Bulgaria joins ww1 earlier.

What if Bulgaria had joined the Central powers prior to the outbreak of WW1. Assuming butterflies don't affect the assaination and the other OTL lead up to the war how would a earlier joint opinvasion of Serbia with a much better prepared Bulgaria affect the war. Could Austria Hungary avoid most of their defeats against Russia. Additionally would Romania, Greece and Italy still join the war with a much stronger Austria Hungary and Bulgarian armies prepared.
 
What if Bulgaria had joined the Central powers prior to the outbreak of WW1. Assuming butterflies don't affect the assaination and the other OTL lead up to the war how would a earlier joint opinvasion of Serbia with a much better prepared Bulgaria affect the war. Could Austria Hungary avoid most of their defeats against Russia. Additionally would Romania, Greece and Italy still join the war with a much stronger Austria Hungary and Bulgarian armies prepared.

Bulgaria were much closer to Russia than either Germany or Austria pre war. Their switch was based on having the Ottomans as any ally at their back(no guarantee of this pre war) and promises made to vulture Romania. Can't see how they are going to outright ally prior to war with Germany and Austria
 

LordKalvert

Banned
The Kaiser hated the idea of an alliance with Bulgaria and was pushing an Austro-Serbian reconciliation which would bring Romania around. Ferdinand was the most despised and mistrusted ruler in Europe- nobody believed he would honor his commitments because, even for a Balkan ruler, he had switched sides

That said, if Bulgaria does attack Serbia (everything remains the same), the Serbs are likely to be beaten early but its not likely to change Austria's fate too much. The Austrians are hammered by the Russians because the Austrians are outclassed in every way. They will free up some troops but probably not enough to do much good

Unless, the defeat of Serbia is enough to make the Italians cautious. If the Italian intervention can be delayed by about one or two months, the Gorlice-Tarnow offensive would have exposed Russian weakness and its doubtful the Italians ever join
 
The Kaiser hated the idea of an alliance with Bulgaria and was pushing an Austro-Serbian reconciliation which would bring Romania around. Ferdinand was the most despised and mistrusted ruler in Europe- nobody believed he would honor his commitments because, even for a Balkan ruler, he had switched sides

That said, if Bulgaria does attack Serbia (everything remains the same), the Serbs are likely to be beaten early but its not likely to change Austria's fate too much. The Austrians are hammered by the Russians because the Austrians are outclassed in every way. They will free up some troops but probably not enough to do much good

Unless, the defeat of Serbia is enough to make the Italians cautious. If the Italian intervention can be delayed by about one or two months, the Gorlice-Tarnow offensive would have exposed Russian weakness and its doubtful the Italians ever join

Would this attitude of bulgaria being untrustworthy carry over to his son Boris if Ferdinand died some time earlier. That would help as Ferdinand disliked both the German Kaiser and Austrian emperor. And Boris seems like a overly better guy then his father.
 

Deleted member 1487

What if Bulgaria had joined the Central powers prior to the outbreak of WW1. Assuming butterflies don't affect the assaination and the other OTL lead up to the war how would a earlier joint opinvasion of Serbia with a much better prepared Bulgaria affect the war. Could Austria Hungary avoid most of their defeats against Russia. Additionally would Romania, Greece and Italy still join the war with a much stronger Austria Hungary and Bulgarian armies prepared.
You're welcome for the POD. :p

My answer here:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=11458894&postcount=7
 

Deleted member 1487

Bulgaria were much closer to Russia than either Germany or Austria pre war. Their switch was based on having the Ottomans as any ally at their back(no guarantee of this pre war) and promises made to vulture Romania. Can't see how they are going to outright ally prior to war with Germany and Austria
Avoid this incident:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferdinand_I_of_Bulgaria#Tsar_of_Bulgaria
Ferdinand was known for being quite a character. On a visit to German Emperor Wilhelm II, his second cousin once removed, in 1909, Ferdinand was leaning out of a window of the New Palace in Potsdam when the Emperor came up behind him and slapped him on the bottom. Ferdinand was affronted by the gesture and the Emperor apologised. Ferdinand however exacted his revenge by awarding a valuable arms contract he had intended to give to the Krupp's factory in Essen to French arms manufacturer Schneider-Creusot.[6] Another incident occurred on his journey to the funeral of his second cousin, British King Edward VII in 1910. A tussle broke out over where his private railway carriage would be positioned in relation to the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne, Archduke Franz Ferdinand. The Archduke won out, having his carriage positioned directly behind the engine. Ferdinand's was placed directly behind. Realising the dining car of the train was behind his own carriage, Ferdinand obtained his revenge on the Archduke by refusing him entry through his own carriage to the dining car.[7]
Closer relations between the militaries as a result of no ass-slapping German Kaiser and less unpleasantness between FF and the Czar would all help solidify relations.

The Kaiser hated the idea of an alliance with Bulgaria and was pushing an Austro-Serbian reconciliation which would bring Romania around. Ferdinand was the most despised and mistrusted ruler in Europe- nobody believed he would honor his commitments because, even for a Balkan ruler, he had switched sides

That said, if Bulgaria does attack Serbia (everything remains the same), the Serbs are likely to be beaten early but its not likely to change Austria's fate too much. The Austrians are hammered by the Russians because the Austrians are outclassed in every way. They will free up some troops but probably not enough to do much good

Unless, the defeat of Serbia is enough to make the Italians cautious. If the Italian intervention can be delayed by about one or two months, the Gorlice-Tarnow offensive would have exposed Russian weakness and its doubtful the Italians ever join
The early defeat of Serbia in 1914, avoiding the huge humiliation of the A-H military probably keeps Italy out of the war. Italy thought the repeated defeats of A-H to little Serbia meant they were easy to beat. The Balkan theater shutting down frees up at least 1 A-H army, keeps Greece out of the war, opens supply lines to the Ottomans, probably neutralizes Romania for a while, probably keeps Italy out, and frees up a lot of resources in 1914-15, as without the 3rd invasion defeat in 1914 there is a lot more equipment on hand:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbian_Campaign_of_World_War_I#Battle_of_Kolubara
Plus in 1915 there is no need for a major invasion that sucked off critical forces at a critical moment after the victory of Gorlice-Tarnow. Plus no Italian Front means a LOT more troops for the East, so some defeats in 1914-15 are meaningless after the CPs being able to really exploit Gorlice-Tarnow without letting up any pressure to finish off Serbia and defend against Italy. Remember too that A-H collapsed finally on the Italian front in 1918. In fact in 1915 with having the full weight of A-H forces for the East Romania might well join in if Galicia is able to be cleared over the summer and Ukraine invaded; that could lead to a collapse of Russian lines if they have a continuous front advance to face from the Baltic sea to Black sea.
 
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