British Political What Ifs

[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Helvetica]1) What if Home had won the 1964 election (he lost narrowly)
2) Wilson beats Heath in 1970 (the opinion polls all pointed to a Wilson win)
3) Heath gets a deal with the Liberals after the Feb '74 election.
4) Someone else other than Mrs Thatcher becomes Tory leader in 1975.
5) Callaghan calls a general election in October '78 (as he nearlly did)
6) Mrs Thatcher holds to the Premiership in November '90 (she was only 4 votes shy of winning on the first ballot)
6) Labour win the 1992 election (maybe in a partnership with LibDems)
7) John Smith doesnt die in May 94 so Tony Blair doesnt become Labour leader
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You missed a couple:

8) What if the LibDems choose to commit political suicide and go into some sort of coalition with the Conservatives that doesn't include PR as part of the deal, throwing away their one chance to get PR in roughly 100 years, as the Tories won't touch PR with the proverbial barge-pole?
9) What if the Conservatives choose to commit political suicide and go into some sort of coalition with the LibDems that does include PR as part of the deal, throwing away any chance they've got of ever being in power again, as no one on the centre or left of British politics with half a brain would touch the Conservatives with the proverbial barge-pole.

I find the current shenanigans all highly amusing. Goodness only knows what Clegg thinks he's doing. Hey-ho, time will tell. As that wise old Chinese bloke said, "May you live in interesting times."

Or should this post go in Future History?
 
[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Helvetica]1) What if Home had won the 1964 election (he lost narrowly)
2) Wilson beats Heath in 1970 (the opinion polls all pointed to a Wilson win)
3) Heath gets a deal with the Liberals after the Feb '74 election.
4) Someone else other than Mrs Thatcher becomes Tory leader in 1975.
5) Callaghan calls a general election in October '78 (as he nearlly did)
6) Mrs Thatcher holds to the Premiership in November '90 (she was only 4 votes shy of winning on the first ballot)
6) Labour win the 1992 election (maybe in a partnership with LibDems)
7) John Smith doesnt die in May 94 so Tony Blair doesnt become Labour leader
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I would argue that in the case of point 2, England doesn't take such a "early dive" in the 1970 World Cup, held in Mexico, as some have a proposed a theory, stating that the backlash over this defeat, was a major factor in Wilson's Election defeat (Mind you, given that said Knockout match was England Vs Brazil in a Mexican summer, playing in a stadium some 8000 feet above sea level, in retrospect, I would argue that the English team did far better than expected...).
Point 4: Keith Joseph in 1975 ? (Providing he did not make his infamous leadership killing gaffe, about "Discouraging The Lower Classes from Breeding", that made it onto BBC News, which effectively killed his chance of becoming the Tory leader off...).
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Related to that, could you get a political WI where Britain is presented as a single nation in national sports.
 
I would argue that in the case of point 2, England doesn't take such a "early dive" in the 1970 World Cup, held in Mexico, as some have a proposed a theory, stating that the backlash over this defeat, was a major factor in Wilson's Election defeat (Mind you, given that said Knockout match was England Vs Brazil in a Mexican summer, playing in a stadium some 8000 feet above sea level, in retrospect, I would argue that the English team did far better than expected...).

You wouldn't be talking of Nick Hancock's 'What Didn't Happen Next', would you? One of the best works of sporting WI's ever! Anyway, England didn't play Brazil in the knockout stages, they played Brazil in the group stages (losing 1-0), and West Germany in the quarter finals (losing 3-2). They couldn't meet Brazil again until the final.

Nick Hancock posits that England goalkeeper Gordon Banks doesn't get his tummy bug, allowing him to play against West Germany (OTL Peter 'The Cat' Bonetti played, and while a good keeper, was no Banks), and helping England to victory. Harold Wilson then becomes very fond of seeing "Have you noticed how England only ever win the World Cup when Labour are in power?" - a victory over Italy in the semi-finals a day before the election is enough to convince superstitious football fans, and Labour are returned with a workable majority. England go on to lose the final to Brazil, but England recognise that they've lost to the best team in the world, so there are no hard feelings. Politically there follows a period of great and conciliatory politics, with Labour and the Conservatives taking turn in government - the NHS etc. are the envy of the world.
 
There are a lot of interesting WI with respect to general elections and leadership elections as well as the above:

1. Attlee wins in 1950, with enough of a majority to get another five years....
2. Attlee wins in 1951.
3. Heath wins outright in February 1974
4. Another hung parliament in October 1974 (I think that could get very messy) or
5. Heath manages a majority in October 1974.
After this point, the two party system starts to break with minor parties (especially Liberal/SDP/Lib Dem/Alliance coming to the fore).
6. Foot does even worse in 1983, and though he gets more seats, gets less votes than the Alliance. Tories still win, but will Labour get wiped out?
7. Major loses in 1997, but by less. Labour majority (say) of 140. 2001 sees this majority eaten into again a little more than it was eaten into OTL (Say majority only 120 after that election) followed by a (just) hung parliement in 2005 as Blair only manages 320 and falls just short - Does he form a minority, assuming Sinn Fein won't take seats... or does he form some alliances?
 
