British victory during the Gallipoli Campaign

CaliGuy

Banned
Draws more Entente resources to the Balkans? More encouragement and supplies to the Russian armies? Gets a armistice with the Ottoman Empire NLT 1916?
Completely agreed with all of this. Plus, even if the Ottomans don't capitulate, the importation of Western supplies to Russia could be a significant boost for Russia both in terms of its economy and in terms of its morale.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Gets a armistice with the Ottoman Empire NLT 1916?
Given the Constantinople Agreement of March 1915 I don't see this happen.

The Ottoman Empire would be done and history in case the Dardanelled succeed.

A successfull landing/taking of the Gallipoli-peninsula would most likely be followed up by entente troops occupying eastern Thrace, maybe the "troian" penisula as well, follewd by a "battle of Constantinople" in lat(er) 1915, beginning 1916.
Then ... the entente supplies (ammo, weaponparts, weapons) would finally reach ports capable of processing them at the Black Sea (contrary to mostly incapable Archangelsk) as well as exporting russian grain to the entente to pay for them.
No "folding" of Russia in 1917 ... ? ...

(Well, yeah, better Brussilov-offense and so on, but, at least one of the major reasons for revolution (inability to moved existing food to where it's needed) would still prevail ... as many other shortcommings of russian "management" of and during the war also.
But this is a side question here.)
 
Given the Constantinople Agreement of March 1915 I don't see this happen.

The Ottoman Empire would be done and history in case the Dardanelled succeed.

A successfull landing/taking of the Gallipoli-peninsula would most likely be followed up by entente troops occupying eastern Thrace, maybe the "troian" penisula as well, follewd by a "battle of Constantinople" in lat(er) 1915, beginning 1916.
Then ... the entente supplies (ammo, weaponparts, weapons) would finally reach ports capable of processing them at the Black Sea (contrary to mostly incapable Archangelsk) as well as exporting russian grain to the entente to pay for them.
No "folding" of Russia in 1917 ... ? ...

(Well, yeah, better Brussilov-offense and so on, but, at least one of the major reasons for revolution (inability to moved existing food to where it's needed) would still prevail ... as many other shortcommings of russian "management" of and during the war also.
But this is a side question here.)

Russia would still not really be able to have Constantinople for long, for even if Communists/Radicals don't take over Russia, there will be a civil war, whether the anti-Communists/Radicals win or not is up for debate in this timeline where Non-Communist Russia is stronger. I don't know if the Allies sending resources to Russia by the straits is enough to keep it in the fight.

If Russia DOES fall into a Civil war... then what happen's to the straits? Let's assume the War is winding down and the Entente will probably be victorious with a somewhat stronger Russia and a more confident/Morale boosted allies and possibly extra resources. Then I imagine they'd need to hold a conference on what to do with the territory. They can't give it to the Turks, who are probably in chaos if the entire Ottoman Empire collapsed with this style of defeat. They can't give it to the Russians as they're in a civil war. Bulgaria? Possibly. But I imagine there are 3 options.

1. International Control under a separate 'basic law' West German style occupation

2. Give it to Greece

3. Divide it between Greece and Bulgaria

4. If non-Communist Russia wins they could get it back.

5. If a Republic of Turkey is able to be established with say Kemal, then I could see it being returned to Turkey if Greece, Bulgaria and Russia fall out of favour with Britain and France.
 
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Depends a lot on how fast it succeeds. Assuming the campaign is rapid, Bulgaria will probably stay out of the war which is huge

How long the Ottomans stay in the war is a bit harder to answer. Certainly, if the Ottomans know about the partition agreements among the allies, they'll fight long and hard but their ability will be greatly diminished. The Entente would probably grant them pretty generous Armistice terms with the partition scheme to be announced at the end of the war. This will get the Ottomans out early. Freeing up the British and Russian troops diverted to the Ottoman front is a big plus as well.

The opening of the Straits does wonders for Russia. Few military supplies will arrive before 1916 and the flood wouldn't come until 1917 simply because they weren't available However, civilian supplies would. The complete lack of consumer goods is fueling runaway inflation, especially in the cities, by late 1916 which is a major cause of urban unrest.

Russia's transportation problems would also be eased. No longer will large supplies be coming across the Trans Siberian from Vladivostok, coal could directly enter the Black Sea port cities and transport equipment imported. The lack of spare parts for the railroads is a major reason for the transport breakdown

The Russian revolution followed by a civil war is unlikely. The Russian revolution is one of history's great anti-wanks. Its a fluke that needs so much to go right to succeed its a miracle it happened
 
Depends a lot on how fast it succeeds. Assuming the campaign is rapid, Bulgaria will probably stay out of the war which is huge

How long the Ottomans stay in the war is a bit harder to answer. Certainly, if the Ottomans know about the partition agreements among the allies, they'll fight long and hard but their ability will be greatly diminished. The Entente would probably grant them pretty generous Armistice terms with the partition scheme to be announced at the end of the war. This will get the Ottomans out early. Freeing up the British and Russian troops diverted to the Ottoman front is a big plus as well.

The opening of the Straits does wonders for Russia. Few military supplies will arrive before 1916 and the flood wouldn't come until 1917 simply because they weren't available However, civilian supplies would. The complete lack of consumer goods is fueling runaway inflation, especially in the cities, by late 1916 which is a major cause of urban unrest.

Russia's transportation problems would also be eased. No longer will large supplies be coming across the Trans Siberian from Vladivostok, coal could directly enter the Black Sea port cities and transport equipment imported. The lack of spare parts for the railroads is a major reason for the transport breakdown

The Russian revolution followed by a civil war is unlikely. The Russian revolution is one of history's great anti-wanks. Its a fluke that needs so much to go right to succeed its a miracle it happened

So Russia would retain the straits. Russia no longer has a warm water port problem. Congratulations Russia.
 
More encouragement and supplies to the Russian armies?
Not just to the armies, IIRC the Russians had more than sufficient food to feed their population but problems moving it from the countryside to the cities due to logistical challenges. Opening up the straits allows them to start selling grain again for foreign currency which can be used to purchase trains and rolling stock alongside arms and materiel. A fed populace is less likely to revolt than a hungry one, and the extra supplies - plus ability to get them where needed - can only be a good thing for the army.


If that is the case the Ottomans would still be holding most of Mesopotamia and Palestine when they surrendered. What are the chances of them keeping at least the Lebanon and Syria in the peace treaty?
Not much I'd expect, the British are going to be retaining Iraq and Palestine which means that France needs paying off as well to keep them from throwing a tantrum. France already had strong ties with Lebanon so they're definitely getting that, Syria ending up more like Iraq with a Hashemite on the throne and the country within France's sphere of influence could be a possibility though.


Given the Constantinople Agreement of March 1915 I don't see this happen.
Even with the Agreement I can't see Britain and France keeping their word once the war is over. If necessary Russia can be paid off with German or Austrian territory but the British are not going to be wanting to see the Russians in the Mediterranean, arguing that conditions have changed since 1915 or to be more blunt that they did all the heavy lifting and ownership being nine-tenths of the law and all that.
 
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