OTL:
SPD 42,6%
Union 44,5%
F.D.P. 10,6%
Greens 1,5%
NPD 0,2%
KPD 0,2%
rest definetly irrelevant
So the Union would need to get at least 5% from SPD and/or the liberals to win, not very likely.
BUt if Strauss has even a smal minority its getting interesting.
The social democtrats will definetly move left, Helmut Schmidt wouldn't likely play an important part anymore.
Tough time for the Greens, BUT htey might move to the right instead, becoming more what the ÖDP is today and
if Strauss gets unpopular enough they might make it in 1984.
the FDP would have a tougher standing in the opposition than today, they will move to the political right, either economicaly ultra-liberal criticism of the Strauss Government, or become a nationalistic-popular party like the FPÖ in OTL (this would likely butterfly away the success of the republicans and the DVU in the late 80s, early 90s).
But I can't see Strauss winning again in 1984, the CSU is also likely to loose a lot of votes in the October 1982 Bavarian election.
By the way, who would succeed Strauss in Bavaria?