British victory in Irish war of independence

[walmart]

Would it be possible for Britain to win the Irish war of independence and keep Ireland as part of the UK.

What would be the impact.

Could the UK retain Ireland to the present day .

 

[sparky42]

Would it be possible for Britain to win the Irish war of independence and keep Ireland as part of the UK.

What would be the impact.

Could the UK retain Ireland to the present day .

Depends on the price they want to pay really, militarily of course they could win if they were willing to use enough force, however in OTL the force used and some of the reprisals hurt them a lot both with the US and among the Dominions who were in contact with the Irish rebels and were trying to get London to agree a ceasefire (also the actions of units like the Black and Tans was pissing of the King as well).

Realistically, even if the U.K. won and assuming a level of force and reprisal beyond OTL, what the U.K. “wins” is a running sore that’s going to need constant military force deployed, marital law enforced, no functioning economy in Ireland and significant diplomatic damage within and outside the Commonwealth. Keeping Ireland long term is unlikely.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

Trying to hold Ireland long term dramatically changes the UK. It would be a much more repressive country and the Scottish and Welsh nationalists would be come down on almost as hard as the Irish, as would any form of political dissent. Not a country I'd want to live in.

 

[Retro_Reaction]

Michael Collins, founder of “The Squad” and a major thorn in the side of British intelligence was actually caught at some point and simply let go because they didn’t have a picture of him and had no idea who they had in their hands.

I think he barely escaped capture on several occasions. How much success you want to put in the hands of one man is entirely up to your own story elements.

 

[naraic]

Would it be possible for Britain to win the Irish war of independence and keep Ireland as part of the UK.

What would be the impact.

Could the UK retain Ireland to the present day .

Without becoming a tyrannical nation the best circumstance for the British is to end up giving home rule (becomes Dominion status) and have an independent Dominion of Ireland.

After the Easter Rising (1916) don't execute the leaders of the rebellion (except for any who were officers of the Crown (ala Sir Roger Casement, a British diplomat who had conspired with the Germans to land arms in Ireland), imprison them instead.

Republicanism remains a minority belief. After the war swiftly grant Home Rule (perhaps separately to the North and South of Ireland. Eventually Southern Ireland will progress to being a Dominion.

Would it have an impact? Perhaps a very small impact on ww2. More Beef sold to Britain in the 30s by Ireland. Weaker relations Britain and Argentina in the 30s.

A division of infantry and a dozen sloops or something along those lines for ww2.

If Britain chooses to fight and win the war of independence and suppress all dissent in Ireland they could of course do so but Ireland would still be a hotbed of dissent for decades to come and Britian would have to garrison it heavily.

 

[sparky42]

Michael Collins, founder of “The Squad” and a major thorn in the side of British intelligence was actually caught at some point and simply let go because they didn’t have a picture of him and had no idea who they had in their hands.

I think he barely escaped capture on several occasions. How much success you want to put in the hands of one man is entirely up to your own story elements.

The IRA of the day was very decentralised, with most operating at townland level, at the very most county level, as you can see from the different tactics and capabilities that were used at the time, losing Collins would certainly hit Dublin operations and impact some wider aspects but the War would continue without him.

 

[sparky42]

Trying to hold Ireland long term dramatically changes the UK. It would be a much more repressive country and the Scottish and Welsh nationalists would be come down on almost as hard as the Irish, as would any form of political dissent. Not a country I'd want to live in.

Given how Unions actively and pacifically acting against Crown Forces in Ireland and faced action from the UK Government, I'd agree. Of course added to this, if the UK is committed to either continuous action in Ireland or even just maintaining control afterwards, how much more unstable might the UK be in terms of the 20s?

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

There would be a lot more violent reaction to the General Strike for a start. A government prepared to do what they'd need to do to hold Ireland is going to treat it as an attempted revolution and respond accordingly.

 

[roachbeef]

You want a 1984 or V for Vendetta Britain for this to be possible. If it's not USSR-level Orwellianess or plain old ethnic cleansing, both of which I do not advocate, it is impossible to "win" (even that has as many definitions as there are people) when the opponent is a people you have oppressed and/or disenfranchised for centuries. I suppose you could replicate the concentration camp strategy during the Boer War if you wanted to go full-retard, but now you have a starving population and a devastated breadbasket.

In short, there is no way that is not morally reprehensible. Perhaps a POD centuries earlier.

 

[walmart]

If Britain chooses to fight and win the war of independence and suppress all dissent in Ireland they could of course do so but Ireland would still be a hotbed of dissent for decades to come and Britian would have to garrison it heavily.

Would this look like otl’s troubles or something like the PKK-Turkish conflict

 

[sparky42]

Would this look like otl’s troubles or something like the PKK-Turkish conflict

More than the OTLs Troubles anyway, remember by the end of the War UK control over huge chunks of Ireland was utterly gone, forces like the Black and Tans were brought in because the RIC just couldn't sustain operations. If you have even more aggressive British actions the RICand DMP forces will likely need permanent replacement. It's likely in such a case that the Irish Regiments would at best be "suspect", needing other forces deployed.

 

[KarmaPolice]

...Republicanism remains a minority belief. After the war swiftly grant Home Rule (perhaps separately to the North and South of Ireland. Eventually Southern Ireland will progress to being a Dominion...

There's the crux of the issue. Irish Nationalists wanted an all-Ireland Parliament in Dublin - due to simple demographics, this would have been overwhelming Catholic. The Roman Catholic Church was also heavily associated with Irish nationalism, mainly due to the fact that it was long the only 'Irish' institution in the country during the centuries of the 'Protestant Ascendency'. Unfortunately , said folks had a majority in the province of Ulster - thus the saying, 'Home Rule means Rome Rule'.

