Buchanan '96?

OK, on the third month after this thread quietly slipped away, and now that The City is finished (go read it! Girl shoots guy in face!), I'm going to just compile the best ideas from this thread, and work them into something vaguely timeline-ish. I'll do a dot point summary of everything devised so far, as well as some ideas of my own. This is just the first part, covering to the midterms in 1998.
Due credit to TheMann, David bar Elias, Merry Prankster, and Corbell Mark IV.

The Campaign

1993

·Point of Departure: John Breaux decides to vote against the 1993 Budget in the Senate. As one of Congress' most influential moderate Democrats, this leads to a substantial segment of the Blue Dog Coalition declaring against the budget. Although Clinton avoids the humiliation of a direct defeat of the budget, his capitulation is seen as the start of a series of crises.

1994

·Republicans take back Congress in 1994. Whereas in OTL only Dick Shelby switched parties afterwards, three senators and a dozen Congressmen from the south switch to the new majority in TTL. This further weakens Clinton.

1995

·Paula Jones becomes a major scandal in 1995, with the press taking advantage of Clinton's political weakness to 'pile on'.
·Alan Keyes decides not to run for president, instead endorsing Pat Buchanan early, as Buchanan, taking advantage of NAFTA (Clinton's sole legislative triumph), ascends in the polls.
·Bob Kerrey announces an exploratory committee to run for president; he is persuaded to withdraw a few days later, but the abortive run contributes to Clinton's image as a lame duck.

