British Politics following a CP Victory

It wouldn't end well if English troops brutally suppressed a Scottish mutiny. What happens in the mining industry?, is industrial unrest worst than OTL?, also what of Wales in your opinion?
Well before the war began there was plenty of industrial unrest in Wales and elsewhere; it's known to historians as the "Great Unrest" of 1910-14. In fact there are some (not me, I consider late 1918 to 1919 as more probable) who consider one of the most probably occasions for revolution in Britain was 1910-11, especially during the National Rail Strike in 1911. The strike was brief (only two days of full scale disruption) but showed to the Liberal government the power of the new union movement.
Asquith and Churchill (who was still Home Secretary, having not been relegated to the Admiralty yet) promised the extensive deployment of police and troops to keep trains running; thousands of troops were deployed, many against the wishes of local authorities who felt their present unnecessary and provocative (Churchill has, with Aquith's approval, suspended the regulation requiring local authorities to request military aid).
One of the results of this was the "Llanelli riots" which saw pitched battles between strikers and their families and supporters, and police and troops. Six people were killed (two when troops illegally fired into a crowd and four in an explosion on a munitions train[1]) and the locals responded by 'burning out' magistrates, police stations and local businesses. More than one hundred people were injured and at least one soldier refused orders to fire on civilians. He was arrested but escaped from custody (it's believed with assistance) which sparked a mutiny panic.

1911 also saw the Liverpool general transport strike, in which an alliance alof dockers, rail workers and sailors, paralysed commercial activity in Liverpool for nearly. The authorities responded violently; on 13AUG1911 a mass meeting on St. George's Plateau, was baton charged by police, leaving around five hundred people injured[2][3]. On 15AUG a relatively peaceful crowd was fired on (again contrary to common law) by troops of the 18th Hussars; two men were killed (both shot twice) and fifteen were injured.
Church responded by deploying additional troops (on top of the ~four thousand already in the city) and sending two cruisers (Antrim and Warrior) with contingency orders to bombard the city "if necessary"
By August, when the strike was settled, food was in short supply in the city as goods couldn't move without a Strike Committee permit but the authorities threatened to arrest those who obtained them. Interestingly the strike managed to unite the generally antagonist Green and Orange factions, with bands marching together.

1912 saw Britain's first truly national coal strike. This was settled by the government, after five weeks, who basically gave the strikers most of their demands. The strike hugely disrupted travel and transport, and effected military and naval activities. There was relatively little violence (though some staff who attempted to evict miners' families from homes owned by collieries, on which rent wasn't being paid, were warned off). The dispute did see the first moves towards a volunteer "Civil Guard" with a civilian volunteer force being formed to supplement police, 'specials' and troops.

It's important to remember that Britain (like Russia, France and Germany) was undergoing huge social and political change in the period. For example:
a. On 10JAN1911 at the Central Criminal Court suffragist Emily Davison (she of the "resident in the Palace of Westminster" stunt) was jailed for six months attempting to destroy the contents of Post Office letterboxes.
b. There were outbreaks of suffragist vandalism in March, with hundreds of windows smashed.
c. 31MAR saw a demonstration in favour of Home Rule in Dublin, with over a hundred thousand people present.
d. 09APR saw a demonstration against Irish Home Rule in Belfast.
e. March and April saw around twelve thousand Singer workers strike on Clydebank in support of dismissed women
f. On 21NOV suffragists stormed the parliament buildings.
g. On 18AUG the House of Lords is neutered by the 1911 Parliament Act, much to the horror of peers and Unionists. The act specifically allows for the upper chamber to be replaced by an elected assembly.
h. The London labour movement established it's own newspaper (which became the Daily Herald in 1912) to promulgate a pro-labour, pro-union and rather revolutionary message. Lloyd George did not approve...

The "establishment"[4] was scared. The hysterical reaction to Mann's "Don't Shoot" leaflet of 1912 (suggesting troops refuse to fire on civilians[5]) was one example of this[6].