You wouldn't be talking of Nick Hancock's 'What Didn't Happen Next', would you? One of the best works of sporting WI's ever! Anyway, England didn't play Brazil in the knockout stages, they played Brazil in the group stages (losing 1-0), and West Germany in the quarter finals (losing 3-2). They couldn't meet Brazil again until the final.

Nick Hancock posits that England goalkeeper Gordon Banks doesn't get his tummy bug, allowing him to play against West Germany (OTL Peter 'The Cat' Bonetti played, and while a good keeper, was no Banks), and helping England to victory. Harold Wilson then becomes very fond of seeing "Have you noticed how England only ever win the World Cup when Labour are in power?" - a victory over Italy in the semi-finals a day before the election is enough to convince superstitious football fans, and Labour are returned with a workable majority. England go on to lose the final to Brazil, but England recognise that they've lost to the best team in the world, so there are no hard feelings. Politically there follows a period of great and conciliatory politics, with Labour and the Conservatives taking turn in government - the NHS etc. are the envy of the world.
Ah.

It goes much better than the other 'What if Gordon Banks had Played' TL, then... I won't spoil that one for you.
 
There is no way Heath wins in October '74. The Tories were fighting a lost battle, with a leader soon to be challenged and who FUBARed as PM, along with Wilson causing Greece-lite. Wilson was only marginally better IMHO. Even if there was a hung parliament, much as Clegg did with Gordo, the Liberals would demand another PM other than Heath, along with PR. Heath would never voluntarily leave- he lost 3 of 4 times, FUBARed the fourth, and had to be dragged out kicking and screaming IOTL.

What about Churchill winning in 1950? Presumably he steps down in 1953, because there's no way in hell he's fighting another campaign.
 
Ah.

It goes much better than the other 'What if Gordon Banks had Played' TL, then... I won't spoil that one for you.

Ah, I've read that one too - I'm always struck that Enoch Powell tends to do remarkably better in ATLs than he did OTL...I can think of a couple of other timelines where he becomes PM (with disastrous consequences!), but I suppose I can see why.

In our interesting times, one of the most interesting British Political What Ifs is to ask: what if Gordon Brown had called a snap general election in 2007? With Labour riding high in the polls at the time (but the Tories showing a revival), I would wager that a snap 2007 election returns Labour to power, but with a much reduced majority - as they try to hold on until 2012, I can see political scandal (as ATL) and by-elections reducing them to a minority government like the Conservatives 1996-1997, before the Conservatives win a convincing majority at the next election.
 
You missed a couple:

8) What if the LibDems choose to commit political suicide and go into some sort of coalition with the Conservatives that doesn't include PR as part of the deal, throwing away their one chance to get PR in roughly 100 years, as the Tories won't touch PR with the proverbial barge-pole?
9) What if the Conservatives choose to commit political suicide and go into some sort of coalition with the LibDems that does include PR as part of the deal, throwing away any chance they've got of ever being in power again, as no one on the centre or left of British politics with half a brain would touch the Conservatives with the proverbial barge-pole.

I find the current shenanigans all highly amusing. Goodness only knows what Clegg thinks he's doing. Hey-ho, time will tell. As that wise old Chinese bloke said, "May you live in interesting times."

Or should this post go in Future History?

The probability wave has yet to collapse on this one, the scenario belongs in the future.

This paste missed two other options, a Rainbow coalition or a minority Conservative government and it ignores the fact that PR hasn't actually come up in any offers, the alternative vote is NOT PR and it could quite easily produce a Conservative government from second preference votes
 

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There are a lot of interesting WI with respect to general elections and leadership elections as well as the above:

1. Attlee wins in 1950, with enough of a majority to get another five years....
2. Attlee wins in 1951.
3. Heath wins outright in February 1974
4. Another hung parliament in October 1974 (I think that could get very messy) or
5. Heath manages a majority in October 1974.
After this point, the two party system starts to break with minor parties (especially Liberal/SDP/Lib Dem/Alliance coming to the fore).
6. Foot does even worse in 1983, and though he gets more seats, gets less votes than the Alliance. Tories still win, but will Labour get wiped out?
7. Major loses in 1997, but by less. Labour majority (say) of 140. 2001 sees this majority eaten into again a little more than it was eaten into OTL (Say majority only 120 after that election) followed by a (just) hung parliement in 2005 as Blair only manages 320 and falls just short - Does he form a minority, assuming Sinn Fein won't take seats... or does he form some alliances?