1996

·The OTL Keyes vote in Iowa goes to Buchanan, allowing him to win the Iowa caucuses.
·A congressional investigation into Paula Jones gains momentum. More alleged affairs emerge from the woodwork.
·Buchanan wins New Hampshire, as in OTL.
·Forbes wins Delaware; Dole wins North and South Dakota; Buchanan wins Arizona.
·Buchanan secures Pete Wilson’s endorsement, with the implicit promise of the vice presidency. This allows him to be seen as a ‘legitimate’ contender, not merely a protest candidate.
·Dole wins the more moderate New England primaries; Buchanan wins South Carolina. Buchanan sweeps the South on March 12, giving him a significant lead in the delegate count.
·Steve Forbes endorses Buchanan, granting him further delegates. Buchanan polls well in the Rust Belt on March 19, but Dole recovers some momentum. Dole stakes all his chips on California, on March 26.
·Buchanan pips Dole, by a narrow margin of 3000 votes, in California. Dole withdraws from the race, making Buchanan the de facto nominee.
·Clinton, still battling congressional opposition and investigations, manages to pass the substantially altered 1996 Budget through negotiation with a hostile Congress. This merely contributes to his image as a lame duck, as it is perceived as ‘Gingrich’s Budget’.
·Moderates in the GOP continue to resist Buchanan; Dole publicly moots re-entry into the race leading up to the April Pennsylvania primary, as northeastern Republicans refuse to endorse Buchanan.
·After an exhausting and depressing first term, Clinton begins his ‘fight back’ in April 1996. The collapse of the congressional investigation into Paula Jones’ allegations is a major factor in this. Trying to seize the agenda, he makes welfare reform, in collaboration with moderate Republicans (disaffected from Buchanan), a major part of his agenda. This assuages moderates but infuriates liberals. Jesse Jackson refuses to endorse Clinton for re-election (in OTL, he publicly speculated about a third party run)
·Ralph Nader declares his intention to run for the presidency, and to run an active campaign (unlike in OTL, where he was reluctantly drafted for a half-hearted run in 1996)
·Clinton’s shift to the right, to counter Buchanan’s attacks, includes measures to reduce affirmative action for federal jobs. This increases his lead in polling over Buchanan (a 10% lead in May 1996) but allows support to leak to Ralph Nader, polling at 6%.
·Buchanan, although not actively campaigning, wins the Reform Party’s nomination, as a ‘fusion’ candidate. Ross Perot endorses him.
·Clinton, continuing his campaign as a ‘Third Way’ candidate, launches a reshuffle of his cabinet (as he did after winning in 1996 in OTL). Reich, Reno, and Shalala are out. Again, this increases Nader’s support, while not cutting into Buchanan’s base.
·Buchanan, funded by donations from the grassroots base of the party (its corporate donors have not yet come around), begins savage advertising against Clinton in swing states, on the theme ‘Who Do You Trust?’ The ‘trust’ issue proves to be a major issue in the coming months.
·The largely-defunct committee investigating Paula Jones discovers the case of Juanita Broaddrick (not publicised until 1998 in OTL)
·Broaddrick is brought before the committee. Her allegations of sexual assault appear credible. Democratic attempts to discredit her are universally condemned. The actual truth, or lack thereof, of the allegations is considered less important than the blaze of publicity.
·Buchanan’s next swing state ad features footage of him with his loving family, and talk of ‘family values’. The advertisement is considered the most effective of the campaign.
·The Republican National Convention is focused on the theme of ‘party unity’. Bob Dole releases his substantial count of delegates to Buchanan; they embrace on the San Diego stage. Pete Wilson is selected as the vice presidential candidate.
·The Democratic National Convention, by contrast, is bitter and focused on the continuing allegations surrounding Bill Clinton. Despite Clinton facing no opposition in the primaries, former Pennsylvania Governor Bob Casey launches a challenge from the floor, gaining more than 300 delegate votes.
·Polling at the end of August: Buchanan 43, Clinton 37, Nader 10, undecided 10.
·Negative advertising begins after the Democratic Convention. Clinton’s negative researchers unearth extensive negative comments by Buchanan in the past; his approval rating plunges. However, Buchanan’s campaign is saved from disaster by the ‘opening of the spigots’, with corporate donors recognising Buchanan as a possible victor against Clinton.
·First Debate: Buchanan makes no gaffes, and makes an effective populist pitch against Clinton. By appearing reasonably sane, he is held to have ‘won’ the debate, despite Clinton’s pitch for the moderate vote.
· Congressman Bob Barr, in light of Broaddrick’s allegations, begins impeachment proceedings against Clinton. The issue is once more unearthed, and prevents Clinton’s attacks on Buchanan from gaining any traction. Clinton’s campaign appears doomed.
·In a Newsweek poll in late September, Nader gains 15% of the vote, against Buchanan’s 41% and Clinton’s 35%. He is hence invited to the next presidential debate.
·Second Debate: A clear win for Clinton. Buchanan is attacked fiercely over his economic proposals, with ‘domestic issues’ (education, health and housing) capitalised on by Clinton. With Buchanan to the right, and Nader to the left, Clinton appears moderate and reasonable. Buchanan’s attempts to capitalise upon Clinton’s personal scandals are taken to be in the worst of taste. Nader is largely marginalised.
·The Election: Clinton wins the popular vote, with 46%, to Buchanan’s 45%. However, Nader, with 7%, proves decisive in splitting the liberal vote; Buchanan narrowly wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida, and hence triumphs in the Electoral College.
·Buchanan is inaugurated as the 43rd President on January 20, 1997.

The Administration

1997

·Buchanan assembles his cabinet. Jeane Kirkpatrick becomes Secretary of State, returning from retirement as a ‘distinguished elder’ in the administration. Steve Forbes is placed as head of a task force on tax cuts, effectively sidelining the Treasury Secretary.
·The most publicised appointment is that of Democratic Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur as Labor Secretary, who had endorsed Buchanan in the general election and been expelled from the caucus as a result. She becomes the public face of Buchanan’s first policy initiative: ending NAFTA.
·The Industry Restoration Act, abolishing NAFTA and installing new tariffs on imports, is steered through Congress in the first months of the administration, against resistance from free-trade Republicans and Democrats. Buchanan, in a legislative coup, secures the support of House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt, allowing for its narrow passage through the House. Vice President Wilson is widely viewed as responsible for its success in the Senate, despite his personal opposition to the bill. Signed into law on May 16, 1997, it is the defining triumph of the administration. Briefly, Buchanan’s approval rating rests above 60%.
·Buchanan’s administration is never ‘slow’; rather, he attempts to introduce new measures constantly, sometimes disregarding the political needs of the moment. In the early months, when all goes well, this leads to a popular and vigorous administration; in later years, it merely alarms the public and leads to drastically declining relations with the legislature.
·The first Buchanan budget is a moderate, pragmatic compromise, evidence of the continued influence of moderates (such as Wilson and Health Secretary Tommy Thompson) over the administration. Tariffs are restored, and extensive tax cuts, devised by Forbes, are implemented (although not a flat tax). Although federal spending is cut, many of Buchanan’s campaign promises – to abolish the Department of Education, to leave health care to the states, and to cut foreign aid – are not implemented.
·By late 1997, however, the tone of the administration begins to change. The turning point, in retrospect, is seen as being the replacement of E. D. Hirsch as Education Secretary. Hirsch, a distinguished academic but with no experience in public service, had quarrelled with Buchanan’s plans to cut funding to the Department and allow for school prayer. His replacement is much more ideologically conservative.

