Pretty much what the title says. Who wins in 1996 after a Bush/Quayle victory in '92? Does Clinton run again and win? Does Gore, Cuomo, or Gephardt? Do the Republicans get credit for the economic boom (as time goes on we discover Clinton had very little to do with it) and win a fifth consecutive term for the presidency? Who do they nominate? Dole? Quayle? Someone else?
Bush wins in 1992. Who's elected President in 1996?
- Thread starter dw93
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Dayton Kitchens
Banned
Probably Gore. He is still reasonably young. Still ambitious. And traditionally the number two of a failed ticket has a leg up when it comes to the nomination again.
And the GOP ticket is very unlikely to pull off the trick of a fifth straight successful election.
And the GOP ticket is very unlikely to pull off the trick of a fifth straight successful election.
A 1996 where the Republicans have been in office for 16 years seems to be the kind of environment where Mario Cuomo would stop being the Hamlet on the Hudson and actually contest the nomination. He seems the likely nominee and winner, though a dark horse may be able to knock him out. Maybe Ann Richards, Evan Bayh, or even Joe Biden.
I was kind of wondering this myself. While Clinton would've lost in this scenario, he did better in the electoral college than Dukakis did in '88 and still probably would have in this scenario, so a better electoral result may not discredit the DNC entirely. I think there would be a huge debate in the Democratic primaries about it though.
Can we be sure that Cuomo would win in 1994, even with Bush in the White House? Yes, it's true that his loss was pretty narrow in OTL http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_gubernatorial_election,_1994 and that it was based partly on the unpopularity of Clinton and the Democratic Congress in 1994. Yet in part it was also based on his administration having had some wear and tear after a dozen years in Albany. One should note that even in 1990, Cuomo only got 53.2% of the vote (though he won easily because of divided opposition). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_gubernatorial_election,_1990
Even if Cuomo wins in this alt-1994, if he just squeaks through with a narrow plurality, that may lead to some skepticism about his electability in 1996.
Even if Cuomo wins in this alt-1994, if he just squeaks through with a narrow plurality, that may lead to some skepticism about his electability in 1996.
This is true. While I agree that the DLC would be somewhat discredited for a Clinton loss in '92, Cuomo's popularity in New York was on the decline by the 1990s, and with the landslide defeat of Mondale in '84 and the decisive defeat of Dukakis in '88 still being recent at that point, a DLC candidate like Gore or Gephardt could win the nomination over a liberal like Cuomo.
I would say that Clinton would definitely be out of the running for the Democratic Nomination. As was proved in OTL Governor Howard Dean D-Vt may be elected Governor of Vermont but there is no way that he can win the Presidential Nomination. Former Governor of Jerry Brown is also unlikely to win the nomination. The question is would Senator Al Gore give up his Senate seat to run for President. He would be the youngest of the group Governor Mario Como's star was setting but he did know how to deliver a speech unlike John Kerry.
Vice President Dan Quayle would have the inside tract for the Republican Nomination and if the economy was doing well he might stand a good chance of getting elected.
Vice President Dan Quayle would have the inside tract for the Republican Nomination and if the economy was doing well he might stand a good chance of getting elected.