I have two connected questions about New York in the ARW. I've been thinking of a timeline where the British manage to win the Battle of the Chesepeake and evacuate the army from York town.
Nice POD. Late in the war too don't see a lot of those.
1. How much territory outside the city did the Britsh control in the ARW? I think they controlled Long Island and Staten Island but how far north did they control? And did they control the new Jersey shoreline?
Neither the Brits nor the Americans controlled a lot of New York. The whole Hudson Valley was kind of a zone of Guerilla warfare and general banditry. As far as the British being the actual arbiters of Law and Order I think the assessment of Harlem is right. Although, Loyalists militia ranged as far as modern day Westchester Cty and I think even raided up towards Albany and East to Connecticut.
2. Assuming no Victory at Yorktown, I can see the North Ministry surviving longer and taking a harder line in the peace negotiations than either of its successor Ministries. so What if they demanded an uti possedetis sort of peace, where they retained there holdings around New York. How would this affect things over the next decade?
uti possedetis? I don't know Latin that well so not sure what you mean. I would imagine the British would bargain away Manhattan for a border similar to the 1763 Proclamtion line. I think the US would take it, because as previously stated, New York is the best harbor and 2nd biggest city at this point. The Colonies need and want it back.
Would the capital revert to Philadelphia?
Yes, I also tend to think it would stay their for the foreseeable future. One of the reasons DC was even built was because most Southerners thought the Potomac was a great waterway into the interior and so would give the capital being were it is would give the South control of a huge port that controlled a lot of the export trade as well as the seat of govt.
Would men like John Jay and Alexander Hamilton and George Clinton have as much role to play in public affairs?
I say definitly to all three although I am less sure of Clinton than I am of the other two. Hamilton is the reason for existence of the Shuyler Faction in NY politics at all. Saying went, " The Livingstons had the money, the Clintons had the people, and the Schuylers had Hamilton" or something like that. No matter what happens to New York, there were two people believed capable of handling the Colonies financial situation, 1. Robert Morris and the 2 Hamilton, who was recommended for Treasury Job by Morris, I feel as though Hamilton, outside of being killed is probably in Washington's cabinet. The bond between the men was father and son like.
John Jay was about as respected as they come in the early years; Most people forget that Jay finished 3rd in the first EC behing Washington and Adams. While so much of Clinton's power resided in the City proper among the tradesmen and laborers. I think the Jay treaty in 1795 (?) will probably concern the status of New York, if it is kept by the English.
Assuming England keeps New York City, Clinton is largely deflated.
One thing to keep in mind this essentially assures that landed Dutch (I.E. Schuyler, Livingston etc.) maintain their control of state politics for the foreseeable future.
How does this affect the politics of New York state, now that it is a much less populous frontier state?
As I mentioned above this is a dramatic change in state politics. It makes the Federalists stronger, because they don't have to woo the "common folk" as well as probably leaves Schuyler in the Senate. Butterflies Aaron Burr's rise (at the very least he has to pick a faction between Livingston's and Schuyler's). I won't discount Clinton entirely because did we among the small freeholders in the upstate area, but I think his influence is much weaker and will probably make him a distant third if not totally irrelevant.
Would a British presence in New York be enough of an impetus for congress to fund a stronger Navy and/or Army?
I would think so. If the Federalists are stronger the Army and particularly the Navy will be stronger. We won't see a disbanding post-ARW and Washington will push for a stronger deterrent to British Schemes if the Brits hold NYC.