·United Nations

·Buchanan’s brief honeymoon is diminished, however, by his politically foolish attempt to withdraw from the UN, which would persist throughout his administration. The 1997 Helms Act, which blocks the payment of overdue revenue to the UN, leads to threats of suspension of the US seat in the General Assembly.
·The UN, after negotiations with Kirkpatrick, withdraws the United States’ right to sit in the General Assembly. In response, Buchanan devotes large amounts of political capital to steering the Free Nation Bill – withdrawal from the UN – through Congress. Republican Senators Arlen Specter and John Chafee lead the fight against the bill in the Senate.
·After an all-night debate, including extensive filibusters by, ironically, both sides (as the whips try to drum up votes), the Free Nation Bill is defeated, 57 to 43, on October 9, 1997.
·Buchanan’s approval rating dips below his disapproval rating for the first time.
·Buchanan, at first, is determined to re-introduce the Bill. Only by threatening to resign does Kirkpatrick, who recognises the political folly of the move, convince him to relent.
·Buchanan, seeking to rebuild his political standing, decides to focus on his domestic reform agenda in 1998.
·The first year of the Buchanan Administration is consumed by two epic, months-long political battles, over NAFTA and the UN. Buchanan manages to restore protective tariffs and to abolish NAFTA, but the UN battle costs him political standing. In the year to come, the government focuses on a wider range of issues.

1998

·Education Issues

·Buchanan is unable to muster sufficient political support to abolish the Department of Education. Instead, his efforts turn towards curriculum reform: requiring teachers, in order to gain federal funding, to teach ‘values education’, and to give a ‘balanced view’ of historical events.
·This proves controversial: Buchanan’s plans are lampooned as revisionist, and resistance from teachers and states forces the plan to be curtailed. Buchanan does, however, succeed in granting greater powers to local school districts, and in cutting federal expenditure on education.

·Health Issues

·Buchanan launches a spirited attack on HMOs and medical corporations, vowing to reduce the costs of prescription drugs. Part of his economic agenda includes subsidies for these medicines; however, constraints on the budget limit the effectiveness of this. In early February, when he focuses on this debate, his popularity rises above 50%, restoring his standing after the UN debacle.
·However, Buchanan dissipates this popularity after cancelling federal support for anti-AIDS programs. Tommy Thompson threatens to resign over this; in order to prevent more cabinet instability, Buchanan is forced to cancel plans to slash department funding.
·The Environment
·Buchanan is iconoclastic on the environment. He implements consumer legislation to protect animals from factory farming and to protect the rights of factory workers. Although this is largely a populist gesture against corporations, he briefly surfaces as an unlikely environmentalist hero.
·He abolishes the Endangered Species Act, and plans to lease public land to private owners as a source of revenue.

·Free Trade and Industry

·It becomes something of a standard of Buchanan’s administration: whenever he suffers a political setback in another area, he focuses once more upon free trade and corporate policy as a source of public support.
·Secretary Kaptur, as the most experienced official in Buchanan’s administration, emerges as his closest advisor – a source of tension with Vice President Wilson.
·The Industrial Protection Act re-creates a range of tariffs and protective subsidies on American industries. Passed in May with support from Democrats and Republicans, it places extensive sanctions on outsourcing and overseas manufacturing.
·Mexico, in particular, is treated harshly, with tariffs on Mexican products so extensive as to significantly reduce trade between the neighbouring nations.
·Federal affirmative action laws are abolished, with the reluctant acquiescence of Republican moderates. This leads to a compromise: Buchanan will be allowed carte blanche on affirmative action, if he refuses to enact his planned immigration reforms until 1999. Buchanan accepts the compromise, hoping that, by then, he will have the majority necessary in Congress to work around moderates.
·New worker protection laws are introduced. Buchanan, although opposed to unions, acquiesces in Kaptur’s reforms to the Wagner Act, allowing for stringent enforcement of labour rights.
·The Workers Rights Act 1998 is enacted as a legislative triumph towards the end of the year: it enacts specific protections against unfair dismissal and unsafe working conditions, accompanied by increases in wages and conditions. This Act represents the triumph of Kaptur’s faction in the administration over Wilson’s.
·His success in this field diminishes, however, with the economic slowdown; Buchanan’s policies are increasingly blamed for the slowing world economy.

