British out in 1940: Effects on the Pacific and Asia

bguy

Donor
So if Britain makes peace with the Nazis in 1940 (we'll assume the same POD that Wiking used in his Three Little Fish timeline where Churchill is killed in October 1939 in the U-boat attack on HMS Nelson), and Hitler still invades the Soviet Union in 1941, how do things play out in the Pacific? I am specifically curious about:

1) Will Japan still attack the United States and United Kingdom if the UK is not distracted fighting Germany? and

2) How quickly can the US and UK defeat Japan if they are not simultaneously fighting Germany? Can Japan be defeated before the 1944 presidential election or is the war going to carry over into 1945 regardless?

I would think the answer to the first question is probably yes. The British are still going to have to worry about Hitler and Mussolini, so its not as though they'll be able to send their whole fleet to the Pacific, and the Japanese probably won't be too worried about the resolve of a United Kingdom that has already caved in against Hitler, so I think they were probably still throw the dice.

I have no idea about the second question. You can only build aircraft carriers so fast, so even without fighting the Nazis, there is going to be a limit to how big the US Navy can get at least through 1943. Would the British be able to send enough ships to the Pacific to measurably speed up the war?

Also, one related question: assuming the British hold a general election sometime in 1940 or 1941, and that Labour comfortably wins that election, what happens with India? Will a Labour government be willing to support Indian independence if Britain is still facing the (very likely) prospects of renewed conflict with Nazi Germany? Or is Indian independence off the table even with a Labour government in power for as long as the Nazi threat continues?
 
The first depends on political relations between US and UK/Netherlands. The US wants Dutch oil to stop flowing to Japan; OTL, the British and Dutch were happy to comply. If Japan retains access to oil, there's probably no Pacific war.

Here, they might not be interested in what the US wants, or they might be desperately trying to suck up to the US after all - it just depends on their grand strategy for dealing with Germany.
 

bguy

Donor
The first depends on political relations between US and UK/Netherlands. The US wants Dutch oil to stop flowing to Japan; OTL, the British and Dutch were happy to comply. If Japan retains access to oil, there's probably no Pacific war.

Here, they might not be interested in what the US wants, or they might be desperately trying to suck up to the US after all - it just depends on their grand strategy for dealing with Germany.

True, but I suspect that as long as Hitler is next door the British and Dutch will end up going along with the US on sanctions against Japan. The last thing they need is an outright break with the US.
 
With Britain out of the war, can the Germans "occupy/control" the DEI. While the US would strenuously resist any attempt by the Germans to control Dutch or French possessions in the Western Hemisphere, as unhappy as the USA would be with the DEI coming under direct or indirect German control I can't see the USN stopping a German naval force or troop convoy. With no war, the RN won't be doing that.

If the Germans have functional control of the DEI, then for sure they will continue to see oil to the Japanese. Japan occupies French Indochina and rice and some materials come from there. While the embargo of scrap, petroleum products including high octane fuel, machine tools, etc will still be painful for Japan the need for resources that caused them to move south will not be there.

Britain can move more forces to the Far East in this scenario, of course the question is how will they be used. Absent a better plan for Malaya/Singapore, proper use of air cover will it make a difference if push comes to shove with Japan. Also, assuming that German functional control of the DEI is present, the DEI could be truly neutral, or like Spain not so neutral which with French Indochina occupied, Thailand in the Japanese pocket, any British increase in forces could well be for naught. Again, the Japanese may decide not to go south if they don't have to.
 
Would the Japanese still go down French indo China though? That is the key question.

It is not automatic that everybody sanctions Japan even the US.

German DEI is crucial if you assume that the west automatically embargoes Japan.

My take is there won't be French Indochina invasion by the Japanese due to the unbusyness of the British navy. In order for you start a war, you need to calculate the British, US and the remaining French Navy for the Japanese planners. Chinese aid continues, us oil exports continue to Japan.
 

bguy

Donor
With Britain out of the war, can the Germans "occupy/control" the DEI. While the US would strenuously resist any attempt by the Germans to control Dutch or French possessions in the Western Hemisphere, as unhappy as the USA would be with the DEI coming under direct or indirect German control I can't see the USN stopping a German naval force or troop convoy. With no war, the RN won't be doing that.

Would the Germans be able to support a large enough invasion force to defeat the Dutch forces in the DEI? The Dutch will presumably fight the Germans just like they fought the Japanese OTL, and if Wikipedia is correct the Dutch had about 85,000 troops and a naval force that included 16 submarines in the East Indies at that time. That could be a difficult force for the Germans to overcome, especially since the Germans don't have any aircraft carriers, and thus any invasion force they send is going to be without any meaningful air cover.
 
I suspect what sloreck means is that Germany might tell the Dutch oil companies - or whoever actually controlled the DEI oil - to trade with Japan or, indeed, Germany. Whether the Dutch in the DEI obey that order is a different question, and is related to what the major power the region, Britain, wanted to happen, which is not clear at all.
 
what is the status of the Netherlands (and other Low Countries) under armistice with Great Britain?

Germans probably want to "assume" the Dutch and Belgian colonial empire, maybe under the cover of a Vichy-inspired Orange State?

GB and obviously France are going to be more worried about their own territories (the former sharpening their knives for round two and the latter collaborating even more.)

assume the DEI remains under nominal control of Dutch collaborator state they would sell oil to Japan, at least initially.

(assuming the British are not going to host or support a Dutch government-in-exile)
 
GB and obviously France are going to be more worried about their own territories
Both nations will be facing growing independence movements in their colonies. India and Burma would likely be independent before 1947, as will South Africa and any other place that has the political willpower to chuck out the Brits and French. No one wants to be ruled by loser foreigners.
 
GB and obviously France are going to be more worried about their own territories (the former sharpening their knives for round two and the latter collaborating even more.)

assume the DEI remains under nominal control of Dutch collaborator state they would sell oil to Japan, at least initially.

Both nations will be facing growing independence movements in their colonies. India and Burma would likely be independent before 1947, as will South Africa and any other place that has the political willpower to chuck out the Brits and French.

always look at that as most plausible reason for armistice, rather than the death or defeat of any one leader? (i.e. the quick loss of Malta, Gibraltar, and another uprising in Palestine)

to the OP and effects on Pacific War? with the requirement of invasion of USSR? (IMO the Soviets would have offered so many concessions, the Nazis MIGHT have waited?)

IF invasion of USSR proceeds, plausible Japan does just enough to placate Germans, say blockade and/or attack Vladivostok, Soviet fleet to receive DEI oil.
 
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