British victory in Irish war of independence

Tibi088

Johannes Parisiensis said:
I don't think the Machiavel gambit could be accepted by a large enough section of both British and Itish leadership.
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I think it hangs on the british - but there I agree they are not willing to do what it takes.

Im hungarian. Hungary and hungarians during the Habsburg rule were very often referred to as rebellious - and with good reason. We received the Machiavellian treatment twice - and it worked in both cases. Especially telling is the story of our former communist dictator János Kádár. He has betrayed the 1956 revolution and resided ower a very brutal reprisal. In '57 and '58 I think you wouldnt have found anyone more hated in the country. By the late 60's its speculated that he would have won even on a free election - which is an incredible change of attitudes in just a decade. So however inhuman and morally problematic it is I do believe that it works. I think it would have worked on the irish as well.
 

yulzari

Some of the suggestions assume a British desire to keep Ireland but the drive was to get rid of it. Hence my suggestion earlier of cutting the Gordian Knot by unilaterally partitioning Ireland. Then the Irish can sort out their own politics for themselves and a civil war avoided (unless the Irish choose to have their own). Irish politicians will be too busy jockeying to be top dogs in the new nation to do much more than throw some rhetoric at partition and possibly grateful that the problem has been taken away.
 

Peg Leg Pom

yulzari said:
Some of the suggestions assume a British desire to keep Ireland but the drive was to get rid of it. Hence my suggestion earlier of cutting the Gordian Knot by unilaterally partitioning Ireland. Then the Irish can sort out their own politics for themselves and a civil war avoided (unless the Irish choose to have their own). Irish politicians will be too busy jockeying to be top dogs in the new nation to do much more than throw some rhetoric at partition and possibly grateful that the problem has been taken away.
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Mountbatten's India plan then, pull out quick and let them sort it out themselves. That worked really well in India and I don't see it going any better in Ireland.
 

MickCz

Peg Leg Pom said:
Mountbatten's India plan then, pull out quick and let them sort it out themselves. That worked really well in India and I don't see it going any better in Ireland.
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Mountbatten's plan worked rather well for the British who were on a hiding to nothing. The same as Palestine really; basically "If both sides are being a pain, they can do it without us..."
 

Ijon Tichy

I don't have time to read the whole thread, but has anyone raised the possibility of effects on relationships between the UK and the Commonwealth/Empire?

The Statute of Westminster in 1931 was the event in which London gave up its veto power over Dominion legislation. Smuts of South Africa said "we have brought home the bacon", to which Cosgrave, the Irish PM, said "yes, Irish bacon".

Absent an Irish Free State at that event, what's the outcome? Do we get a retention of veto power by London, and if so, what are the outcomes? Do Canada, the ANZACs, SA all break away? Or does the Empire evolve into some kind of tighter federation?

And then there are the repercussions outside the White Commonwealth. Anti-colonial movements in India followed both Irish constitutional and physical force nationalisms. . . they would have been taking notes and drawing conclusions about any defeat suffered by those movements (a defeat which would have needed quite a high level of brutality, as people upthread have already said).
 

cjc

Johannes Parisiensis said:
And what caused Protestants to separate themselves from Irish nationalism, when most of the first nationalists were Protestants?
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Simple the asindincy to begin whith was a purely aglacin one, and most of the Protestants in irland where a sertent kind of Scottish Protestant and there for had the exact same level of power as the Catholics (aka jack shit) after the rebelion in 1798 and Britain realized most Protestants in irland wanted independence same as the Catholics the ascendcy was made to be a purely Protestant one instead of gust aglacen. After that most Irish Protestants became Unionists.
 
Rinasoir

Rinasoir

A British Victory in the War of Independence would, best case scenario, just push the issue down the line for a few decades before it kicks off all over again. Worst case scenario it would turn the UK into an international pariah in the world as to keep Ireland, it would have to finally be rid of the Irish question.