·Foreign Policy

·Foreign aid is cut almost to the point of abolition.
·American troops serving in Europe, Japan, and Africa are withdrawn. Americans cease to participate in UN peacekeeping missions.
·America is perceived, abroad, as xenophobic and increasingly isolated. The axing of free trade deals leads to a slowing of trade, and a declining world economy. This is not evident, however, until next year.

·Economic Policy

·Buchanan’s 1998 Budget is his first budget developed outside the influence of moderates. It implements the largest tax cuts in history, approaching a flat tax in some instances. To pay for this, federal spending is decimated. The Department of Education is, if not abolished, emasculated; health spending and HUD are massively reduced; and defence assignments abroad, including much of the American commitment to NATO, are ended.
·The Budget is perceived as the signifier of the administration’s new, radical bent. Democrats, while studiously avoiding (one might say imitating) Buchanan’s stance on trade, campaign against its spending cuts and perceived neglect of public schools and hospitals.

·Immigration

·Buchanan, although forced to a conciliatory posture by his compromise on affirmative action, abolishes access to public schools for illegal immigrants. Although the gesture is almost unenforceable, its symbolism is apparent. This accompanies a general restriction of social welfare services, although ironically these have been largely cut in the Budget.
·The Border Patrol receives an infusion of funding. Plans are made for the construction of a wall along the border.
·Buchanan briefly moots the abolition of dual citizenship, but is convinced by advisors that such a measure could never survive Congress.

·The Mid-Terms

·Democrats re-take the Senate, with Arlen Specter (effectively deprived of funding by a vengeful president) amongst vulnerable northeastern Senators. Former Democrats-turned-Republicans Richard Shelby and John Breaux are both defeated. The House remains Republican.
·Taking stock of the loss, Buchanan blames his compromise and loss of political momentum, attributed to moderate Republicans in the Senate. In order to restore his fortunes, he needs to appeal to popular sentiments against immigration and the erosion of American national identity.
 
And here's the second part of the mini-timeline: the decline and fall of Pat Buchanan.

1999
· In a major shakeup of the administration, Secretary of State Kirkpatrick, HHS Secretary Thompson and Attorney-General Ted Olsen depart.

· Immigration

· In April, legal immigration is restricted to 300 000 per year, a drastic cut that gains world headlines. With popular sentiment on Buchanan’s side, and no law required to pass the Democratic Senate, it seems that Buchanan has regained popular support. Moves, immediately following the midterm loss, to prevent him from re-nomination by the Republicans are effectively sidelined by the gesture.
· Following his successful gambit to reduce immigration, Buchanan announces a new bill, the Lawful Employment Bill. This places heavy financial penalties on employers who are proven to have employed or harboured illegal immigrants. Again, the gesture gains popular support; the Senate leadership requests only minor amendments.
· Senators Paul Wellstone and Bob Kerrey, House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt, former Vice President Al Gore, and Governor Jeanne Shaheen declare their intentions to run for the presidency in 2000.
· Recovering his popularity through confrontational gestures, Buchanan announces his intention to support the American Citizenship Bill, to be introduced by House Majority Leader Dick Armey. This will prevent citizens from holding dual citizenship, and deny automatic citizenship through jus soli.
· The American Citizenship Bill creates immediate controversy. Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle opposes the bill; Gephardt, wary of his own presidential ambitions, merely declares the need for extensive amendments. Buchanan’s popularity declines; he loses support amongst Hispanics and Asians, but gains support from lower-income white males.
· The Senate Democratic majority adopt a confrontational strategy, blocking other parts of Buchanan’s legislative agenda – such as proposed curriculum reforms, to mandate the teaching of American history, to be imposed through sanctions on non-compliant schools – until the American Citizenship Bill is defeated. This causes the issue to dominate the legislative agenda.
· In the House, a last-minute compromise to GOP moderates causes dual citizenship to be retained. The Bill passes the House, 303-127, 5 not voting, with extensive Democratic defections. The issue of jus soli becomes the main component of the bill.
· Arizona Senator John McCain and Minnesota Senator Paul Wellstone lead the anti-Bill Senators, decrying the Bill in a two-hour speech on the Senate floor. After an all-night debate, the vote is lost, 55-45.
· Buchanan’s brief political comeback ends with the defeat of the bill.
· Attempting to revive the immigration reform debate, he attempts to restrict family reunion programs to wives and non-adult children. This easily passes the House, but is again stymied by the Senate.
· In June, once Buchanan’s political defeat is evident, Senator John McCain announces his intention to challenge Buchanan for the presidency.
· With Buchanan distracted by the challenge, his autocratic style lifts. The rest of the political year is dominated by a growing economic crisis.

