Bush's War Avoided TL

Part 1

The early years of the Bush Administration was rocked by tragedy and war. The horror of September 11 sparked anger, frustration, and fear throughout the country which culminated into the war in Afghanistan. However, most Americans do not know how close the United States came to war with Iraq and Saddam Hussein. This is the untold story of how a war in the administration nearly brought war with Saddam Hussein and Iraq.

This story begins before the Bush’s Administration took office. In 1992 Paul Wolfowitz, then #3 of the Secretary of Defense, wrote an article that advocated for a policy of preemption than containment. Wolfowitz also advocated that Saddam Hussein, leader of Iraq, should be removed. Wolfowitz and his article were forgotten until Colin Powell was selected to become the Secretary of State. Powell had been appointed after the Florida recount and during a time of sharp division in the country. Bush, seeking to unify the country, chose Colin Powell because he was an immensely popular figure. During Powell’s acceptance speech he talked about many of his views on foreign policy as well as defense. Some hawks in the Republican Party were worried that Colin Powell would control the State and Defense Department. In order to appease the fears, President Bush appointed Paul Wolfowitz [1] to Secretary of Defense.

Than early in the morning of September 11, a hijacked plane smashed into the NorthTower of the WorldTradeCenter. The United States was caught by surprise as hijacked planes smashed into the twin towers of the WorldTradeCenter. Vice President Danforth was rushed by the Secret Service into a secret bunker underneath the White House. Secretary of State Colin Powell, who had canceled his trip to Peru when President Toledo had become sick, was evacuated from the State Department [2]. The President was hastily brought to Camp David while the Air Force scrambled into the air. The Air Force released orders that any suspicious airplane was to be shot down. By the time the attack was over two planes had hit the TwinTowers, a plane hit the Pentagon, and Flight United 93 had crashed in a field in Pennsylvania. Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz was evacuated before the plane had hit the Pentagon and was on his way to safety. Even the CIA office in Virginia was evacuated. Those who remained in the CIA led by George Tenet began to plan a counterattack. Immediately the CIA decided that the 9/11 was the work of Osama Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda. They began planning a widespread counterattack that involved attack Al-Qaeda in many different countries with the #1 target would be Afghanistan and the Taliban. Meanwhile some in the administration lead by Wolfowitz began to plan to include Iraq into the plan. The lines in the Administration were being drawn.

Four days after the 9/11 attack Bush gathered his war cabinet in order to discuss its next step. Wolfowitz proposes that steps against Iraq should be brought to the table. Powell, shocked, immediately rejected an attack against Iraq arguing that it was still too early to decide whether or not Saddam was involved in the attack. George Tenet and the CIA supported Colin Powell in arguing that any action against Iraq should be tabled. The CIA told the President that there was no proof that Saddam had supported Al-Qaeda. Wolfowitz argued that the CIA had been wrong in the past and were wrong about Iraq. The President decided to go along with the CIA and any action against Iraq was put on hold for now.

[1] In OTL this was Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz was Undersecretary
[2] In OTL, Powell went to Peru and was not in the country during the 9/11 attacks
 
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What's with VP Danforth? No Cheney I take it...

So I'm guessing that Afghanistan becomes the priority for the American military.

How does Iraq turn out I wonder? I've always been of the opinion that it'd devolve into civil war upon Saddam's death...
 
Looks good so far, I've been pondering the results of the same, so I can't wait to see what direction you take it in.
 
Part 2

Meanwhile David Addington [1], who had lead the Alliance of American Leadership which explored the possibility of a presidential run by Halliburton President Dick Cheney, wrote a controversial article that argued that the 9/11 attacks proved that executive powers were too weak and needed to be expanded. This was read by conservative lawyer John Yoo who worked in the OLC (Office of Legal Counsel) of the Justice Department. He wrote a memo to White House Counsel Albert Gonzales that outlined a plan to increase the power of the President that he thought would prevent any future terrorist attacks. This memo called for an expansion of surveillance power especially roving wiretaps, search without owner’s knowledge, and search of phone and email records.

