Bush Runs in 2012

So apparently Trump said he thinks Bush could of won in 2012, so the question is could he? And how would he do in the general election.
 
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He'd lose, and worse than Romney did. The memory of his brother's two terms were too fresh, heck that was part of the reason Romney lost that election.
 
It would be even more humiliate defeat than on '16 premiers. People remember still very well GWB.
 
Best case scenario: Obama wins at least 400 EV, soundly defeating Jeb.

What I think more likely is that Obama wins all the states he did in 2012 in OTL plus North Carolina. Apart from NC, Romney won every state which he won by at least 7.82 percent. (Though he won NE-02 by "only" 7.17.) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012 While I agree that Jeb would have done worse than Romney, I don't think he would do *that* much worse. Candidates do matter, but in as politically polarized a nation as the US was by 2012, with relatively few swing voters, they don't matter as much as they once did. I believe that there was probably about 45 percent of the electorate that would vote for *any* plausible Republican over Obama.
 
Well Obama was more vulnerable in 2012 then in 2008 (when the whole world was enamored with him- Remember the Nobel Peace Prize?) and Romney had a tough time squeaking through the primary. Seeing as Bush would compete with a lot of Romney's base (white collar, middle and upper-class fiscal conservatives/establishment types) it could have worked. Jeb Bush would have also had an easier time taking voters from more social conservatives in the further right Gingrich, ect. camps, due to having the Bush name on his resume. So yes, I could see him doing a successful campaign. The risk would be that he would merely split the establishment vote and funding with Romney and neither would be successful in getting the nomination.

PS: I just love following the US elections. Best. Reality. TV show. Ever. Seriously, you guys have the most entertaining election process in the world, especially this year where big chunks of the Democratic and Republican electorates are in revolt (ie. they aren't voting for the establishment vetted candidate (gasp!) how dare they!). The fact that the whole process lasts nearly 2 years really adds to the big tension buildup (and gives all the candidates plenty of chances to say outrageous things on TV). Contrast with my country's elections this past fall which were between 3 candidates: Slithering Lizard, Entitled Child and Taupe Wallpaper. If you want proof of that description just watch John Oliver.
 
Well Obama was more vulnerable in 2012 then in 2008 (when the whole world was enamored with him- Remember the Nobel Peace Prize?) and Romney had a tough time squeaking through the primary. Seeing as Bush would compete with a lot of Romney's base (white collar, middle and upper-class fiscal conservatives/establishment types) it could have worked. Jeb Bush would have also had an easier time taking voters from more social conservatives in the further right Gingrich, ect. camps, due to having the Bush name on his resume. So yes, I could see him doing a successful campaign. The risk would be that he would merely split the establishment vote and funding with Romney and neither would be successful in getting the nomination.

I'm inclined to this line of thinking, myself, especially since basically every thread about the 2008 or 2012 election on the board results in a consensus of, "The Republicans do EVEN WORSE than OTL." Who knew our timeline was the best-case scenario for the Republicans in '08 and '12?:p:p

But I'll go one step further and say that I can see a way for him to do slightly better than Romney. Lots of pluses for Jeb in 2012 and one real downside. As mentioned, the Bush legacy means he's going to lose. But as badly as Romney? Points in his favor:

1) Romney had a long, drawn-out primary fight that made him look weak. Bush could potentially win with the 2012 GOP primary electorate simply with name recognition. No significant challenges mounted from upstart right-wingers fueled by voters who felt the party they supported from 2001-2009 was being abandoned. Sure, it's not a cake walk, but Bush will emerge as a consensus much earlier and wrap things up by Super Tuesday at the latest.

2) Romney had to juke fairly hard to the right to win over enough conservatives to counter his record as governor. Bush doesn't have to juke left or right, he just has to be a Bush. His record is sufficiently conservative for 2012 that he can stay vague in the primaries and moderate successfully in the general. He can campaign on the Gang of 8 immigration reform and can successfully attack Obamacare (unlike Romney, who signed MA's healthcare reform into law).

3) Romney had troubles among Christian conservatives that Bush simply wouldn't. Though neither are going to get those blue-collar Trump supporters to come out, which is going to doom them both.

4) 2012 is also much closer to Bush's time as governor, and the economy is still shaky enough in that state (in 2012) that voters still remember him with a rosy glow. And Florida is a swingy state. If nothing else, it means sinking more democratic campaign money into Florida.

