Bush vs. Kennedy

Alright, I was just thinking that despite the fact that the Kennedy family is the most successful political family in the Democratic Pary, and the Bush family is the most successful political family in the Republican Party, the two families have never (as far as I know) ran against each other on any level. So, what would be the most likely scenario (past or future) for a Bush vs. Kennedy Presidential election? Or even a Senate or Gubenatorial election (could happen, the Bushes were originally from the Northeast)? I would like thoughts from as many people as possible because I was thinking about making a timline about it (since I hit a dead end and/or got bored with my old one). Here were the most likely scenarios I could think of:

1960 - John F. Kennedy vs. Prescott Bush
I know that it sounds like a long shot but since Nixon didn't face any serious challenge in OTL, you never know what might have happened if he had. Plus when I was doing some research I found this on the always accurate Wikipedia: "Eisenhower later included Bush's name on an undated handwritten list of prospective candidates he favored for the 1960 GOP presidential nomination."

1980 - Edward Kennedy vs. George H.W. Bush
Kennedy put up a good challenge to Carter, and Bush ran a strong second to Reagan. Not sure the POD on this one. Maybe Reagan gets the Republican nomination in 1976 and loses (because I don't think any Republican could win in 76 after Watergate). Thus he is no longer a factor in 1980. Then Carter is as unpopular as OTL (or perhaps even more due to butterflies), and Kennedy manages to squeak out a victory in the nomination race.

1980 - Robert Kennedy vs. George H.W. Bush
I was thinking that if RFK doesn't get assassinated, and yet loses the nomination in 1968, maybe he could come back in 1976. He then wins over Ford or Reagan, and Bush challenges the incumbent in 1980.

1984 - Edward Kennedy vs. George H.W. Bush
Reagan assassination is successful, so Bush becomes President. ITTL, Bush is not as popular as Reagan was in OTL, so Kennedy thinks it is worth a shot to challenge him.

1988 - Edward Kennedy vs. George H.W. Bush
Not sure what the POD would be here either. Maybe an issue that is really really important to Kennedy comes up and convinces him to run. I have no doubt that he could have won the nomination if he wanted it. Does anybody know why Kennedy didn't run IOTL? He was only 56.

2004 - Joseph Kennedy II vs. George W. Bush
Joseph was in Congress for 12 years and considered running for Massechusettes governor in 2002. If he had, and beat Mitt Romney, he may have been in position to challenge Bush in 2004. Probably not until 2008 though.

2008 - Joseph Kennedy II vs. Jeb Bush or George W. Bush
See above for how Kennedy could get into this posititon. Maybe if George W. Bush's political career gets delayed somehow, they could have a showdown in 2008. Jeb could also be in this postition if his brother were more popular. Still I doubt the Republicans would want back-to-back Bushes. So this TL may require George to lose in 2000 or 2004. This presents another interesting (but somewhat unlikely) scenario: Kennedy beats Bush in 04, and Jeb attempts to avenge his brother in 08.

I was thinking about future matchups, but that could be a bit of a problem. Members of the Bush family will probably only be future contenders if George is viewed more favorably in hindsight then he is now. But that would take until 2016, 2020 or maybe even 2024 (if it happens at all). Jeb is already 56, so unless George's image rehabilitates faster then I expect, he's probably out. George Prescott Bush (son of Jeb) is very politically outspoken although he hasn't run for public office yet. He's only 33, so the earliest he could make a legitimate Presidential run is probably 2016 or 2020. As for Kennedys, Patrick (son of Ted) is a Congressman, but he has had some scandals which may inhibit his career (but then again, so did his dad and it didn't hurt him that much). RFK Jr. considered running for the Senate in New York, and as far as I know he still might. But he's 55 and has no experience in elected office, so I don't think he could climb the ladder that fast. Joseph II (a son of RFK who I mentioned earlier) is considered to be a possible candidate for Ted Kennedy's now vacant Senate seat. He has been a congressman before, so he could be a Presidential candidate in 2012 or 2016 if he takes the seat. Both Christopher and Max Kennedy (also sons of RFK) are politically active and in their 40s, so you never know what could happen there. Does anyone else have any ideas that I haven't thought of? I don't know quite as much about the local races, but if anyone does know of a Bush/Kennedy race that could have happened in an alternate TL (maybe have more of the Bushes stay in Conneticut?) or in the future, I'd like to know. Although I doubt it would be as fun to write a TL about a Senate or Governor's race as it would be if it were a Presidential race.
 