The Protestants in Ulster opposed this not just because of fears of being a minority in this new country which could be pushed out at-will [which ended up happening in the South], but the fact they felt British, not Irish. More pragmatically, they opposed Home Rule on the basis that it would cut Ulster off from much of her economic hinterland [the rest of Ireland] but if forced into it they'd accept it as long as Ulster was excluded.

But the Irish Nationalists weren't having that. Eire had to have Ulster. If nothing else, the province was the richest, most advanced part of the island. Eire without Ulster would be one significantly weaker and thus much less likely to climb out of being a rural slum and an economic satrap of the UK [again, which happened in RL until the 1980s].

Result: logjam. It was this logjam which the Liberal Government had in 1914; to the point where London was playing a game of promising both sides they'd get their way [which is impossible, obviously]. Ulster had even started plotting an armed rebellion if the Home Rule Bill was forced on Ireland [or more correctly, them]. There were rumbles of mutiny in the British Army over this, and even more worryingly signs of 'supporters' from the rest of the UK to help their 'kith and kin' in Belfast and Londonderry resist the attempts of Asquith and co to sell them down the Liffey to the feckless Irish for short-term political gain.

Point being; it had gotten to the point that neither side would compromise of their own free will. And Partition represents the fact that the war ended in a stalemate; the Free State not strong enough to make Ulster submit to them, but the British too weak to make Southern Ireland submit to them.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Victory - a long term Victory is slightly subjective

IMO long term Victory for the UK = Peace in Ireland

Anything else is a failure

My first thoughts around keeping Ireland as part of the UK is that the people of Ireland would have to 'want to'

So sending in the troops is not going to achieve this - and the Easter rising executions was clumsy and short sighted.

Better to have imprisoned those men (and as seems to happen in these sorts of things later pardon them and involve them in finding a solution)

It would have to involve ensuring that the Irish people - all of them - enjoyed the same rights and as far as possible standard of living as the rest of the 'union'

Now this may end up as a form of self rule or dominion statues whatever ends up working the best - but my biggest issue with the OTL resolution was the partition of Ireland.

It should have remained as one entity/nation (like England, Scotland and Wales are) regardless of remaining as part of the United kingdom or not and not been split.

Personally while I would like to see Ireland to have remained a part of the UK the most important thing (for both teh UK and Ireland) was to have kept Ireland as a single nation and none of this draw lines on a map divide and conquer bullshit.

 

[sparky42]

Victory - a long term Victory is slightly subjective

IMO long term Victory for the UK = Peace in Ireland

Anything else is a failure

My first thoughts around keeping Ireland as part of the UK is that the people of Ireland would have to 'want to'

So sending in the troops is not going to achieve this - and the Easter rising executions was clumsy and short sighted.

Better to have imprisoned those men (and as seems to happen in these sorts of things later pardon them and involve them in finding a solution)

It would have to involve ensuring that the Irish people - all of them - enjoyed the same rights and as far as possible standard of living as the rest of the 'union'

Now this may end up as a form of self rule or dominion statues whatever ends up working the best - but my biggest issue with the OTL resolution was the partition of Ireland.

It should have remained as one entity/nation (like England, Scotland and Wales are) regardless of remaining as part of the United kingdom or not and not been split.

Personally while I would like to see Ireland to have remained a part of the UK the most important thing (for both teh UK and Ireland) was to have kept Ireland as a single nation and none of this draw lines on a map divide and conquer bullshit.

You'd need a POD well before the War of Independence to get that outcome however, by the OP a divided Ireland is already "precooked" into any solution that the UK will allow.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

You'd need a POD well before the War of Independence to get that outcome however, by the OP a divided Ireland is already "precooked" into any solution that the UK will allow.

Oh totally - the point I was trying to make is that anything less than a 'peaceful' undivided Ireland that is fit for the Irish peoples (politically part of the UK or not) is a failure and not in the best interests of the UK (in the long run)

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

You'd need a POD well before the War of Independence to get that outcome however, by the OP a divided Ireland is already "precooked" into any solution that the UK will allow.

Well if you can manage to have the Reformation take in Ireland it would help.

 

[sparky42]

Well if you can manage to have the Reformation take in Ireland it would help.

I’m sure some other reason would be found.

 

[MickCz]

The IRA of the day was very decentralised, with most operating at townland level, at the very most county level, as you can see from the different tactics and capabilities that were used at the time, losing Collins would certainly hit Dublin operations and impact some wider aspects but the War would continue without him.

Wouldn't the War continue much longer without Collins? I know little about the political situation of the time, but wasn't Collins much more realistic in dealing with the British in negotiations? Also his vision for the country was not the rural one favoured by DeValera?

 

[Coley]

Of course the Brits could crush any rebellion,they always did.But if WW2 still happens as it did,consider what years of strife into the 30s does to the British image in the USA,especially the big city Democratic machines.Combine that with America First and the knowledge of what the British/French gained WW 1,and I think FDR would have a hard time with Lend Lease

 

[sparky42]

Wouldn't the War continue much longer without Collins? I know little about the political situation of the time, but wasn't Collins much more realistic in dealing with the British in negotiations? Also his vision for the country was not the rural one favoured by DeValera?

It would depend on a lot of factors, would British Intelligence be able to function better in Dublin leading to more infiltration? Would there be more pressure from Dev for large scale attacks like that at the Customs House that was a massive failure for the IRA (not too mention does Dev go/stay in the US fundraising?)There's plenty of POD's depending on when/how Collins could have been killed and what shape the following Anglo-Irish talks might be.