I like the idea of another hung parliament in '74 with the SNP with the balance of power. Wilson governs by promising a Scottish assembly. Mountbatten-headed aborted coup anyone?
 
Ah, I've read that one too - I'm always struck that Enoch Powell tends to do remarkably better in ATLs than he did OTL...I can think of a couple of other timelines where he becomes PM (with disastrous consequences!), but I suppose I can see why.
Yes. I have to wonder what he was actually like as a person and MP. No idea.
In our interesting times, one of the most interesting British Political What Ifs is to ask: what if Gordon Brown had called a snap general election in 2007? With Labour riding high in the polls at the time (but the Tories showing a revival), I would wager that a snap 2007 election returns Labour to power, but with a much reduced majority - as they try to hold on until 2012, I can see political scandal (as ATL) and by-elections reducing them to a minority government like the Conservatives 1996-1997, before the Conservatives win a convincing majority at the next election.
Might have happened... and that was pre-expenses-scandal, if I remember rightly.
Had John Smith not died, we might have good Old Labour in power, with more trade union rights.
Well... probably more complicated than that. Smith was a moderniser, not as much so as Blair & Brown. For exploration of this idea, you could do worse than look at V-J's thread on the topic.
 
What if David Blunkett's guide dog had been sick on Tony Blair's leg shortly before the 1994 leadership election and Blair had kicked the dog ... resulting in very bad publicity and leading to Blunkett and not Tony Blair becoming Labour Party Leader?
 
What if David Blunkett's guide dog had been sick on Tony Blair's leg shortly before the 1994 leadership election and Blair had kicked the dog ... resulting in very bad publicity and leading to Blunkett and not Tony Blair becoming Labour Party Leader?
That's a pretty bizarre one :D

Was Blunkett in the running?
 
Yes. I have to wonder what he was actually like as a person and MP. No idea.

Might have happened... and that was pre-expenses-scandal, if I remember rightly.

Well... probably more complicated than that. Smith was a moderniser, not as much so as Blair & Brown. For exploration of this idea, you could do worse than look at V-J's thread on the topic.

Enoch Powell was a classical scholar: became a professor of classics at the University of Sydney the age of 25 and knew over 10 languages, including Hebrew, Ancient Greek, Latin and Urdu. That's despite his Verwoerdian racial views. As a MP he represented white working-class (WWC) voters and was a diehard Unionist. While completely loony on foreign policy, he was an early Euroskeptic and along with Thorneycroft founded neoliberalism in the Tory Party nearly two decades before Thatcher became Tory leader.
 
Enoch Powell was a classical scholar: became a professor of classics at the University of Sydney the age of 25 and knew over 10 languages, including Hebrew, Ancient Greek, Latin and Urdu. That's despite his Verwoerdian racial views. As a MP he represented white working-class (WWC) voters and was a diehard Unionist. While completely loony on foreign policy, he was an early Euroskeptic and along with Thorneycroft founded neoliberalism in the Tory Party nearly two decades before Thatcher became Tory leader.

you left out that he was an evil racist

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23MEL7424aQ&feature=related
 
blackangel: I just said "Verwoerdian racial views". Keep in mind polling at the time indicated most of the country supported the underlying sentiments, if not his policy prescriptions per se. That certainly doesn't condone such evil racism, but let's not pretend that he was alone in these thoughts. That speech was a leadership challenge to Sailor Ted from the Tory right just as much as a peaen to apartheid.
 
blackangel: I just said "Verwoerdian racial views". Keep in mind polling at the time indicated most of the country supported the underlying sentiments, if not his policy prescriptions per se. That certainly doesn't condone such evil racism, but let's not pretend that he was alone in these thoughts. That speech was a leadership challenge to Sailor Ted from the Tory right just as much as a peaen to apartheid.

I'll always state that Rivers of Blood won Ted Heath the 1970 election, also I missed the 7 words out of 50ish
 
It was certainly part of it, but 1970 was really the British 1948. No one expected the Tories to win, after all Wilson had kicked Heath's ass in '66, turning a majority of 2 into a majority of 96. But there was the economy, which by 1974 would become Greece-lite thanks in large part to those two's policy prescriptions, England's loss in the World Cup, and bad trade figures. The minute Wilson saw an uptick in the polls for Lab, he called a snap election, as was Wilson's somewhat Rovian nature. Candidates were not even selected in some constituencies: for example Thatcher was unopposed by Lab in Finchley because Lab couldn't find a candidate in time. When you do half-assed prep, expect a half-assed result.
 
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