Bush '41 and a Second Term.

In 2004, VP Gephardt suffered numerous challenges from men like Howard Dean, John Kerry, and Wesley Clark. Gephardt managed to squeak through a victory only in the final days of the primary, choosing Senator John Edwards of South Carolina as his running mate. The Republicans ultimately chose George Walker Bush, son of President George HW Bush, with John Engler as his running mate. Bush/Engler ultimately beat Gephardt/Edwards.

Assuming FL and TX gubernatorial elections go as in OTL, Jeb Bush would be the much more logical Bush son to nominate, given the chance to lock up Florida's electoral votes.
 
Some retcons to what I posted earlier:

The economy isn't "sluggish", but it's not as good as it was OTL

Bosnia was fought by Bush the same way Iraq was - with a huge mutinational coalition. At least, that was the plan. France and Germany refused support entirely, and Russia simply wound up madder at the US. In the end, Bosnia was not as succesful as Kuwait, and Milosevic would use this to cement his hold on power.

Gephardt is now Kerrey's Veep, not Harkin


Now then, 1997-2009:

Kerrey's platform going in had been less focus on foreign affairs and more focus on domestic affairs. The opposite platform had nearly cost Bush 1992, and had cost Quayle 1996. Kerrey's resolve would immediately be put to the test when an office building in Oklahoma City was bombed by a man named Timothy McVeigh, in response to President Bush's response to the Waco compound. Kerrey's heartfelt response to the disaster won over many people.

Kerrey's main foreign affairs event was his scaling down of forces abroad.. He didn't completely remove troops from Europe and Asia, but several forces were moved back to the states. Kerrey also continued Bush's platform of humanitarian aid in Somalia, refusing to allow the US to choose sides in the warlod conflict.

The primary highlight of Kerrey's first term was the Universal Health Care Act of 1998, passed before the mid-term elections could upset the Democratic hold on Congress. The midterms came and went, with the GOP picking up a few seats, but the Democrats maintaining a majority in both houses. Kerrey used this as a mandate to lower immigration restrictions, though he refuse several key Democrats' advice to form a Free Trade Zone between the US, Canada, and Mexico.

In 2000 Kerrey won the nomination handily, his only serious competitor being Bill Bradley. Gephardt was retained as running mate. In the Republican camp, the choices came down to either either former VP and Presidential candidate Dan Quayle or Senator John McCain. It was a hard fight, but McCain ultimately came out on top. He chose Lamar Alexander as runnig mate.

The battle between Kerrey/Gephardt and McCain/Alexander was frought with controversy and bitterness. In the end, Kerrey was able to squeak through a victory, though without a majority in the popular vote. Kerrey used this victory to continue his domestic programs. Then the terrorist attacks occurred.

The exact details are different from OTL, but terrorist attacks do occur in late 2001. Kerrey, who had built his presidency on an isolationist platform, was now caught between a rock - letting this attack go unpunished - and a hard place - violiting the very principles he had been elected on. Few men would envy him. In the end, Kerrey bowed to public opinion and commited forces to Afganistan to hunt for Osama. However, Kerrey upset several Republicans when he refused to depose the Taliban. Afganistan quickly went south, and Kerrey's support went with it. The 2002 elections turned both houses over to the GOP, who promptly cut Kerrey's health care and immigration programs down to size, witht he result being Kerrey using his veto power more from 2003-2005 than he had throughout the rest of his presidency.

In 2004, VP Gephardt suffered numerous challenges from men like Howard Dean, John Kerry, and Wesley Clark. Gephardt managed to squeak through a victory only in the final days of the primary, choosing Senator John Edwards of South Carolina as his running mate. The Republicans ultimately chose George Walker Bush, son of President George HW Bush, with John Engler as his running mate. Bush/Engler ultimately beat Gephardt/Edwards.

Bush's first action upon entering the white House was to reform the OOB in Afganistan. The succeses soon seen, like the overthrow of the Taliban and the destruction of several Al-Qaeda bases, were quickly tempered when Bush tried to drum up support for an invasion of Iraq. Bush finally got his war in 2006. However, the fact that war didn't go exactly as planned, combined with an increasingly weak economy, saw a strong Democratic challenge in 2008.

The Democrats in 2008 recovered from 2004 by selecting Governor Mark Warner of Virginia as candidate. His running mate was Evan Bayh of Indiana. Bush put up a strong fight, but the mortgage crisis ultimately doomed his campaign. Warner won a close election, and will be inaugurated the 44th president.

I don't get the part about the terrorist attacks part. After all Bush was a moderately isolationist President before 9-11 yet there was no critiscism about him violating the principles of isolationism by invading Afghanistan because it was an attack on US soil and the president has a duty to respond to that. Also the Taliban would not allow the US in to militarily intervene. Any military missions in Afghanistan would require the overthrow of the Taliban.
 
Lee Atwater does not get the brain tumor and is thus alive and available to give Bush 41 advice to avoid things like the tax deal, to use the political capital gotten from the Gulf War to pass some good economic reforms, and then more effectively hammer Clinton during the 1992 campaign. Two words on the latter: Juanita Broaderick. People can handle adultery, sometimes, but not rape.