· Foreign Affairs

· The ethnic conflict in Kosovo is defused by a German-British taskforce, under NATO’s auspices. The United States refuses to intervene. This is condemned by Paul Wellstone, who gains in the polls on a policy of ‘humanitarian internationalism.’
· Brent Scowcroft, the new Secretary of State, was appointed as a conciliatory gesture to the Republican ‘old guard’, who continue to hold Buchanan in (mutual) contempt. He alleviates some of Buchanan’s isolationism, but America continues its hostility towards the UN, international institutions, and foreign commitments.
· Buchanan’s briefly-mooted plans to reduce aid to Israel were defeated by the midterms and congressional hostility.

· Economic Policy

· Interest rates rise from late 1998, but cause particular stress in 1999. Buchanan’s effective abolition of HUD – in all but name – contributes to growing mortgage stress through a lack of regulation.
· The creation of tariffs causes higher prices, as defunct industries cannot meet demand due to lost technologies and reskilling. Although this is particularly evident in car prices – with a Chevrolet increasing in price by up to 25% -- it also affects agriculture and fuel prices.
· The US dollar suffers as a result of declining trade. It reaches parity with the Australian dollar in early 1999.
· The major economic crisis of the year, however, follows the end of the Kosovo War in July (later than OTL). The subsequent improvement in European stocks – largely as a result of subsequent continental stability – increases the relative decline of the $US abroad.
· Consumer confidence declines, as the Buchanan administration enters further political troubles and shows no signs of relenting on its ideological course.
· The dam finally bursts on August 15, 1999, when a rush to re-invest stocks in European currencies over previous weeks culminates in a 532.1 drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Index.
· This sudden collapse of confidence effectively leaves the Buchanan administration floundering. The Treasury Secretary is sacked; Steve Forbes, previously a dominant adviser to the administration, is brought on as a temporary replacement, as a political ploy to sideline McCain’s ascendant challenge (based largely on fiscal conservative votes). This perception of ‘playing politics with people’ further damages Buchanan.
· Congress is recalled to vote on the Emergency Relief Act, which bails out collapsing banks (due to the loss of consumer confidence) and removes multiple protective tariffs. Funding is restored to HUD.
· Secretary Kaptur, in protest over the restoration of a protectionist policy, resigns from the Department of Labor (where she had been serving, effectively, as Buchanan’s domestic policy czar). Her departure increases the influence of Vice President Wilson, and ‘orthodox’ Republicans, over the administration.
· Paul Wellstone, riding a populist message of increased welfare and a second New Deal, ascends in the Democratic polls.
· At the end of 1999, the Buchanan administration is almost dead in the water. Its unorthodox fiscal policies have been reigned in, and protectionism dies once more. The loss of consumer confidence and rising prices strike deeply at lower-income Americans, Buchanan’s base.
· Vice President Wilson attempts, in what is later referred to as the ‘November Plot’, to persuade Buchanan not to run for re-election. Buchanan refuses; he intends to fight his way out of the political crisis, even if it means veering to the centre.

