Bulgaria begrudgingly accepts it spoils

[33k7]

Kingdom of Bulgaria begrudgingly accepts it spoils from the first Balkan war still making a stink about it not getting their promised territories but not going any further than some harsh words at the negotiation table and does not spark a second Balkan war what effects would it cause

Could it have delayed the first world war by a few months or years with the Balkan cauldron not boiling over


The poll is a general view of how or if it would stabilize Europe major effect is the best outcome for stabilizing Europe and decreasing tensions and on the opposite side makes the situation worse increases the tensions earlier World War I

 

[Andreas]

With Bulgaria still militarily strong and with considerable strategic depth, I guess that the Serbians would watch more on her directions, thus be more careful in Bosnia...

 

[stevep]

33k7

The other factor is that until the conflict Bulgaria was Russia's main ally in the Balkans. It was anger at Russia's perceived lack of support that meant relations between the two worsened and Russia found Serbia was its only real ally in the region.

If this doesn't happen Russia doesn't feel anything like as compelled to support the Serbs, especially since the conservative elite will be deeply alienated by the assassination of a royal and the dangerous precedence set. Hence Serbia might buckle under the Austrian threat or, if Austria does attack it might not prompt a general war.

In that case Austria gets a nasty shock as it would probably see a serious defeat in the first set of offensives as OTL. Very likely to wear Serbia down eventually, or possibly, if Serbia has no support, some compromise peace is agreed.

Alternatively, Bulgaria, since it still wants the Macedonian lands promised [it believed] in the initial alliance, might join the war, possibly even with Russian support. In which case Serbia probably goes down quickly and Bulgaria gets land but also is rather exposed. [Since it has land Serbia, Romania and Turkey want and also outstanding differences with Greece]. There is the chance, depending on Russia reaction to Bulgaria joining such a conflict, it might fall out with them and end up at least loosely allies with the central powers.

This of course assumes that the F-F assassination isn't butterflied, which is all too likely. However if it isn't and TTL the 2nd Balkan War is Austria [possibly with Bulgaria] defeating Serbia then you might not get a great war. I say this because I think a window for it, especially with the current alliances, is reality short. Between the declining position in the naval race, growing concern about the S plan and also the steadily growing strength of Russia Germany has only a short period where it can even hope to win a general war. With Austria tied down for several months to a year and showing serious shortcomings it won't be available to assist and won't look that strong an ally while the Austrian leadership may also want some time to re-organise their military at least.

Steve

 

[33k7]

Stevep

So without the assassination of the Archduke and his wife things would have settle down in the Balkans for a few years at the least

33k7

 

[stevep]

Stevep

So without the assassination of the Archduke and his wife things would have settle down in the Balkans for a few years at the least

33k7

33k7

Not sure what you mean? If we assume that Bulgaria doesn't trigger the 2nd Balkan War and stays on good terms with Russia, then I suggested that if the assassination occurs you might just get a limited conflict, largely because Serbia would be more isolated. It could still blow up into something bigger but think its unlikely.

If the assassination doesn't occur then it probably depends on how much you, or probably more importantly the Germany establishment, believe in the fears that Russia was going to be too strong to defeat in a couple of years. If so then Germany will be eager for war before that date. If not you probably have a good chance of avoiding a global conflict. Once F-F takes over Austria he will be busy reordering the empire, which could well mean conflict with elements of the Hungarian aristocracy. Also I think he was more cautious about the alliance with the Germans, but could be wrong here.

The other uncertainty is you might have more instability in the Balkans as the Bulgarians are still bitter about the results of the 1st war but haven't been gang-banged like they were OTL. Especially if they still feel their supported by Russia they might feel embolden to try something. Could even have WWI triggered by Russia supporting Bulgaria in some conflict.

Steve

 

[Grey Wolf]

So...Bulgaria retains Kavala and Adrianople, as well as the S Dobruja?

If Bukgaria doesn't attack its former allies, does this not mean that some sort of formal Bulgaria-Greece-Serbia alliance remains?

How much was Albania's fate determined, or sealed, by the 2nd Balkan War, as opposed to the 1st?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[stevep]

So...Bulgaria retains Kavala and Adrianople, as well as the S Dobruja?

If Bukgaria doesn't attack its former allies, does this not mean that some sort of formal Bulgaria-Greece-Serbia alliance remains?

How much was Albania's fate determined, or sealed, by the 2nd Balkan War, as opposed to the 1st?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf In terms of the continuation of the alliance it would probably depend on the circumstances. Rather suspect it would be in name only but with a lot [more] distrust and hatred bubbling under the surface.

Not sure enough about the history of Albania to be certain. Think was it Austria or Italy supported this to prevent Serbia getting a coastline? However too long since I read the details.

Steve