Brusilov Offensive

I just read something about the Brusilov Offensive in 1916 and wondered if this offensive was hugely succesfull (more than it was OTL), could the Austro-Hungarian Empire have collapsed?

Could the collapse be in a Germany-1918 style with revolutions all over the place and every nation declaring independance or maybe less dramatic, just opting for peace talks, breaking off it's alliance with Germany?
 

mowque

Banned
I don't know if Russia had the logistical capabilities to follow up in a smashing way. They could have dealt Austira a devestating blow however.
 

Deleted member 1487

Very unlikely.
As already mentioned the logistical capacity wasn't there. The Russians already advanced far too far and found themselves a victim of their success. Thinking the AHs were ready to collapse, they pushed their armies to the point of ruin, finding out that they couldn't get farther than they did. Much like the German in 1918, the exploitation capacity was simply not there and when advancing too far the attacker found himself at the mercy of the defender, who now had fallen back on his supply sources. Reinforcments and artillery were railed in for the defender, whereas the attacker had to wait for horses to bring everything forward over shell holes and bad roads.

As a result of this the 2nd and 3rd pushes, after the successful initial breakthrough, the Russians simply ground themselves up on Central Powers' defenses and counterattacks. The ultimate result was that they ended up with worse losses than they inflicted.

I personally am beginning to think the Brusilov was overrated and ended up being as successful as he was simply because he opponent was terrible. When facing the Germans his supposed skill seemed to desert him and he also frequently had the problem of not knowing when to stop an offensive. Though clearly the best general available to the Russians he still recklessly used up his men every bit as brutally as Conrad, but he had reserves to make it up. Too bad for him the Russian manpower he sacrificed didn't take kindly to being thrown away like candy.

Bottom line is that the Russians did the best they could, taking advantage of Conrad's strategic mistake. I wonder though if they might have hurt the AHs worse had the Russians not been as successful initially, keeping them closer to their railheads from which they could simply out resource their opponent and grind him to death.
 

Germaniac

Donor
Very unlikely.
As already mentioned the logistical capacity wasn't there. The Russians already advanced far too far and found themselves a victim of their success. Thinking the AHs were ready to collapse, they pushed their armies to the point of ruin, finding out that they couldn't get farther than they did. Much like the German in 1918, the exploitation capacity was simply not there and when advancing too far the attacker found himself at the mercy of the defender, who now had fallen back on his supply sources. Reinforcments and artillery were railed in for the defender, whereas the attacker had to wait for horses to bring everything forward over shell holes and bad roads.

As a result of this the 2nd and 3rd pushes, after the successful initial breakthrough, the Russians simply ground themselves up on Central Powers' defenses and counterattacks. The ultimate result was that they ended up with worse losses than they inflicted.

I personally am beginning to think the Brusilov was overrated and ended up being as successful as he was simply because he opponent was terrible. When facing the Germans his supposed skill seemed to desert him and he also frequently had the problem of not knowing when to stop an offensive. Though clearly the best general available to the Russians he still recklessly used up his men every bit as brutally as Conrad, but he had reserves to make it up. Too bad for him the Russian manpower he sacrificed didn't take kindly to being thrown away like candy.

Bottom line is that the Russians did the best they could, taking advantage of Conrad's strategic mistake. I wonder though if they might have hurt the AHs worse had the Russians not been as successful initially, keeping them closer to their railheads from which they could simply out resource their opponent and grind him to death.

I disagree,

I think that the Brusilov Offensive could cause the collapse of A-H, however it would be a whole lot easier if the POD is a few months before the Lake Naroch offensive. Had the Russians focused on capturing Lemburg instead of Kowel, the Austrians would have been completely unable to resist the attack. Brusilov made another error in changing his tactics after the first attack. After the Germans began sending more reinforcements south, the Russians stopped using the infiltration tactics that made the first wave so successful and returned to the mass infantry charges which depleted the forces.

Brusilov was told that there would be absolutely no reinforcements, no additional shells, and an offensive in the north. He based much his attacks on the Idea that a mass offensive would be launched simultaneously. Had he known that the offensive was mostly on its own for the summer, he would not have focused on targets which only made it simpler for the northern offensive.

Lets say that Evert and whoever Kurpatkin's successor was, I cant remember his name off the top of my head, had attacked on time, the chances are that the offensive might have reached its goals. Now had Brusilov been told that his offensive would be the only one, then he would have changed his goals, and once the Russians reach the Carpathian mountains, the Hungarians won't continue the war. If Hungary demands a peace, before the Russians attack across the paths into Hungary proper and before the Romanians join and threaten Transylvania, then A-H will ask for Terms.
 
Wiking, thanx for your answer.
So if I understand correctly as a external factor, the Offensive could have not make the Empire fall.

Do you think though a scenario, where the Offensive could trigger a situation
where some factions vying for independance (for instance Croats, Chechs, etc) could begin "revolutions" and a "civil war" within the Austro-Hungarian empire, could be viable?