In Congress many bills were introduced within weeks of September 11. Some of these bills included Combating Terrorist Act of 2001 and the Public Safety and Cyber Security Enhancement Act. These efforts soon developed into the USA PATRIOT ACT. The first version of the bill appeared on October 3rd [2] as the PATRIOT ACT of 2001 in the House and was passed as Uniting and Strengthening America Act. After passing through the Senate, the bill was reintroduced to the House as the USA PATRIOT ACT. The bill was debated in Congress as criticism and opposition stalled the bill [3]. David Addington, following the debate, was frustrated. He felt that Congress was stalling and endangering national security in the process. Addington wrote an editorial in the New York Times blasting Congress as playing right into the terrorist’s hands. The Addington’s article emboldened supporters of the bill and they convinced the House to push for a vote. Finally the USA PATRIOT ACT was passed by the House on November 2nd with only three dissenting votes.

Bush calls another meeting with his advisors to discuss the CIA’s plan to attack Afghanistan. Tenet and Wolfowitz began to argue who should take the lead in Afghanistan. Wolfowitz argued that the Pentagon should be in charge while Tenet argued that the Afghanistan War would be a new kind of war that would need more operatives and Special Forces. Bush gives the CIA the go ahead and the CIA began landing operatives in Afghanistan [4].

The question of what to do with detainees was soon debated in the Administration. The question was given to White House Consul Albert Gonzales to decide. Gonzales than handed the problem off to Ambassador Richard Prosper. Richard Prosper had been a war crime prosecutor for Rwanda and was a logical choice to be given the task of deciding what detainees should be tried with. Prosper brought in lawyers from around the world which included David Addington. David Addington proposed that the detainees be tried in special military tribunals [5]. The others in the group shot down the proposal and decided instead to try terrorists in civilian courts. Addington frustrated made contact with John Yoo of the OLC. He and John Yoo discussed the problem and decide to make contact with Halliburton President Dick Cheney who ran Bush’s search for Vice President. Cheney called the President and tried to convince the President to go along with Addington’s plan. It was too late for Prosper had submitted his plan an hour before and it was received with support by Powell and Rice. A day latter, Bush gave the go ahead for trials for terrorists captured. To prevent leakage of information the trials would be held without the media being present.

[1] OTL David Addington was Cheney’s Consul and was the architect of the expansion of executive powers.
[2] OTL the bill was introduced on October 2nd and was signed into law October 26th
[3] In OTL the Administration prodded Congress along to pass the USA PATRIOT ACT.
[4] This occurred in OTL.
[5] In OTL, David Addington and Cheney maneuvered behind Prosper’s team as well as Colin Powell and Rice in order to set up the secret military tribunals.
 
Part 3

George Tenet was worried with the plan to try terrorists captured in Afghanistan. He felt that critical information would be leaked out of the court room and would tip off the enemy. Tenet met with the President to discuss the trials that were being planned. Tenet argued that the CIA needed to interrogate detainees first in order to take advantage of information before it could be leaked out to Al-Qaeda. Tenet proposed that captured fighters would be first brought to secret prisons that would be known as “blacksites” which would later include sites in Afghanistan, Eastern Europe, and Guantanamo BayCuba [1]. Tenet than ran into the problem of interrogation tactics. Tenet felt that current laws were too lax and need to be tightened. A meeting with John Yoo would give Tenet a new ally in the government. Yoo had heard that Tenet had been complaining that interrogation doctrine was preventing the gathering of useful information. John Yoo than set a memo to William Haynes, the General Counsel for the Defense Department that detailed his opinions on torture and interrogation. Yoo wisely sent a copy to Tenet at the CIA. Tenet intrigued by this memo sought Yoo at the Justice Department. The two discussed interrogation tactics and torture and agreed that a new definition of interrogation would be needed. In 2002, John Yoo coauthored a new memo called the Yoo Memo [2]. This memo redefined torture narrowly in order to allow for harsher interrogation tactics. The Bybee memo was supported by Tenet but met opposition from Powell who felt the proposed definition was too narrow. Powell was overruled when Tenet, Wolfowitz, and Haynes supported the memo. The harsher interrogation tactics were soon implemented at the CIA’s blacksites.