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Penelope

Banned
My bet is Ted Kennedy picking up the 1976 nomination, defeating Ford easily, and having a George H. W. Bush go against him in 1980.

For future match-ups, maybe Max Kennedy vs. George Prescott Bush in the 2020s or 2032.
 
My bet is Ted Kennedy picking up the 1976 nomination, defeating Ford easily, and having a George H. W. Bush go against him in 1980.

Yeah I thought about that one, but Kennedy didn't even run in the primaries in 1976, citing "family reasons" according to Wikipedia. What type of POD would change his mind? Also, it would probably be better to have him beat Reagan in 1976, otherwise Reagan is the obvious frontrunner in 1980 just like OTL. Of course, Bush could always topple Reagan in the primaries due to butterflies.
 

Penelope

Banned
Yeah I thought about that one, but Kennedy didn't even run in the primaries in 1976, citing "family reasons" according to Wikipedia. What type of POD would change his mind? Also, it would probably be better to have him beat Reagan in 1976, otherwise Reagan is the obvious frontrunner in 1980 just like OTL. Of course, Bush could always topple Reagan in the primaries due to butterflies.

Hmm. Possibly.

If he wins against Carter in an upset, that already makes him the first man to beat an incumbent President in the Primaries, I think. Not sure he could beat Reagan with the utter failure that Carter was.
 
Well, what do you call RFK in '68? He outflanked Johnson and forced his withdrawal (surrender) from the race. Or Estes Kefauver doing the same to Truman in '52?
 
If RFK can beat Reagan in 1976, he'll beat Bush Sr. in 1980. I think Bush Sr. will wait until RFK is term-limited in 1984, unless the 22nd doesn't exist ITTL. As for RFK Jr., I will repeat what I said in July on the Gore in '04 thread: A convicted felon (heroin '83) who is too liberal to win the nomination or the general. Period. If you were wondering why those EPA rumours were quashed in January, now you know. Karl would have a field day.
 
Well, what do you call RFK in '68? He outflanked Johnson and forced his withdrawal (surrender) from the race. Or Estes Kefauver doing the same to Truman in '52?

Yes, but neither of them actually won the nomination. They just knocked out the President and others benifited from it. And technically RFK didn't even do that. Eugene McCarthy scared LBJ by running so strong in New Hampshire. RFK, realizing that LBJ was beatable then got into the race and LBJ dropped out. All in all I think McCarthy had more to do with the whole thing.

Anyway, I think what scifiguy meant is that Kennedy would be the first to single-handedly beat a sitting President.

Oh, and I tend to agree with you about RFK Jr. I just threw him out there because he is a polticial activist, and well, people have overcome scandals before so it's not completely out of the realm of possibility. Though I agree that it is very unlikely.
 
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1960 - John F. Kennedy vs. Prescott Bush
I know that it sounds like a long shot but since Nixon didn't face any serious challenge in OTL, you never know what might have happened if he had. Plus when I was doing some research I found this on the always accurate Wikipedia: "Eisenhower later included Bush's name on an undated handwritten list of prospective candidates he favored for the 1960 GOP presidential nomination."

I dont see this one working out, unless you manage to remove Nixon from the political scene. he was simply too powerful at the time. And there are a host of other names which are as or more likely than Bush to get the nomination if nixon is out. VP, though, that might happen.

1980 - Edward Kennedy vs. George H.W. Bush
Kennedy put up a good challenge to Carter, and Bush ran a strong second to Reagan. Not sure the POD on this one. Maybe Reagan gets the Republican nomination in 1976 and loses (because I don't think any Republican could win in 76 after Watergate). Thus he is no longer a factor in 1980. Then Carter is as unpopular as OTL (or perhaps even more due to butterflies), and Kennedy manages to squeak out a victory in the nomination race.

This is one of the more likely scenarios. A better campaign by kennedy and/or a very different/nonexistent hostage crisis is probably enough to push Kennedy over the top. Not sure if Bush can deny reagan the nomination, but he can give it a shot, and there is always 1984 if that doesnt work out. Kennedy probably takes this one through incumbency if nothing else.

1980 - Robert Kennedy vs. George H.W. Bush
I was thinking that if RFK doesn't get assassinated, and yet loses the nomination in 1968, maybe he could come back in 1976. He then wins over Ford or Reagan, and Bush challenges the incumbent in 1980.