I'm asking as I was wondering what the implications would be for WW1
if the AH Empire would fall in 1916.
 
Germaniac, if I understand you correctly, the Offensive could significantly contribute to the loss of the war by the Austro-Hungarians?
How long do you think they would hold out? Could they sue for terms in 1916 already?
 

Deleted member 1487

I disagree,

I think that the Brusilov Offensive could cause the collapse of A-H, however it would be a whole lot easier if the POD is a few months before the Lake Naroch offensive. Had the Russians focused on capturing Lemburg instead of Kowel, the Austrians would have been completely unable to resist the attack. Brusilov made another error in changing his tactics after the first attack. After the Germans began sending more reinforcements south, the Russians stopped using the infiltration tactics that made the first wave so successful and returned to the mass infantry charges which depleted the forces.

Brusilov was told that there would be absolutely no reinforcements, no additional shells, and an offensive in the north. He based much his attacks on the Idea that a mass offensive would be launched simultaneously. Had he known that the offensive was mostly on its own for the summer, he would not have focused on targets which only made it simpler for the northern offensive.

Lets say that Evert and whoever Kurpatkin's successor was, I cant remember his name off the top of my head, had attacked on time, the chances are that the offensive might have reached its goals. Now had Brusilov been told that his offensive would be the only one, then he would have changed his goals, and once the Russians reach the Carpathian mountains, the Hungarians won't continue the war. If Hungary demands a peace, before the Russians attack across the paths into Hungary proper and before the Romanians join and threaten Transylvania, then A-H will ask for Terms.


So is there a northern attack or not? You suggest both here, which means radically different scenarios. Going with your main suggestion that there is none planned and Brusilov is the main attack, fully supported and told so by STAVKA opens up a massive can of butterflies. OTL the reason that AH intelligence didn't set off warning bells about the attack is that it wasn't reinforced. Believing their defenses were solid, the AH thought they could handle an offensive from just the Southwest Front. If Russian troops, supplies, and artillery start to come in, then everyone knows what is happening, just as OTL and respond accordingly. That means the Germans come in and Conrad is probably forced to stop his offensive against Italy early, if it even happens at all. Actually, this might be worse for the Russians, as OTL success only happened because Conrad stripped the Eastern Front to the bone, in men, supplies, and artillery for his Italian offensive. If the Russians are organizing for a major push then he will be forced to deal with it. OTL he believed the defenses were up to snuff for a simple Front attack by the Russians, but if they were getting ready for a major push, he would have made the Eastern Front a priority.

So there are two options for the Russians, either plan launch two attacks, which they kind of have to do for the French (they can't just focus on the AHs while Verdun is going on), which means OTL plays out the same, as Brusilov is expected to support the northern attack, or Brusilov is the main offensive, which means German reinforcements from the north and no Italian offensive, so the AH forces in the East are twice as strong as OTL.

Either way neither scenario results in AH knocked out of the war.

And to your Lemberg option, which is doubtful if there is still a planned northern attack, it is still 60 miles away while OTL the Russians only made it 45 miles deep toward Kowel. It won't cave in the AH front anymore than the Kowel attack did, and leaves a major salient in the center, which would be ripe for a flank attack from the north.

OTL the Russians made it to the Carpathians, something a Lemberg attack won't do, and it didn't knock out the AHs. The only way the Russians could force them from the war would be to get a full army into the Hungary plain, something they had neither the logistics or men to pull off in 1916.
 

Deleted member 1487

Wiking, thanx for your answer.
So if I understand correctly as a external factor, the Offensive could have not make the Empire fall.

Do you think though a scenario, where the Offensive could trigger a situation
where some factions vying for independance (for instance Croats, Chechs, etc) could begin "revolutions" and a "civil war" within the Austro-Hungarian empire, could be viable?

I'm asking as I was wondering what the implications would be for WW1
if the AH Empire would fall in 1916.

Not really. Honestly the empire was too robust at this point, simply by inertia. The Southern Slavs weren't thinking about independence until late 1917-early 1918 and even then weren't unified on the idea. The Poles were still loyal until 1918 when Austrians screwed them over on a deal with Hungary, the so-called bread peace, while the Czechs were too small a group to do anything by themselves.

Also, the continued life of Franz Josef kept the peoples of the empire united to a degree. As hokey as it sounds, the long life of the emperor and his steady hand really acted as a symbol for the institution of the Habsburgs. So long as he is alive, there is just too much respect that the powerbrokers in the various parts of the empire have for the man to break up the empire.

The only thing that could have ended the war for AH by 1916 would be Russian troops overrunning the Hungarian plain, but the Russians were not strong enough to do so. Civil war was really not an option by 1916 either, the Empire was winning enough, as was Germany, to prevent any overt displays of major disloyalty. Independence-minded groups didn't really get traction until starvation kicked in in 1917. It takes time and organization to get a civil war going and threats from the outside kept the peoples of the empire together enough at this point to make it nearly impossible to do so. Like I said, only massive military defeat that saw Hungary getting conquered would end the war.
 
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