2000

· The political year is dominated by the early primaries. Paul Wellstone wins Iowa; Jeanne Shaheen wins as a favourite daughter in New Hampshire. Al Gore, the ‘establishment’ candidate (having fended off challenges from Kerrey and Gephardt), prepares to face both candidates on Super Tuesday.
· Buchanan triumphs easily in Iowa, but is devastated, 60-40, in New Hampshire by McCain. Given that Buchanan had campaigned heavily in New Hampshire in two prior cycles, this proves devastating to the administration’s political capital. He makes a comeback in South Carolina and Michigan.
· On Super Tuesday, Gore and Wellstone split the vote, with Shaheen taking crucial votes in New England. McCain’s chronic fundraising disadvantage prevents him from fighting on a wide front; Buchanan, by winning narrowly in California and Ohio, racks up an unassailable lead.
· Gore sweeps the South on March 14. However, Shaheen’s endorsement of Wellstone hours prior to the Illinois primary on March 21 proves decisive, with Wellstone’s victory perceived as a ‘comeback’. He sweeps the April 4 primaries to emerge as the presumptive nominee.
· McCain, despite Buchanan’s growing lead, refuses to capitulate. A May 15 victory in Oregon proves highly embarrassing for the President.
· Buchanan’s legislative agenda for the first six months of the year is effectively co-opted by the McCain challenge; he is forced to act opportunistically, to appease the base, while not losing centrist voters. This leads to a sense of panicking and stagnating administration.
· McCain finally drops out on June 7, the day after the last primaries. He refuses to endorse any candidate.
· Pete Wilson announces that he will not accept re-nomination as Vice President.
· Buchanan still has substantial advantages: Wellstone is the most liberal senator in the party, having taken office mostly as a result of economic uncertainty and, ironically, as a result of shifts in the political debate caused by Buchanan’s industry policy. Rhetoric that would have been inflammatory just five years before becomes standard practice, as many of Buchanan’s worker protections have become accepted practice.
· Buchanan’s last budget, the 2000 budget, is by far his most moderate. His more radical spending cuts are redressed, although this threatens to send the budget into deficit. His extensive tax cuts in the three previous budgets, however, deny him the necessary funding to adopt populist gambits, at least without raising taxes (which he refuses to do).
· The Republican National Convention is a sombre affair, with divisions in the party still apparent. John McCain’s 400 delegates insist on voting for him, even though he is denied a speaking spot and largely ostracised. Major party luminaries who endorsed McCain – Bob Dole, Tommy Thompson, George H. W. Bush – are effectively excluded from the party.
· Buchanan is further embarrassed when his first choice to replace Wilson as Vice President, Florida Governor Jeb Bush, publicly refuses the post. As an olive branch to McCain’s camp of the party, Buchanan chooses Texas Governor George W. Bush, who endorsed McCain during the primary.
· The Democratic National Convention, by contrast, is widely seen as enthusiastic and even celebratory – with oil prices soaring and a mortgage crisis looming, the election is seen as theirs to lose. Wellstone, as a quid pro quo for her earlier support, chooses Jeanne Shaheen as his running mate.
· Buchanan receives a brief political salvation, however, shortly after the convention, when Wellstone is diagnosed with a mild form of multiple sclerosis, previously claimed to be ‘an old wrestling injury’. Public unease over the injury manifests itself in the polls: briefly, Buchanan takes the lead.
· Buchanan, capitalising on this, announces the only major political initiative of 2000: the abolition of the capital gains tax, or at least its drastic reduction. The measure, reflecting long-held beliefs, backfires, after a negative ad campaign by Democratic political committees.
· The New Tax System Act fails in the House of Representatives, with two dozen Republican Congressmen – fearing Buchanan’s defeat, and wishing to secure independence from his negative coattails – crossing the floor against it.
· The failure of his last major political initiative effectively spells the end for Buchanan.
· The Presidential debates are uneventful, with both candidates attempting to present a moderate image. Jeanne Shaheen is held to have clearly won the vice presidential debate over George W. Bush.
· Buchanan, facing fundraising difficulties, is unable to meet Wellstone’s grassroots funding base and major Democratic donors. The ‘50%’ ad, showing the price differences on common products before and after the Buchanan administration, is released in swing states by the Wellstone campaign. Buchanan’s response, the ‘500%!’ ad, projecting massive tax increases under Wellstone, is not well received.
· Marcy Kaptur, the architect of Buchanan’s labour and industry policies, endorses Wellstone in October. The week of coverage that follows this effectively drowns out Buchanan’s closing message.
· The general election is much closer than the most optimistic estimates, which projected a Democratic blowout, indicated. Wellstone wins 53%; Buchanan wins 45%, with 2% going to minor candidates (and write-ins for John McCain). This translates to a 329-209 victory in the Electoral College.

