Bundeswehr in neutral Germany after 1953

[abc123]

I'm interested how would Bundeswehr look like in case that neutral united Germany was formed during say 1953, along the lines of Stalin Note:

A peace treaty with all participants in the war with Germany should be negotiated with a single, united German government. The Allies must agree on the formation of this government.

Germany was to be re-established as a united state within the boundaries established by the provisions of the Potsdam Conference.

All occupation forces were to be withdrawn within one year following the date on which treaty came into effect.

Germany would have democratic rights, such as having freedom of assembly, freedom of press, and freedom to have a multi-party system.

Denazification would be ended. Additionally, former members of the German armed forces and of the Nazi Party, except for convicted war criminals, could join in establishing a peaceful and democratic Germany.

Germany was to become officially neutral and not enter into any kind of coalition or military alliance directed against any of the countries whose military forces had participated in the war against it.

Germany would have access to world markets and there would be no restrictions to these markets.

Germany was permitted to have national armed forces for its own defense and to manufacture munitions for these forces.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stalin_Note

Probably some sort of State Treaty ( similar to Austrian-one ) would be made with the Soviet Union, where Germany would promise permanent neutrality, certain weapons restrictions, number of soldiers etc...

So, let's leave aside the issue of how sincere was Stalin in his offer and plausability of Adenauer's accepting it- and discuss about Bundeswehr ITTL.

 

[abc123]

Nobody?

I would start with the list of restrictions that the Allies would impose on the new neutral Germany?

- no nuclear, chemical or biological weapons
- no aircraft carriers or battleships
- maximal number of soldiers ( say no more than 0,5% of population, population at the time was about 68 mil., so about 340 000 soldiers )
- no submarines
- no artillery or missiles with range of more than 30 km
- no foreign military bases on German soil
- no military alliances with other countries
- maximum tonnage for German Navy ( say 100 000 t )
- no bombers for Air Force

Agreed?

 

[Ferreti]

I am a bit confused by the Wikipedia article, in my old school books it says that Stalin wanted to include the Eastern territories that were given to Poland (1937 borders).

 

[abc123]

I am a bit confused by the Wikipedia article, in my old school books it says that Stalin wanted to include the Eastern territories that were given to Poland (1937 borders).

I don't know, but I don't think that Stalin would return territories east of Oder/Niese, becaus that would have caused the backslash in Poland. And from his perspective it's far better to have Poland that had former German territories, to better tie Poland with the USSR.

 

[Tyr Anazasi]

Stalin did not include these territories. Indeed that was a point, why the offer was not accepted officially. IF he did so, he might (MIGHT!) have had better chances to succeed.

As for the question of forces: The armed forces should be able to defend Germany against two powerful enemies. Thus relative strong forces would be needed here as well. I would guess 500.000 soldiers.

 

[Grand Prince Paul II.]

Stalin did not include these territories. Indeed that was a point, why the offer was not accepted officially. IF he did so, he might (MIGHT!) have had better chances to succeed.

Fueling German delusions would have improved its chances to be accepted?

 

[anotherlurker]

Fueling German delusions would have improved its chances to be accepted?

Delusions? It's Stalin, he's basically god in Eastern Europe at that time, he can move entire nations with a single signature on a piece of paper. "Delusion" is used if something cant possibly happen, if Stalin wills it it will happen! Getting a neutral Germany would have basically given him a strip of neutral countries running from Northern Europe to the Adriatic Sea, imo a very good deal for a deeply paranoid man like Stalin, even if Germany is biased in its neutrality.

Poland would have become a really crowded place if it had happened....

 

[Grand Prince Paul II.]

Seceding Soviet Germany and half of Poland for an only nominal neutral Germany would be a very bad deal.
Not to mention France is not going to accept this Germany.

Stalin would not have survived such an appeasement of anti-Soviet Germans.

 

[abc123]

I do agree that Stalin would not included lands east of Oder-Niese in his offer because of multitude of reasons not least of them is that after 1945, all lands east of that line are allready given to Poland and Soviet Union, so they would not make another expulsion of Poles/Russians from there in order to accomodate the Germans.

 

[abc123]

As for the question of forces: The armed forces should be able to defend Germany against two powerful enemies. Thus relative strong forces would be needed here as well. I would guess 500.000 soldiers.

