Bryan In 1916?

The possibility has come up now and then in AH that William Jennings Bryan might have gained a fourth nomination in 1912. But, had anything happened to Wilson, could he even have got one four years later?
PoD June 1916. The Democratic Convention is in process of packing up, having duly renominated Wilson and Marshall for their second terms. Then the telephone rings and the world is turned upside down. Wilson has been found unconscious at the foot of the staircase at Shadow Lawn. An ambulance was sent for but the President has died before reaching hospital.

The delegates hastily reassemble, for the business, they suppose, of choosing a running-mate for President Thomas R Marshall. However, the new President has a shrewd awareness of his own limitations. In particular, he doubts his own ability either to keep the country out of war (as his party is now seemingly pledged to do. Whatever mental reservations the late President may have had, Governor Glynn's keynote speech, and even more the delegates' response to it, has left little wriggle room) or to be an effective war leader should it come. The Convention gets a second bombshell within 24 hours of the first, as he firmly declines the nomination - and recommends Mr Bryan in his place!

The delegates hesitate. It is only days since they cheered Bryan to the rafters, suspending the rules so that he might come down from the Press Gallery (descending from the Cross?) to address them. Yet those cheers had, for many, contained an element of "saying goodbye" and not everyone who so wildly applauded Bryan had contemplated voting to renominate him. Yet quite a few now will, and there is every likelihood that rejecting him will require a ding-dong battle, and make a gift of the White House to Justice Hughes.

Nobody wants that, so the end is rather anticlimactic. After Bryan has been duly proposed and seconded, the Chairman asks (some observers think almost pleadingly) whether any other names are to be offered in nomination. The silence is deafening. Even the doubters recognise a foregone conclusion when they see one. The Great Commoner has been nominated once again.

Any thoughts on what happens next? In particular, will Bryan be able to defeat Hughes in November? Looking at where the swing states mostly are, and the ethnic makeup of some of them, he would seem to me at least in with a chance, but others may think differently. Comments?
 
This depends very much on Wilson's health in 1916, so that's arguably the real 'WI' factor here.

I don't know Thomas Marshall really well, would he plausibly decline to be nominated? I might be making a fool of myself asking that.

I think Bryan stands a chance, but at the same time, wouldn't losing X times already give him a stigma? The man should've run in 1912, he would've won for sure that time.
 
Bryan's resignation

Even without the advantages of incumbency, Bryan should be able to win the election.

The POD is credible although the fact that Bryan resigned as Wilson's Secretary of State just the prior year might have made him less amenable to Wilson loyalists. I'm not altogether sure Marshall would've turned down a nomination. His constitutional scruples meant that he was less than assertive in becoming Acting President when Wilson was disabled and the extent of that disability was being kept a secret, but a case where Wilson is definitely dead and Marshall has succeeded to the White House might have been different.
 
Last edited:
Yes, but there could have been something of a sympathy vote, on the other hand WIlsons VP would not have likely become the nominee, he didn't exert any influence when Wilson had his stroke later on.
 
Bryan v Hughes

It was such a close election for Wilson the incumbent that I can't see Bryan beating Hughes.

Wilson had the advantage of incumbency but Bryan was a well-known figure and a gifted orator. Assuming that we're talking about a smooth nomination process for Bryan, those factors should offset each other.
 
After his performance at the 1912 convention and his dismal performance as Wilson's SecState, Wilson wouldn't appoint him port inspector, much less VP. Stomping off in a huff when you don't get your way is just not something political operators forgive. Most of the Democratic party is going to feel much the same way about him - by 1916, Bryan is not a candidate, he's a string of embarrassing incidents.
 
Top