This POD much be one of the most mentioned and least discussed given how the threads always get sidetracked.
The obvious POD is Brock surviving Queenston Heights.
1813
Feb-March: Procter wades a campaign in Michigan and Western Ohio.
He manages to take and secure a point at Fort Miami and will later in year contest the area around the mouth of Sandusky against Harrison.
April: Forces under Brock repulses attack on York.
Early may: British forced to retreat in good order from the Niagara peninsula.
Late May: Brock leads sea born assault on Sacketts Harbour. The town is sacked and important shipbuilding supplies are carried off by the British. Along with the ship under construction (the Alt General Pike) being thoroughly destroyed.
Shortly thereafter the British and US fleets on Lake Ontario come to blows with the British taking a few enemy ships.
Early June: British use lake borne mobility to flank American forces on the British side of the Niagara at Forty Mile Creek.
Battle of Stony Creek results in the American force being destroyed.
Given British ascendancy on Lake Ontario, Brock is able to prevail upon Yeo to send additional men and material to the Lake Erie squadron.
Mid June : British retake fort George and thus expel American presence from British territory.
Late August: The British squadron on Lake Erie (here properly manned and cannoned) successfully takes the American squadron when Niagara and Lawrence are caught being moved over the sandbar at Erie.
* Or you can have the British win a stand up fight, since it was close run even with the poor state of the British fleet in OTL.
The British are now supreme on the Lakes.
When news of this reaches Harrison he abandons plans for an assault against Detroit and prepares a defensive action in South/EastOhio.
October Onwards: Brock takes forces from upper Canada and reinforces Procter in North West Ohio.
Late October: American attempt at Montreal is defeated.
November: Americans/Canadian collaborators cross the Niagara against the depleted forces Brock had left there.
They are unable to confront the British directly and instead put Newark to the torch, along with carrying off several loyal subjects of the crown.
December: A daring night raid by the British is unable to get into Fort Niagara whilst the troops stationed there are still in their beds.
The British take 29 guns, 7,000 muskets and a horde of clothing, 400 Soldiers and free several loyal subject taken hostage by the Americans.
Late December: The British retaliate in the burning of Buffalo along with taking Fort Schlosser.
January : Brock takes the bulk of his forces back into Canada, leaving the British supreme in Michigan, Northern Indiana, Western and Northern Ohio.
Procter now has a large native aiding him, with some raiding as far as
Kentucky.
April: Ship building gathers pace on Lake Champlain.
July: British successfully repulse the Americans from Fort Niagara, the US forces are forced into a dispirited retreat.
August: British take Sacketts harbour.
September: Sherbrooke accepts the surrender of Maine above the Penobscot.
British take Plattsburg and destroy American squadron on Lake Champlain.
British Takes Oswego.
November: Word of British victory on Champlain causes American negotiators to proceed upon the position of Uti possidetis.
Britain retains Maine above the Penobscot, The Niagara Peninsula, Northern New York ( possible a line running across at Sacketts harbour) and Maine above the Penobscot.
A British sponsored Indian state compromising Michigan territory, Northern Indiana and Northern Illinois, a tiny slice of Ohio. Roughly out to the Mississippi (the British probably get some of this directly).
This state would need to be recognised as being under British protection including having British forts on the land.
Probably also the US being treaty bound not to put warships on the Lakes they have access to.