I don't think that France would accept German Army with 500 000 soldiers. So, the number should be smaller, let's say 0,35% of German population at the time ( so about 250 000 soldiers ) as active army, with maybe twice as many in reserve...

I would also add aditional thing- two or three years waiting period to get armed forces, so that German neighbours can see how will this new Germany behave in the meantime...

 

[oberdada]

I don't think a neutral Germany in 1990s border is possible in the early 50s...

But if its is, I think 100 000 troups, the old Reichswehr size is a logical choice.

Of course, any Mark a unified Germany puts into the militarry is wasted, a neutral Germany can't be armed strongly enough against a real threat without beeing a danger as well...

 

[zoomar]

If such a plan went through it would come with so many restrictions that there would be no "Bundeswehr" unless it was so heavily monitored by the Allied Powers that it was little more than an internal federal police and border-protection force. It would have no military aircraft, no ocean going naval ships of any kind, only defensive artillery and military weapons for border protection. No one trusted Germany, least of all a neutral Germany that was not to one extent or another under the thumb of the USSR and the USA. Large scale German rearmament was only possible within the framework of an alliance structure.

 

[abc123]

OK, here are the results of first ( mostly ) free elections for Bundestag in whole united Germany in 1953:

CDU/CSU- 225 + 25 from former E. Germany- 250

Independent CDU- 24 ( they split from CDU because of acceptance of Oder-Niese border )

SPD- 162 + 77 from former E. Germany- 239

FDP- 53 + 8 from former E. Germany- 61

KPD- 5 + 42 from former E. Germany- 47

GB/BHE- 27 + 4 from former E. Germany- 31

DP- 17 + 3 from former E. Germany- 20

Centre- 3


* the numbers are combination of OTL results in W. Germany and my assumption of results in E. Germany- largely pulled out of my a**

As a consequence, CDU/CSU/FDP/DP, had no enough hands to form the government. So, first Grand Coalition of CDU/CSU, SPD and FDP is formed.

Chancellor Konrad Adenauer CDU

Vice-Chancellor Erich Ollenhauer SPD

Federal Minister of Foreign Affairs Franz Blucher FDP

Federal Minister of the Interior Robert Lehr CDU

Federal Minister of Justice Thomas Dehler FDP

Federal Minister of Finance Willy Brandt SPD

Federal Minister of Economics Ludwig Erhard CDU

Federal Minister of Food, Agriculture, and Forestry Kate Strobel SPD

Federal Minister of Labour Alex Moller SPD

Federal Minister for Transport Siegfried Balke CSU

Federal Minister for Defence Karl Schiller SPD

Federal Minister for Post and Communications Hans Schuberth CSU

Federal Minister of Public Housing Victor Emanuel Preusker FDP

Federal Minister of Displaced Persons Hans Lukaschek CDU

Federal Minister for Affairs of the Bundesrat of Germany Jacob Kaiser CDU

Federal Minister for Economical Cooperation Gustav Heinemann SPD

 

[abc123]

If such a plan went through it would come with so many restrictions that there would be no "Bundeswehr" unless it was so heavily monitored by the Allied Powers that it was little more than an internal federal police and border-protection force. It would have no military aircraft, no ocean going naval ships of any kind, only defensive artillery and military weapons for border protection. No one trusted Germany, least of all a neutral Germany that was not to one extent or another under the thumb of the USSR and the USA. Large scale German rearmament was only possible within the framework of an alliance structure.

About military aircrafts- I think that State Treaty with Austria is indicative here- they did have the right to have military aircrafts. Same thing with Finland- they could have not more than 60 of them.

So something like that could be made for Germany.

 

[abc123]

I don't think a neutral Germany in 1990s border is possible in the early 50s...

But if its is, I think 100 000 troups, the old Reichswehr size is a logical choice.

Of course, any Mark a unified Germany puts into the militarry is wasted, a neutral Germany can't be armed strongly enough against a real threat without beeing a danger as well...

Western ( and eastern ) politicians might want to avoid Reichswehr, because if you limit the German Army on 100 000 ( without any guarantee by other NATO nations to defend Germany you make Germany defenceless ), they might think: Look where 100 000 brought us last time, better to have stronger German Army, but with numerous restrictions...

Professional service or conscripts?

But I agree that some sort of waiting period ( 2-3-5 years ) might be in order- to get approval of Allies- to allow Germany to have armed forces.