Buchanan leaves office with an approval rating of 37%, disapproval 54%. His administration is positively remembered by some unions, conservative think-tanks, anti-immigration activists, and parts of the Rust Belt, which defied a national swing to support Buchanan due to his protectionist policies. Otherwise, he is considered a failed President.
 
Very interesting TL. :cool:

I agree, BlackMage, interesting timeline.:) Can we assume that a president Buchanan would be the last gasp of the “old right” and that the neoconservatives would take over the GOP in this scenario? In this scenario, I think 9/11 would still happen and Wellstone would get the blunt of the blame for the attacks and be accused by the GOP of not doing enough to bring the perpetrators to justice. The GOP would win a landslide in 2002 and take the senate and expand its margins in the house. In 2004, the GOP primary would be between George W. Bush and John McCain. I think McCain wins in this one, due to him challenging Buchanan in 1996 and as a result probably being more well regarded then he was in OTL. McCain then goes on to win the general, and we'll go into at least Iraq under one pretense or another.
 
Interesting timeline. Thanks for the kudos.

Does McCain have the same fixation on Iraq that Bush does?

He supports "staying the course" now, but that doesn't necessarily mean he'd support jumping in.

Also, what effects will a German-British intervention in Kosovo have on Europe? Britain is acting indepedently of the US and Germany is flexing its muscles.
 
I agree, BlackMage, interesting timeline.:) Can we assume that a president Buchanan would be the last gasp of the “old right” and that the neoconservatives would take over the GOP in this scenario? In this scenario, I think 9/11 would still happen and Wellstone would get the blunt of the blame for the attacks and be accused by the GOP of not doing enough to bring the perpetrators to justice. The GOP would win a landslide in 2002 and take the senate and expand its margins in the house. In 2004, the GOP primary would be between George W. Bush and John McCain. I think McCain wins in this one, due to him challenging Buchanan in 1996 and as a result probably being more well regarded then he was in OTL. McCain then goes on to win the general, and we'll go into at least Iraq under one pretense or another.

If an equivalent to 9/11 happens, chances are Buchanan and his isolationist foreign policy will be blamed (if only we had engaged with the world more, then we could have stopped terrorism in its tracks!) rather than Wellstone and the Democrats.

Of course, it would all depend on how Wellstone handles the attacks. I think that he would handle such a disaster competently...where the USA goes from there, I have no idea. He definately would not go after Iraq, however.
 
Thanks for the compliments, guys.


Can we assume that a president Buchanan would be the last gasp of the “old right” and that the neoconservatives would take over the GOP in this scenario?


Not necessarily; he could have established a base in the party much stronger than in OTL. Buchananism would be an acceptable philosophical variant. Remember, he won the nomination twice, which must involve some consolidation of his condition. But after his defeat, I agree, the neoconservatives would be strengthened (having been cast into the wilderness under Buchanan).

In this scenario, I think 9/11 would still happen and Wellstone would get the blunt of the blame for the attacks and be accused by the GOP of not doing enough to bring the perpetrators to justice.

I disagree. For starters, that's eight years after the initial POD. Buchanan has withdrawn significant US forces from the Middle East; although congressional hostility has prevented him from supporting Israel, he's been noticeably cooler than in the past. (Israel, somewhat more isolated internationally, has been forced into a more conciliatory pose.) And besides, Buchanan did slash immigration quotas; it's unlikely the terrorists could enter the United States at all, although certainly still possible.

Even if 9/11 did still occur, it would be in a very different form to what actually happened, and I don't see why Wellstone would be blamed. His foreign policy is substantially more internationalist than that of Buchanan; he would still invade Afghanistan, and probably be able to gain popular support in the aftermath (as probably any leader would). If anything, the attacks might strengthen the isolationist wing of the GOP, as evidence of the dangerous consequences of foreign entanglements.