By 1914, continued British control of Ireland is no longer on the cards, the best the British could hope for was a Dominion of Ireland, but even that wasn't going to come quietly, not with concerns of "Rome Rule" from our more excitable fellow dwellers of this island (to say nothing of those to whom Home Rule would have been an unacceptable compromise).

The earliest possible PoD to allow Ireland to still be in the UK, that I can think of, is somehow tagging Catholic Emancipation on with the Act of Union 1801, and giving a designated number of seats to Irish Catholics in the Commons. Couple that with a (if not butterflied) significantly better approach to the Potato Famine in Ireland, and you stand a chance of the Irish finally being willing to actually be part of this "United" Kingdom malarkey. But even then, the age of nationalism is just around the corner so it isn't guaranteed.

Would help if Galway, Cork, Limerick and Dublin received much more Industrial investment as well.
 

Peg Leg Pom

Rinasoir said:
The earliest possible PoD to allow Ireland to still be in the UK, that I can think of, is somehow tagging Catholic Emancipation on with the Act of Union 1801, and giving a designated number of seats to Irish Catholics in the Commons. Couple that with a (if not butterflied) significantly better approach to the Potato Famine in Ireland, and you stand a chance of the Irish finally being willing to actually be part of this "United" Kingdom malarkey. But even then, the age of nationalism is just around the corner so it isn't guaranteed.

Would help if Galway, Cork, Limerick and Dublin received much more Industrial investment as well.
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There is another possible option and that's to couple industrialising Ireland with moving people from Great Britain's workhouses to Ireland to take those new jobs. Now I'm not saying it's a good option or that it wouldn't cause a lot of trouble, but it is something they could have tried.
 

white crowe

The potential for the British to take their ball, go home and leave the Irish fight it out is extremely unlikely because one of the sides is explicitly fighting to remain British. Even if the Government wanted to stay aloof, significant elements of civil society and the armed forces are going to help the unionists, drawing the British into the conflict whether they like it or not.
 

sparky42

white crowe said:
The potential for the British to take their ball, go home and leave the Irish fight it out is extremely unlikely because one of the sides is explicitly fighting to remain British. Even if the Government wanted to stay aloof, significant elements of civil society and the armed forces are going to help the unionists, drawing the British into the conflict whether they like it or not.
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Not too mention that the U.K. is still going to want parts of Ireland for securing the Western Approaches no matter what.
 
Rinasoir

Rinasoir

Peg Leg Pom said:
There is another possible option and that's to couple industrialising Ireland with moving people from Great Britain's workhouses to Ireland to take those new jobs. Now I'm not saying it's a good option or that it wouldn't cause a lot of trouble, but it is something they could have tried.
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That falls under the category of "worse than OTL ideas" though a bit I'd think.
 

Nick P

Donor
Peg Leg Pom said:
There is another possible option and that's to couple industrialising Ireland with moving people from Great Britain's workhouses to Ireland to take those new jobs. Now I'm not saying it's a good option or that it wouldn't cause a lot of trouble, but it is something they could have tried.
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So you now have English folk moving to Ireland to take jobs from the Irish? The locals are going to love that...
 

yulzari

white crowe said:
The potential for the British to take their ball, go home and leave the Irish fight it out is extremely unlikely because one of the sides is explicitly fighting to remain British. Even if the Government wanted to stay aloof, significant elements of civil society and the armed forces are going to help the unionists, drawing the British into the conflict whether they like it or not.
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The 'taking the ball home' would be to just leave the 'south' but continue with the 'north' which separates the two inimicable sides.
 

Finbarr the Fair

yulzari said:
The 'taking the ball home' would be to just leave the 'south' but continue with the 'north' which separates the two inimicable sides.
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Or doesn't separate them. Because while the "north" contained a Unionist majority, Partition was not accepted by the minority or many of their fellow countrymen in the "south".

Unless you want a much smaller "north" and ethnic cleansing of Nationalists from it and a transfer of Unionists from other parts of Ireland into it.
 
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