Bush assassinated in 2005: candidates in '08

Let's say GW Bush and Mikheil Saakashvili are both killed on 5/10/05. Dick Cheney is now president (yuck!).
Who are the nominees in 2008, who wins the Presidential Election and which party controls the House and Senate?
 
I'd been thinking of a similar situation myself -- only where 9/11 didn't happen, but five years later a dirty bomb goes off in NYC killing Bush. My guess, if he wants a free hand governing, Cheney's going to have to agree not to appoint a VP who's interested in running in 08 (and to not run himself -- though I imagine he's still not inclined to anyway...)

The natural frontrunner for the Dems would still be Hillary -- though that just makes me wonder more what would happen if she was taken out of the running in this scenario -- and McCain's run for the nomination would just get easier...
 
I don't see any change in the lineup of Democrats or Republicans candidates ITTL. Cheney in the White House does not stop the economic collapse. Also since Cheney does not stop the Iraq war, the Democrat and, I assume Barack Obama, wins.
 

Hyperion

Banned
So if Cheney takes over as President, who would be most likely to take over as the VP post.

Another big issue, what members of the Bush cabinet might not be willing to stick around of Cheney is driving the bus.

One big appointment I would be curious about, if/when Donald Rumsfelt leaves the Secretary of Defense job, would Robert Gates be put up for the job? If Gates doesn't get the job, that could have massive implications for the Obama administration, assuming of course Obama gets the job. For such a high profile post, Gates is the only major cabinet post I recall, at least in the last decade, to be nominated by one President from one party, and be kept on be a second President, and one from another party to boot.
 
In a story I am writing, very little changes. Cheyney gets to reside over the worst three years of the OTL Bush administration, and likely due to health issues, will not survive his three year tenure.

In my story at least, it had Colin Powell as VP acend to the Presidency, but refuse to run in 08', leading to Edwards narrowly beating McCain. Edwards is impeached for corruption, VP Obama acends to the presidency and is trounced by Jeb Bush in '12.

While the scenario may differ in real life expect two things:

1) George W Bush will likely be revered among the general public like JFK was before him. Bear in mind that the worst years and events of his Presidency - Hurricane Katrina, the Iraqi insurgency, the various Congressional scandals, the financial crisis - will get LBJ'ed onto Dick Cheyney and his likely Democratic successor. Expect to see Jeb Bush be the pressured front runner in 2012 for the GOP.

2) Cheyney will have one well of a tenure as President for the reasons given above. I'd honestly be suprised if his heart lasts the whole three years.
 
I think Cheney decides (if he's not impeached at some point) to run in 2008, but he gets a strong primary challenge from a moderate Republican. Lincoln Chafee if he's still decent, John McCain if he really screw up things.
 
Many Republicans would object to Powell because of his views on abortion. Condelezza Rice would be a possibility. Her views on abortion are unknown and she probably does not want to run for president. If Cheney dies in office, I think we would have two Black presidents in a row. I don't see anyting ITTL that stops the rise of Barack Obama.
 
Alternatively, Cheney could declare an extreme national emergency and invoke Executive Directive 51.

The presidential directive says that, when the president considers an emergency to have occurred, an "Enduring Constitutional Government" comprising "a cooperative effort among the executive, legislative, and judicial branches of the Federal Government, coordinated by the President," will take the place of the nation's regular government. Conservative activist Jerome Corsi and Marjorie Cohn of the National Lawyers Guild have said that this is a violation of the Constitution of the United States in that the three branches of government are separate and equal, with no single branch coordinating the others.[3][4] The directive, created by the president, claims that the president has the power to declare a catastrophic emergency. It does not specify who has the power to declare the emergency over.
The directive further says that, in the case of such an emergency, the new position of "National Continuity Coordinator" would be filled by the assistant to the president for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism (this position was held under the Bush Administration by Frances Townsend, until her resignation on November 19, 2007, and Kenneth L. Wainstein;[5] the position is presently held by John O. Brennan.) The directive also specifies that a "Continuity Policy Coordination Committee", to be chaired by a senior director of the Homeland Security Council staff, and selected by the National Continuity Coordinator, shall be "the main day-to-day forum for such policy coordination".
The directive ends by describing a number of "annexes", of which Annex A is described as being not classified but which does not appear on the directive's Web page:
"(23) Annex A and the classified Continuity Annexes, attached hereto, are hereby incorporated into and made a part of this directive."(24) Security. This directive and the information contained herein shall be protected from unauthorized disclosure, provided that, except for Annex A, the Annexes attached to this directive are classified and shall be accorded appropriate handling, consistent with applicable Executive Orders."The "National Continuity Policy, Annex A, Categories of Departments and Agencies", available from the Financial and Banking Information Infrastructure Committee website,[6] indicates that "executive departments and agencies are assigned to one of four categories commensurate with their COOP/COG/ECG responsibilities during an emergency".

This would essentially make Cheney President-for-life (meaning about a year or two before he collapses under stress).
 
Many Republicans would object to Powell because of his views on abortion. Condelezza Rice would be a possibility. Her views on abortion are unknown and she probably does not want to run for president. If Cheney dies in office, I think we would have two Black presidents in a row. I don't see anyting ITTL that stops the rise of Barack Obama.

Polls in 96 showed otherwise. He was quite popular in the GOP until he endorsed Obama.
 
I think Cheney decides (if he's not impeached at some point) to run in 2008, but he gets a strong primary challenge from a moderate Republican. Lincoln Chafee if he's still decent, John McCain if he really screw up things.

A moderate would not be successful in the Republican primaries. Read a newspaper.
 

Thande

Donor
I agree an interesting question is who Cheney picks as VP and whether this person is in a position to run for president in 2008 or not. I mentioned this same WI a while back and a lot of people claimed Cheney would go for Rumsfeld due to their personal relationship, even though Rumsfeld was about as popular as venereal disease at this point...
 
if Cheney picks a vice president with White House ambitions', he or she would be in a good position to win the nomination. He or she would lose the general election.
 
If Cheney runs in 2008 ITTL, he loses in a landslide. He Has to take the blame for the bad economy,the unpopular war and Katrina.
 

Hyperion

Banned
Another issue to cosider.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_W._Bush_Supreme_Court_candidates

In 2005, one member of the US Supreme Court retired, and another died.

In this timeline, that would still be some time away, so you are looking at two Supreme Court Justices that Cheney would have to appoint, and this is also not taking into account the possibility of butterflies resulting in a third or even a fourth retirement or death later on.

So not only would you have Cheney having to find a VP candidate, but at least two Supreme Court Justice posts would have to be filled all in a short time span.

And this is also assuming that none of Bush's Cabinet members or other high level officials decide that they are not able to work with Cheney, or vise versa. I don't see any mass resignations or firings, but I wouldn't necessarily be surprised of one or two people ended up quitting or being quietly removed from their post.
 
obama would proably still win. like another person said bush would most likely get revered abd better respected after his untimely demise.
 
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