Bulgaria declares war on Serbia earlier

Just a random thought but Bulgaria didnt declare war on Serbia in ww1 until a year or so after the war started. During that time Serbia and Austria smacked each other around for no real territorial changes. So what if Bulgaria declares war earlier in 1914?
 
Just a random thought but Bulgaria didnt declare war on Serbia in ww1 until a year or so after the war started. During that time Serbia and Austria smacked each other around for no real territorial changes. So what if Bulgaria declares war earlier in 1914?

Serbia is in trouble: it was the Bulgarian strike to their rear that ended the stalemate they'd quite remarkably forced on Austria. Austria gets more forces to send to Russia (Italy not being in it yet). Butterflies are likely to make Greece, Romania, and even Italy think twice about going Entente. All good news for the CP.

Of course, this qould require a major change in Bulgarian policy; they'd realised that the Second Balkan War had been the result of trying to fulfil a very ambitious irredentist programme with limited resources, so their cardinal principal was one thing at a time; in practice this meant ensuring that the Ottomans were on their side before jumping on Serbia.
 

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It would require too that Austria-Hungary had some battlefield successes to impress the Bulgarians with. The Tzar, though a German by birth, was not friendly with the German or Austrian Kaisers and considered them fools (for a number of reasons) partly because of the lack of military successes against Serbia. If Potiorek is able to make use of the 2nd army (even part of it) to force the Danube down the Morava valley (which it was supposed to do before Conrad took it back for Galicia), then the Serbs are in trouble. It was flat and perfect terrain for an offensive, especially as the Danube flotilla could support the army during its march down the economic spine of the nation and the army could use the major rail line along it that ran to Nish.

So if the Austrians are able to win the first battles and hold Belgrade, the Bulgarians would be much more open to considering joining the war. It would cause Serbia's collapse for sure, though probably with more fighting than 1915, due to Serbia being less destroyed in previous fighting. This means more AH soldiers survive/aren't captured and are available for Galicia sooner. It also reduces Entente morale while building the CP's, as it was the fighting on the Serbian front was the first Entente victory of the war.

For the Austro-Hungarian's it would be very important, as they would have accomplished their primary goal without German assistance and correspondingly increasing the people's trust in the government (which had taken a very nasty hit during the first year of the war). This means that the AH citizens are more loyal, instead of disillusioned about their chances of winning. Perhaps this means less desertions.

What it will mean is more troops for Galicia and possibly no Italian front either. The loss in the Balkans severely impacted AH prestige abroad allowing the Italians to think that they could beat the Austrians without much effort. With that not an issue and the supply lines open to the Ottomans earlier (butterflying away Galipoli), the Italians are much less likely to enter into the conflict. All this means much more resources for the Eastern front.

In 1914 this means at least 200,000 men and 500 (modern) artillery pieces more for the Eastern Front and in 1915 probably another 500,000-800,000 men and over 1,000 artillery pieces and ammunition that would otherwise be diverted.

It also means that the Germans don't have to send resources there in 1915, also freeing up more troops for other theaters. Overall it is a huge net gain for the CP's, which could tip the odds in other theaters in the favor. It probably ensures the AH empire survives the war, as without Italy it can leave the conflict earlier thanks to having no active fronts and being able to return production to food and commerce. It also means Russia may even be forced out of the war earlier, further tipping the odds in the Central Power's favor.
 
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