I just watched a PBS special on Atwater. I like this idea a lot.
 
Assuming FL and TX gubernatorial elections go as in OTL, Jeb Bush would be the much more logical Bush son to nominate, given the chance to lock up Florida's electoral votes.

Electoral College logic and EC vote counting plays only a small, mostly academic part in the nomination process. I see no reason why Jeb would be any more likely to be "the chosen one" (chosen over W) in TTL then he was in OTL.

I just watched a PBS special on Atwater. I like this idea a lot.

I like the idea as well; unfortunatly Atwater's brain tumor can't be hand waved away so easily, as the cancer cells were there long before the POD here. It could, however, be put off a few years.
 
A couple of thoughts:

1. A different vice-president. A scenario like this was done in the book "Almost America" by Steve Tally. Dan Quayle is dumped from the ticket, Colin Powell is put on, Ross Perot doesn't run (don't know how picking Powell would butterfly away Perot, but anyway) and Bush wins. The Democrats then win in '96 and somehow Quayle becomes a leading Republican candidate for 2000 (odd love of Dan Quayle in this scenario). Anyway, you could go with Powell or maybe even a Bob Dole or something and see if that improves Bush 41's chances.

Interestingly enough the opinion of Republican operatives about Dan Quayle was quite a bit higher than others.

Furthermore it was the opinion of the '92 campaign staff (small POD: they only started up Xmas, '91; start them earlier and Bush will do better) that if Bush had asked Quayle to step aside he would have done so.

Electoral College logic and EC vote counting plays only a small, mostly academic part in the nomination process. I see no reason why Jeb would be any more likely to be "the chosen one" (chosen over W) in TTL then he was in OTL.

Just have Jeb win in '94, and have W. lose. W. becomes baseball commissioner (after all that's the job he actually wanted, and only became Governor when he didn't get it), and Jeb—after running a solid Floridian government—becomes the logical choice for the next GOP candidate in 2000.

Even if they both win Jeb will likely run a better government in Florida, is seen as smarter, has a Hispanic wife, is the elder son, and so on. Jeb probably goes for it over W.
 
Had Bush 41 been re-elected in 1992 we would have avoided the many Clinton scandals. Not just Monica Lewinsky, als Jennifer Flowers, other sex scandals. Also things like I think the Vince Foster suicide, White Water, the special prosecuter, House Republicans voting to impeach President Clinton.

I'm not trying to air President Bill Clinton's dirty laundry, but those things did detract from the business of running and governing the country. From the standpoint of those kinds of scandals the 1990's would have been a quieter decade.

Had George H. W. Bush (41) been re-elected in 1992, I doubt George W. Bush (43) would have even run in 2000. My guess is Gore getting elected in 2000. I think there would still be the attacks of 9/11/2001, depends on how Gore or whoever is President then handles it. After his defeat in 1992 I can see Clinton being elected to The Senate from Arkansas in 1994 or 1996 whenever depending on when one of the Arkansas Senate seats came up for re-election.

In TTL I can see George W. Bush (43) running and getting elected in 2004 or 2008. Depending on how, I'm assuming Gore, handles 9/11, Bush (43) could make a strong case that The Democrats are not tough enough on terrorism. In TTL I doubt Bush (43) would move us into Iraq as he did in OTL.
 
Had Bush 41 been re-elected in 1992 we would have avoided the many Clinton scandals. Not just Monica Lewinsky, als Jennifer Flowers, other sex scandals. Also things like I think the Vince Foster suicide, White Water, the special prosecuter, House Republicans voting to impeach President Clinton.

I'm not trying to air President Bill Clinton's dirty laundry, but those things did detract from the business of running and governing the country. From the standpoint of those kinds of scandals the 1990's would have been a quieter decade.

Had George H. W. Bush (41) been re-elected in 1992, I doubt George W. Bush (43) would have even run in 2000. My guess is Gore getting elected in 2000. I think there would still be the attacks of 9/11/2001, depends on how Gore or whoever is President then handles it. After his defeat in 1992 I can see Clinton being elected to The Senate from Arkansas in 1994 or 1996 whenever depending on when one of the Arkansas Senate seats came up for re-election.

In TTL I can see George W. Bush (43) running and getting elected in 2004 or 2008. Depending on how, I'm assuming Gore, handles 9/11, Bush (43) could make a strong case that The Democrats are not tough enough on terrorism. In TTL I doubt Bush (43) would move us into Iraq as he did in OTL.

Who do you see running in '96 for the dems? After 16 years of Republican presidents it's extremely likely that the Democratic nominee will win the White House. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I think the top contenders would be Gore and Gephart, and Kerrey's been mentioned too.
 
Who do you see running in '96 for the dems? After 16 years of Republican presidents it's extremely likely that the Democratic nominee will win the White House. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I think the top contenders would be Gore and Gephart, and Kerrey's been mentioned too.

My guess is Gore elected in 1996 and easily re-elected in 2000, I can easily see him serving two terms.
 
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