British people vote on Iraq war- a progressive wank

It happens that Liberal Democrats get an opposition day chance to propose a resolution to Parliament in early February 2003. Charles Kennedy is persuaded to propose a narrow motion on the war stating that UK forces should not go to war without a new Security Council Resolution,

The issue is to be debated on Wednesday February 5th. On February 3rd the earlier draft of Goldsmith’s advice as well as that of Foreign office lawyers comes out.

Ian Duncan Smith, the Tory leader is pressured from all sides. Some Conservatives want to vote with Liberal Democrats for tactical advantages, others say that they should support the government and the US.

Tories decide to Abstain

Robin Cook, Clare Short and some junior ministers resign.

The House votes

Liberal Democrat Labour Conservative Nationalist sdlp Unionist TOTAL

Yes 53 190 20 8 3 0 271

0 216 40 0 0 8 264

Abstention 101

Blair asks the Queen for dissolution.

Blair is able to prevent to persuade the Labour National executive to prevent deselections of pro war MPs but is not able to prevent the re- nomination of anti war Members of Parliament.

Kennedy, with great difficulty, persuades the Party to ask Liberal Democrat local parties in places where there is an anti war MP in a marginal NOT to stand. 47 Labour and 5 Conservative MPs are not opposed.

There are great anti war meetings in every constituency on February 15th.

Liberal Democrats are persuaded to stand down for independent, green, Independent Labour and nationalists in 82 constituencies held by pro war Labour Members.

74 pro Blair/war independent


Ian Duncan Smith seems even more ineffective than expected as Tory leader

As the election of March 6th approaches there are leaks about the thinness of the intelligences

95 pro war Labour MPs lose their seats. 52 to Liberal Democrats 19 to independent Labour, 6 to Nationalists, 2 to greens and 7 to independents. Martin Bell defeats Blair in Sedgfield by 53 votes.

Conservatives also gain 6 seats from anti war Members. 2 Liberal Democrats defeat anti war MPs.

Liberal Democrats gain 45 Tory seats.


The New Parliament is

Official Labour 313 (Anti War 188 Blairite 125)

Ind Labour 19 (all anti war

Conservative 135 (at least 23 anti war)

Liberal Democrat 155 (all anti war)

Nationalist 14 (all anti war)

Other GB anti war 19

Northern Ireland 18 11 pro war Unionists, 4 SDLP, Alliance 1) The Alliance Party won North Down on an anti war platform and Sinn Fein's abstentionism damaged them

Blair resigned.

John Prescott refused to form a government. After consultations Robin Cook forms a minority Labour Government.

The New government confirms refusal to join the war. It passes an Act calling for a referendum on electoral reform- Cook proposes straight STV rather than the Jenkins proposals.

Electoral reform is voted for 54% 46%

It takes a harder line on abuse of banking.


In the US GW Bush does not change his mind. The War starts a week later than in OTL but goes wrong more clearly and quickly than in OTL.

Senator Feingold defeats GW Bush by 53% to 47%

He vetoes the Bankruptcy bill, which the credit card industry had pushed.


Ken Livingstone (who had won Brent East) replaces Cook after his death in 2005.

The Tories are somewhat revived in the 2007 UK election. They get 35% of the vote and 225 seats. However the transfers make it clear that Labour and Liberal Democrats support each other

A Lib Dem/ Labour coalition takes office
 
Wishful thinking. At the time of the invasion public opinion was marginally on the side of intervention and initially there appeared to be no problems. An election before the problems of occupation began to become clear would probably have given a different result than that envisaged
 
In OTL when it became obvious that we were going to war there was a shift in public opinion, not wanting to be disloyal to troops.

If it were an open question I do not think that there would be such a shift. Plus if you count in the leaks I am imagining and a more informed debate, as would have had to have happened....
 
I really don't see the Tories doing that badly. They have the great advantage in that those unopposed or pro-war tend to be Tories, so wouldn't be put off voting, where as natural Labour supporters would be.

The Lib Dems, frankly, don't count. At this point the Tories were down to their core vote anyway, so can hardly loose even more seats.
 
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