OK, apologies for the digression, but after the war (OTL or yours) the problems that existed before the war began wouldn't be going away. Historically there was massive unrest and it would be much the same in your scenario, with a number of caveats.
1. Probably the UK isn't meddling in Russia. Quite likely the Germans are meddling there, but that's a different matter. This means much of the military unrest, related to deployments to Russia and broken promises, will be butterflied away.
2. I'm doubtful of the period 1919-20 being more than a 'Phony War' with some sporadic military and naval action between Britain and Germany. This is a Bad Thing for Britain as they're in a situation similar to German in OTL 1918; no-one wants to be the last to die in a war and one the end seems imminent morale will plummet.
3. Once peace is declared then a lot of soldiers and sailors will want out. Immediately. Expect the same troubles as historically, including mutinies and large scale desertion. This will be worsened by the sense of defeat.
4. RotPA1918. Has a version of this act passed to enfranchise women and the common man? This will help the rise of Sinn Féin and Labour. If it doesn't then a significant promise has been broken and people will be pissed. In fact the voting situation is interesting, will there be a 'coupon' election in 1920.
5. Ireland. Was there an Easter Rising? What form did it take[7]? Was there an Conscription Crisis[8]? Has Redmond senior survived? What happened at the Irish Convention? There are connections between Ireland and (for example) Glasgow and Liverpool, both industrial trouble spots. Depending on the suppression of an uprising there could be groups able and willing to organise the workers into a force able to protect themselves against the state.
6. German meddling. Has Germany the ability and motivation to meddle in UK affairs (if the Social Democrats are in power they might wish to assist the growth of socialism in Britain). With a little well placed meddling the unrest could be sparked into an insurrection...
7. Wales. Lot of iron, steel, and coal industry. Much of which won't be needed. Hence layoffs and wage cuts and angry workers. Many of whom have friends and family in the army who have been, or are awaiting, demobilisation. Possibly with a few souvenirs...
8. Given the creation of a mass army, how willing would such troops be to engage in suppression of popular demonstrations and strike. Has the ethos survived the reduction in numbers?

Hope this helps.



[1] One of the reasons why disruption of the GWR as so violently opposed by Churchill was the requirement of that network to move troops to Ireland.

[2] Interestingly, and a possible PoD, this event was filmed by a British Pathe newsreel cameraman who escaped the police with his film. It was developed but suppressed by the government.

[3] "...he Plateau resembled a battlefield, disabled and wounded men, women and children, lying singly and in heaps over a vast area." The Lord Mayor cabled London that a revolution was in progress.

[4] An detestable, over used and rather silly phrase, but a useful one

[5] An excerpt:
"When We go on Strike to better Our lot, which is the lot also of Your Fathers, Mothers, Brothers, and Sisters, YOU are called upon by your officers to MURDER US.
Don’t do it!
You know how it happens — always has happened."

[6] Prosecutions for sedition and incitement to mutiny, most of which failed though Mann was convicted. His jail sentence was quashed by public outrage.

[7] No cancellation of the full involvement of the IVF, use of guerilla warfare et cetera could have enormous consequences. Potentially including a British defeat at the Somme...

[8] A 1916 Rising without the conscription crisis (and the 'German Plot') basically means a marganlised Sinn Féin.
 
What are the Germans likely to be doing while Britain indulges in civil war?
It really depends on who's in power. A SD dominated government might be interested in helping out their comrades, a ore militaristic one might be interested in further weakening Britain, detaching Ireland (and Scotland) and very interested in the possibility of influence in an independent Ireland.
It hugely depends on the situation in Germany, but also Russia and France.
 
It really depends on who's in power. A SD dominated government might be interested in helping out their comrades, a ore militaristic one might be interested in further weakening Britain, detaching Ireland (and Scotland) and very interested in the possibility of influence in an independent Ireland.