The GOP would win a landslide in 2002 and take the senate and expand its margins in the house. In 2004, the GOP primary would be between George W. Bush and John McCain. I think McCain wins in this one, due to him challenging Buchanan in 1996 and as a result probably being more well regarded then he was in OTL.

Buchanan is still very unpopular, even in 2002; remember, his tariffs poisoned world trade, and had a substantial effect on the cost-of-living. The Democrats can definitely campaign on that. And McCain, even though he ran in 2000, would probably be anethema to the GOP base, having decisively broken with the party during his run, and been blamed for their loss (through his refusal, albeit mutual with Buchanan, to reach out for party unity). It might be Bush, but it could also be Forbes (former Secretary of the Treasury in this TL, and hence remaining an influential force) or, if 9/11 occurs, Giuliani or Pataki.

McCain then goes on to win the general, and we'll go into at least Iraq under one pretense or another.

I agree; Iraq was neoconservatism's white whale.

In OTL, Wellstone voted against the Authorisation of Military Force (his last vote, or near to it). But why do we assume that in TTL, he would oppose the war in Iraq? Remember, the late-1990s Democrats were very hawkish, eager to do Good abroad by fighting tyranny wherever it should be. It would depend on his advisors and political circumstances, but it's possible (although not probable) that Wellstone could be inspired to launch the war on the grounds of 'spreading democracy abroad', as opposed to WMD.

That would, however, lead to a very different war; probably immediate elections after arriving (as opposed to nearly two years later), an Iraqi provisional government, and quick withdrawal, without the neoconservatives' ambitious projects of a 'Peoria in the Middle East'. We could actually have a successful Iraq under Wellstone, albeit an unpleasant and sectarian place...
 
Hey, I know this is a shameless bump, but I was thinking about this timeline the other day, and I reread, what a great TL it was...I wish it continued up the present day. Here is my best shot at guessing what would happen Electorally during this timeline. Here's the Presidential List

42. William J. "Bill" Clinton (D-AK): January 20th 1993-January 20th 1997
43. Patrick J. "Pat" Buchanan (R-VA): January 20th 1997-January 20th 2001
44. Paul D. Wellstone (D-MN): January 20th 2001-October 25th 2001*
44. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH): October 2th 2001-January 20th 2009**

45. J.C. Watts (R-OK): January 20th 2009-???**

Notes.

42. Assasainated by Al Queda Terrorists.
44. First Female President
45. First African American President



********

1996....

genusmap.php


Patrick J. "Pat" Buchanan/Pete Wilson: 273 Electoral Votes
William J. Clinton/Albert Gore Jr.: 265 Electoral Votes

2000...

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Paul Wellstone/Jeanne Shaheen: 329 Electoral Votes
Pat Buchanan/George W. Bush

2004...

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Jeanne Shaheen/Bob Graham: 404 Electoral Votes
Pete Wilson/Bill Owens: 134 Electoral Votes

2008...

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J.C. Watts/John McCain: 274 Electoral Votes
Bob Grahm/Bill Richardson: 264 Electoral Votes
 
Well, many of Buchanan's ideas only emerged after 9/11- which may not happen if Buchanan changes policy. (Or the Cole bombing or the Embassy bombings.)
Between getting out of NAFTA, and getting out of NATO, some on the left may have a few good words for Buchanan- though the Neoconservatives may object strenuously. (And, with the US out of NATO, the defense budget may get cut quite a bit...)
Further, with the US out of NATO, that removes a major component of NATO's push eastward. This will improve relations with Russia. (Unless, of course, they are trying to get Russia in...)
One more thing. Religious Conservatives would likely enjoy most of Buchanan's administration. However, the dispensationalists who believe the relatively-modern end times theory would attack Buchanan for abandoning Israel. (The Dominionist Reconstructionists would like him- though some of them venerate the Austrian School almost as much as the Old Testament and as such would favor free trade...)
 
My timeline "Years of Flames" has Buchanan running in 1996. It may seem a little ASB at first, but it won't be. That was only Iowa.
 
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