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What if the Royal Navy introduced a comprehensive system of trade convoys during the first period of unrestricted U-boat warfare? That is what would the effect on the course of World War One be? And what would the long term consequences be?

For example during World War One reduced merchant shipping losses mean that fewer replacements need to be built and that releases shipbuilding capacity for other purposes. The most obvious other purpose is to build more warships, which might mean more progress on aircraft carriers and the other 3 Admiral class battle cruisers. Or it might be possible to use the steel and labour to build more tanks.

Or might it backfire on the Entente powers? That is reduced American merchant shipping losses mean the United States remains neutral.

I think the economic damage World War One did to Britain would be reduced. The larger merchant fleet would earn more foreign currency and generate more tax revenue for HMG which would also have to pay out less compensation to the shipping lines so the UK would come out of World War One with a smaller national debt. It would not be a very large reduction, but a reduction of 5% would mean a reduction of £15 million a year in debt interest payments between 1920 and 1935, which also happens to be about the average annual expenditure on the RAF over the same period.
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