IMHO, possibly the best option here. RFK wasnt going to get the nomination. Assuming that he bides his time in 72, and the democratic candidate (McGovern? Muskie?) goes down in flames, he is well placed for a run in 1976. Nixon tries to get his own candidate, maybe Connally, on the ticket, but reagan isnt going to be denied (Ford being a non-factor without being the incumbent). Of course, this assumes no watergate or comparable scandal. if it happens, it will go much like OTL, but 8 years of butterflies are enough that reagan may win (which is best for the scenario, because it ties up a lose end four years down the road). RFK vs Reagan will be interesting, but I would give RFK the benefit of the doubt. this leaves Bush in a strong position to claim the nomination. 1980 isnt a great year to be running for reelection, but I think RFK may be able to hold on and win.

1984 - Edward Kennedy vs. George H.W. Bush
Reagan assassination is successful, so Bush becomes President. ITTL, Bush is not as popular as Reagan was in OTL, so Kennedy thinks it is worth a shot to challenge him.

This one will be close. Reagan's absence will hurt, but the sympathy vote will buoy Bush. My money would be on Bush to win here, but somewhat closer than IOTL.

1988 - Edward Kennedy vs. George H.W. Bush
Not sure what the POD would be here either. Maybe an issue that is really really important to Kennedy comes up and convinces him to run. I have no doubt that he could have won the nomination if he wanted it. Does anybody know why Kennedy didn't run IOTL? He was only 56.

kennedy in '88 is viable. He will have to see off a fairly crowded primary field, but in '84 the nomination was probably his for the taking, and the same can probably happen in 1988, albiet with a higher possibility of a strong challenge (Hart, Jackson, Biden, Cuomo, and Gore being possible spoilers). I think Kennedy wins this one as long as he runs a moderatly competent campaign.

2004 - Joseph Kennedy II vs. George W. Bush
Joseph was in Congress for 12 years and considered running for Massechusettes governor in 2002. If he had, and beat Mitt Romney, he may have been in position to challenge Bush in 2004. Probably not until 2008 though.

Might do so, although there may be criticism of his "inexperience". Not sure if he could stand out enough in the primaries to win. kennedy may be able to tip this race for the democrats (it was close enough IOTL), but might not.

2008 - Joseph Kennedy II vs. Jeb Bush or George W. Bush
See above for how Kennedy could get into this posititon. Maybe if George W. Bush's political career gets delayed somehow, they could have a showdown in 2008. Jeb could also be in this postition if his brother were more popular. Still I doubt the Republicans would want back-to-back Bushes. So this TL may require George to lose in 2000 or 2004. This presents another interesting (but somewhat unlikely) scenario: Kennedy beats Bush in 04, and Jeb attempts to avenge his brother in 08.

Maybe McCain wins in 2000, and runs an administration somewhere between Bush IOTL and McCain's primary stance. Bush, meanwhile, stays in Texas (maybe taking Phil Graham's senate seat instead of Cornyn), and wins the nomination in 2008. Kennedy, meanwhile, is the governor of Massachusetts (elected '02, reelected '06), and takes the nomination over Clinton and John Edwards type dark horse (Obama being butterflied away for the present). General disaffection with the Republicans over the past eight years gives kennedy the edge.
 
No one has mentioned JFK Jr.
It's very easy to butterfly away his plane crash in July 1999. You can even have him run for Al D'Amato's Senate seat in 96 (OTL, Chuck Schumer's seat), which he'd undoubtedly win. Or he stakes his claim on Moynihan's seat, butterflying Hillary away.
Alternately, have him run for Mayor of New York City in the wake of 9/11, which he'd also probably win. It's a short jump from there to have him be the guy giving the great keynote speech at the 2004 DNC, and probably the natural choice for the Dem nod in 08. Of course, you couldn't have a Kennedy-CLinton ticket (unless she stays out of NY), and Obama probably wouldn't have made as big of a splash, so who knows who'd get the VP slot. Probably a longtime Senate Democrat friend of Ted K's. Maybe Blanche Lincoln (woman, southern state, and a last name that is hard to beat).
 
How about a Kennedy/Bush ticket, as in my TL "Flight of Fate"? :) No party switch was required. I just might throw in a shocker towards the end...
 
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