 

[bphillip54]

Western ( and eastern ) politicians might want to avoid Reichswehr, because if you limit the German Army on 100 000 ( without any guarantee by other NATO nations to defend Germany you make Germany defenceless ), they might think: Look where 100 000 brought us last time, better to have stronger German Army, but with numerous restrictions...

Professional service or conscripts?

But I agree that some sort of waiting period ( 2-3-5 years ) might be in order- to get approval of Allies- to allow Germany to have armed forces.

You would have to allow Germany to maintain a strong military because they are on the front line of any attempts by the Soviets to take over the west. Either the US keeps troops in France or Netherlands. How would Stalin's death and Khruschev's mini detente affect the deal?

 

[abc123]

You would have to allow Germany to maintain a strong military because they are on the front line of any attempts by the Soviets to take over the west. Either the US keeps troops in France or Netherlands. How would Stalin's death and Khruschev's mini detente affect the deal?

Well the US will DEFINITLY have to keep troops in France ( partly because of French fear of the Soviets and partly because of French fear of Germans ), with British forces perhaps in Benelux...

About Stalin's death, IMO the Khruschev will probably honour the deal if agreed before Stalin's death. About mini-detente- I don't know, if united Germany is allready established by 1957 and later...

 

[Grand Prince Paul II.]

Western ( and eastern ) politicians might want to avoid Reichswehr, because if you limit the German Army on 100 000 ( without any guarantee by other NATO nations to defend Germany you make Germany defenceless ), they might think: Look where 100 000 brought us last time, better to have stronger German Army, but with numerous restrictions...

Professional service or conscripts?

But I agree that some sort of waiting period ( 2-3-5 years ) might be in order- to get approval of Allies- to allow Germany to have armed forces.

The 100.000 men Reichwehr did also have to deal with numerous restrictions.
The problem was the unwillingness to enforce these restrictions, not the size of the German army.

 

[Brundlefly]

OK, here are the results of first ( mostly ) free elections for Bundestag in whole united Germany in 1953:

CDU/CSU- 225 + 25 from former E. Germany- 250

Independent CDU- 24 ( they split from CDU because of acceptance of Oder-Niese border )

SPD- 162 + 77 from former E. Germany- 239

FDP- 53 + 8 from former E. Germany- 61

KPD- 5 + 42 from former E. Germany- 47

GB/BHE- 27 + 4 from former E. Germany- 31

DP- 17 + 3 from former E. Germany- 20

Centre- 3


* the numbers are combination of OTL results in W. Germany and my assumption of results in E. Germany- largely pulled out of my a**

As a consequence, CDU/CSU/FDP/DP, had no enough hands to form the government. So, first Grand Coalition of CDU/CSU, SPD and FDP is formed... <snip>

I'm not sure if a grand coalition would have worked in the political landscape of the early 1950s. This cabinet includes former resistance activists (like Willy Brandt and Jakob Kaiser) as well as SS members (like Karl Schiller). That was difficult even in 1966, but in 1953 it was virtually impossible.

Adenauer was a proponent of Western integration, so he definitely would have been sidelined by an inner-party coup and replaced with a more "neutralist", revisionist candidate. The party mostly in favour of the "Stalin note" was the FDP, which was considerably more nationalist and revisionist in them days.

Considering that many German refugees also came to the GDR, I'd say that the GB/BHE would get more votes in the East.

 

[abc123]

I'm not sure if a grand coalition would have worked in the political landscape of the early 1950s. This cabinet includes former resistance activists (like Willy Brandt and Jakob Kaiser) as well as SS members (like Karl Schiller). That was difficult even in 1966, but in 1953 it was virtually impossible.

Adenauer was a proponent of Western integration, so he definitely would have been sidelined by an inner-party coup and replaced with a more "neutralist", revisionist candidate. The party mostly in favour of the "Stalin note" was the FDP, which was considerably more nationalist and revisionist in them days.

Considering that many German refugees also came to the GDR, I'd say that the GB/BHE would get more votes in the East.

Well, I have to admitt that I pulled the names of ( especially SPD ) ministers without studyng them too much. So, if you have some alternate names, please do tell them?

There were some CDU members that resigned because Adenauer didn't try to start negotiations with Stalin...

I think that the most of the refugees didn't STAY in E. Germany for long- communism and Soviet rule... That's the reason why I gave them allmost no votes there...