But he's still a Bush. He's not going to win, but his defeat does result in a very different post mortem from the RNC. IOTL they said they needed to do better with Latino voters. Bush likely does okay with Latinos. So who do they go looking for? Do they correctly notice blue collar white men are their missing voters? Or maybe (and this is the dream) they decide it's moderates in general they're missing, as conservative votes just aren't there. Interesting possibilities.
 
1) Romney had a long, drawn-out primary fight that made him look weak. Bush could potentially win with the 2012 GOP primary electorate simply with name recognition. No significant challenges mounted from upstart right-wingers fueled by voters who felt the party they supported from 2001-2009 was being abandoned. Sure, it's not a cake walk, but Bush will emerge as a consensus much earlier and wrap things up by Super Tuesday at the latest.

2) Romney had to juke fairly hard to the right to win over enough conservatives to counter his record as governor. Bush doesn't have to juke left or right, he just has to be a Bush. His record is sufficiently conservative for 2012 that he can stay vague in the primaries and moderate successfully in the general. He can campaign on the Gang of 8 immigration reform and can successfully attack Obamacare (unlike Romney, who signed MA's healthcare reform into law).

3) Romney had troubles among Christian conservatives that Bush simply wouldn't. Though neither are going to get those blue-collar Trump supporters to come out, which is going to doom them both.

4) 2012 is also much closer to Bush's time as governor, and the economy is still shaky enough in that state (in 2012) that voters still remember him with a rosy glow. And Florida is a swingy state. If nothing else, it means sinking more democratic campaign money into Florida.

But he's still a Bush. He's not going to win, but his defeat does result in a very different post mortem from the RNC. IOTL they said they needed to do better with Latino voters. Bush likely does okay with Latinos. So who do they go looking for? Do they correctly notice blue collar white men are their missing voters? Or maybe (and this is the dream) they decide it's moderates in general they're missing, as conservative votes just aren't there. Interesting possibilities.
Bush overwhelmingly failed to defend his record from attacks from the right and from Christian social conservatives this year, I don't see why we should assume he will sweep the primaries four years ago.
 
Bush overwhelmingly failed to defend his record from attacks from the right and from Christian social conservatives this year, I don't see why we should assume he will sweep the primaries four years ago.

I'm only "assuming it" in the sense that I can see it as a possibility, and am laying that out in a thread.

As for failing to defend attacks from the right in 2016, we've seen the party migrate significantly to the right in the last four years. Appeasing the base in 2012 requires less from Bush than it did this time around.

My contention is that Romney was more of a compromise for the base in 2012 than Bush would've been. Would he have been a perfect fit for them? No. Would he have been sufficient to curtail stiff challenges from the right in the primaries? This is my contention.
 
Well regardless of the 2012 election, I am looking forward to watching the 2016 election get into full swing, as it has been the most entertaining one in years! I am kinda hoping for a Sanders v Trump election just because of the huge amount of pure horror it would generate in both parties at the other (and even their own) presidential candidate. Also an extra year of outragous Trump speeches would be fun (Imagine what he would say in a speecch about a self-declared Socialist like Sanders!). Although having a Canadian born born presidential candidate would be cool (native born, overseas American or whatever, if Conrad Black can claim he was always Canadian then so is Cruz, besides Americans always claim "half of Churchill").

So exciting! :D
 
The memory of Dubya was still fresh in the minds of everyone (including many conservatives, some of whom saw Bush as a sellout), and nothing about his current primary campaign suggest he would have been a great campaigner.

If he can scare off Romney (and his mere presence is probably enough to scare off Perry, not that that turned out to mean much), he probably gets the same path to the nomination Romney had, as the "sane" candidate running against people like Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain or Rick Santorum. If Romney stays in, then they split the "establishment" vote until one of them drops out.

He's toast against Obama, who can just say "Your brother wrecked the economy so badly we still haven't gotten out of this hole. Why on earth would we give you a chance to finish the job." Memories of the disasters of the GWB presidency were still very fresh (indeed, even this year you'll notice that Jeb mostly avoided bringing his brother out into the spotlight, and was more or less pilloried whenever he so much as hinted that his presidency would have any relation to GWB's; imagine how it would look when things were even fresher).
 
He and Romney split the establishment vote. sSantorium wins the nomination. Obama 61 percent Santorium 38 percent, Obama 455 ( That is OTL plus Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Texas, Montana, Arizons.and Alasaka) .Santorium 83
 
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