On September 26th, first CIA operative landed and began making contact with anti-Taliban forces especially the Northern Alliance which were led by warlords. Using vast amounts of cash, the CIA began buying the support of the Northern Alliance. Soon the covert operation was nearing completion and the CIA now needed the Pentagon to send troops. Wolfowitz, who was still unhappy that the CIA had been given the lead, began dragging his feet to send military troops. During a NSC meeting, the CIA accused Wolfowitz of stalling the military operation. Wolfowitz asked the President to be put in charge of the operation of Afghanistan. However Powell, remembering Wolfowitz’s proposition to target Iraq, supported Tenet and the CIA and the CIA was put in charge of the operation [3]. On October 2nd, the United States began bombing Afghanistan and the Northern Alliance launches a ground attack on the Taliban. Kabul then fell in November 10th and the Taliban were on the run. The CIA discovered that Osama bin Laden was holed up in Tora Bora ironically constructed with help by the CIA during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. The CIA asked the military to set up blocking positions to cut off any escape into Pakistan as well as to commence bombing operations [4]. While Osama managed to escape into Pakistan, the military was able to capture the #2 of Al-Qaeda Ayman al Zawahiri. With the success of the war in Afghanistan, Tenet gained a boost of popularity. The CIA and Tenet were declared heroes by the media and the population. A new question soon arose in Afghanistan. During the war the Northern Alliance captured many Al-Qaeda forces. The CIA began offering large cash sums to any prisoners delivered to them. One of the most important figures captured was Ibn al-Sheikh al-Libi who had headed a terrorist training camp in Afghanistan. The FBI had wanted to take al-Libi back to the United States and put him on trial. The CIA intervene and take al-Libi into their custody and was taken to Egypt were he was tortured for information [5]. Al Zawahiri on the other hand was considered too valuable to be transferred to Egypt for interrogation and was transferred to a CIA blacksite in Afghanistan. He was among one of the first detainees to face the new harsher tactics used by the CIA for the next couple of years. In 2006 the Washington Post would report he was one of the detainees to be waterboarded by the CIA.

Wolfowitz, however, was still looking for a way to prove that Saddam and Iraq were tied to the attacks on the TwinTowers. Wolfowitz was in turn aided by the INC or the Iraq National Congress. The INC, under leadership of Ahmed Chalabi, was an advocacy group for an overthrow of Saddam Hussein. Wolfowitz knew that he was opposed in the Bush Administration by the CIA and the State Department so he turned to Chalabi and the INC to gain evidence against Iraq. Wolfowitz even went so far as to create a secret intelligence gathering team known as the OSP or Office of Special Plans headed by Richard Perle [6]. The group’s mission was to process reports that were given by the INC as well as searching for new evidence and sources. Working out of an office in the Pentagon, this new group was given access to all information available to the government in order to find a link between Iraq and Osama bin Laden. Wolfowitz found much support among neocon hawks of the administration. The hawks and Wolfowitz envisioned a new role of America to transform authoritarian regimes into democratic countries. They wanted to use Iraq as the model for other countries such as North Korea, Syria, and Iran. Unfortunately for Wolfowitz, he encountered much resistance for preemption from Senior Officers in the Army especially from General Eric Shinseki.

[1] Instead of being the largest detention center it is just one of many blacksites the CIA had set up.
[2] OTL the Bybee memo
[3] In OTL, Rumsfeld is put in charge of operations in Afghanistan.
[4] Rumsfeld refused to do this in OTL for the blocking would require a substantial amount of troops to guard a large border.
[5] Same as OTL.
[6] In OTL the OSP was headed by Douglas Feith.
 
I would advocate having Osama killed or captured in this ATL.
That way, you have one less reason for the US looking for more adventures.

In my opinion, the desire to oust Saddam from Iraq among the US public (and with it the support for the Iraqi invasion) was partly because of the failure in finding Osama in OTL.
 
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