Bush catches Osama

nbcman

Donor
Minimal impact at that point. The major issue in the election was the economy-and McCain's gaffes about what he would do about the economy if he was elected. The people that were going to vote for Obama over the war in Iraq probably would not have changed their votes if bin Laden was captured unless Al-Qaida disintegrated after bin Laden's capture.
 
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I agree with nbcman, I'd say it has more impact on the Bush legecay then the election. McCain and Republicans would try to use it but I suspect except for most Americans after a brief moment of 'about fraking time' then they move on with their concerns.
 
The economy did not become the major issue until the middle of the year.

Whatever the case, it would help Obama, because McCain, being one who supports the war, would be robbed of the primary threat to homeland security that justifies it.
 
George Bush catches Osama Bin Laden in early 2008. How does this effect the outcome of the election?

In early 2008, no real difference except that in November Bush would be a little less unpopular, and so the election would be a little closer, saving a couple GOP Senate seats.

Only way an Osama capture might actually change the election outcome is if it happened in late October.
 
The economy did not become the major issue until the middle of the year.

Whatever the case, it would help Obama, because McCain, being one who supports the war, would be robbed of the primary threat to homeland security that justifies it.

No, it would help McCain. Nobody would claim that capturing bin Laden had eliminated the al-Qaida threat. And it would boost Bush's job approval numbers, which would help every GOP candidate.
 
Minimal impact at that point. The major issue in the election was the economy-and McCain's gaffes about what he would do about the economy if he was elected. The people that were going to vote for Obama over the war in Iraq probably would not have changed their votes if bin Laden was captured unless Al-Qaida disintegrated after bin Laden's capture.

Bingo. Although, note that while the Bush recession started in December 2007, the economic crisis really didn't hit public perception in the summer of 2008, so the backlash against the GOP's economic policy in later 2008 will overshadow the early 2008 events specified by the OP.

No, it would help McCain. Nobody would claim that capturing bin Laden had eliminated the al-Qaida threat. And it would boost Bush's job approval numbers, which would help every GOP candidate.

But Bush's job rating's would still crash in response to the economic crisis.

Also, it's hard to see Bush and McCain recovering from the negatives associated with Iraq without a better outcome there circa 2004-5...
 
But Bush's job rating's would still crash in response to the economic crisis.

His ratings would have had a higher floor tho. The political damage to Bush from the financial collapse was exacerbated by the fact that it played into an already-existing meme of incompetence, and capturing bin Laden would have countered that meme.
 
It would have briefly brought Bush's administration back to life, but after months of McCain and the Republicans shouting "WE'VE GOT HIM!" public opinion moves on and then swings to the Democrats once the crash occurs.
 
If the annoucement came in July or August, that would all but cement Republican strength for the election. Victory makes you forget about your daily worries. Just look at the Romans.
 
If this happens before the convention it might butterfly away Sarah Palin as the VP pick. McCain may feel more confident in his chances and go for a less base friendly candidate like Ridge or maybe even Lieberman.
 
Picking Liberman would've made me even more likely to vote for McCain... Palin just annoyed me, but I voted for him despite that.
 
If it did happen McCain might get a 5 percent poll boost and could butterfly his gaffe away. Also butterflies could result in Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, or Joe Liebermen being picked for VP.
 
His ratings would have had a higher floor tho. The political damage to Bush from the financial collapse was exacerbated by the fact that it played into an already-existing meme of incompetence, and capturing bin Laden would have countered that meme.

Honestly, even by early by 2008 the Bush brand was the touch of death. Maybe before 2005, 2006 at the latest, but 2008 is way too late to salvage the Bush brand for the GOP.

Butterflying away Palin would help McCain some, but would be unlikely to wi nb the election in the face of other factors (a 2 term incumbent with awful ratings is historically a super strong indicator of an opposition party win).
 
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