Isn't the difference a bit overrated?

The Majority Socialists were content to abstain over the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, and iirc mostly voted yea on that of Bucharest. Their anti-imperialism was pretty muted as long as Germany seemed to be winning. The Independent Socialists voted against both, but their only reward was to lose the last two by-elections in the Second Reich.


hugely depends on the situation in Germany, but also Russia and France.

If it's 1919 then Russia is a negligible quantity, and France probably a pretty weak one.
 
Isn't the difference a bit overrated?

The Majority Socialists were content to abstain over the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, and iirc mostly voted yea on that of Bucharest. Their anti-imperialism was pretty muted as long as Germany seemed to be winning. The Independent Socialists voted against both, but their only reward was to lose the last two by-elections in the Second Reich.




If it's 1919 then Russia is a negligible quantity, and France probably a pretty weak one.
Agreed pretty much with your first point.
As for Russia, the question is what sort of condition is it is; stable monarchy, civil war, chaotic mess or otherwise.
 
Agreed pretty much with your first point.
As for Russia, the question is what sort of condition is it is; stable monarchy, civil war, chaotic mess or otherwise.

Well, as the OP assumes CP victory in 1918 or 1919, presumably Russia is in much the same mess as OTL. Certainly no reason for it to be a "stable" anything.even if the German Army has marched on Moscow and installed a new Tsar, that regime is likely to be precarious.
 
Well, as the OP assumes CP victory in 1918 or 1919, presumably Russia is in much the same mess as OTL. Certainly no reason for it to be a "stable" anything.even if the German Army has marched on Moscow and installed a new Tsar, that regime is likely to be precarious.
Agreed. And I doubt the Germans, even under Wilhelm II, are that stupid.

I've been considering this scenario, and discussing it at game night.
The basic premise is the 'main' war ends in 1919 with Germany, Italy, AH, Russia and France (plus their minor continental allies) no longer fighting leaving only a 'phony war' of raid, blockade and posturing between Britain and Germany until 1921. However there are three problems with it dragging on that long (especially given stated British deployment in Greece).
1. The Med is becoming a CP lake, with AH, Ottoman and German warships (plus subs, lots of subs) deployed there. I'd expect attacks on Gibraltar and mining of the Straits, plus any RN port, making operations difficult, even with the canal.
2. War fatigue is going to set in. Sooner or later the UK will realise that they've lost and come to terms with the new reality in Europe. I don't see it taking ~two years.
3. Once Germany can partially demobilise and transfer resources they can build lots of subs, and the blockade of Britain will begin to really bite. This also makes German meddling in Ireland highly likely as Cobh/Queenstown was vital to anti-submarine operations in the Atlantic. Expect a British 'turnip winter' in 1919 (especially given the historically bad weather that year[1]). This will ramp up the civil unrest as rations are cut and people want the seemingly endless war[2] to finish.

As for Russia. By early 1917 revolutionary change was going to happen, the question was what form would it take.
1. Constitutional monarchy with a Tsar (maybe not Nicholas) retaining some power.
2. Social democratic republic, perhaps under Kerensky. Perhaps the Germans decide that Lenin is too dangerous.
3. Extremist revolution, either communist/Bolshevik or militarist. It's possible that a faction might decide Nicky is a liability and decide to remove him and 'rationalise' governance.
4. Fragmentation and ongoing civil war.

Further there is the question of what bits of Russia are split off; Poland and Finland will go (and probably become German satellites). What about the Baltics, Ukraine and Belorussia? What to the Turks get? I suspect Germany will opt for a large buffer between it and Russia.



[1] yes I realise that several megaflutters of changes have been released and, given the chaotic nature of weather systems, there's absolutely no guarantee the weather in late 1919 will be similar to OTL. But then again it could be even worse...

[2] I'm curious about the influence this will have on speculative fiction. Might we see Wells producing something like Thing to Come fifteen years early perhaps?
 
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