alternatehistory.com

I think it's often forgotten what the psychological impact of a real disaster at Dunkirk would have been to the British. It would have represented the greatest military disaster in history, far surpassing the surrender of Cornwallis at Yorktown. The loss of some 300,000 British and French soldiers with all their equipment (especially mobile and armour) would be devastating.

Let's assume that the BEF and French forces are surrounded and forced to capitulate on May 29th 1940. The rest of the French army is picked off during June (RAF and RN losses are slightly less owing to not having to go to Dunkirk to rescue soldiers but are still considerable).

With the French out of the war by June 21st, Britain is alone and weak. Yes, the RAF and RN are still a potent fighting force but the Army is in a desperate state and no one in Whitehall is under any illusion as to what would happen IF the Germans were able to put a force ashore. The Russians are tied to Germanym the Americans are still far from enthausiastic and as much concerned about the threat from Japan so diplomatically and strategically, the picture looks very black while the ending of cross-Channel trade means towns like Dover and Folkestone are facing economic ruin.

There is a broad split in public and political opinion - on one hand, Churchill and his like who favour continued resistance at any cost and a growing minority (including the families of those soldiers lost in France and Belgium) who favour an accommodation. The reports of survivors who speak of civilian carnage from the air filter into the general population amidst a growing realisation that such carnage would be visited on Britain should the Germans invade and this is a country unused to war on its home soil.

In OTL, the "miracle" of Dunkirk and the stirring words of Churchill kept the nation going but with the former an undisguised debacle, the latter may not be enough so how does this play out ?

In lieu of direct negotiations with Hitler, there are various back channels and intermediaries such as the Vatican and Sweden, These contacts, arranged through Rab Butler and Bastaniani, bring news of Hitler's intentions which are surprisingly generous. In effect, Britain has to recognise German hegemony on the Continent in exhange for which British soil will not be occupied (German troops would be withdrawn from the Channel Islands) and the British Empire will be maintained (no German land-grab).

When news of this reaches the Cabinet, Churchill is appalled and accuses Halifax and Butler of "treason" but at the famous Cabinet of July 23rd 1940, Churchill finds himself isolated as his colleagues indicate their support for the deal with Germany and Italy. Churchill threatens to resign and call an election but Halifax stands firm and in his famous outburst said "Winston, will you stop at nothing to see your ego satisfied ? Must the destruction of all we hold dear be the price we must pay ?"

Churchill backs down - the deal is swiftly concluded and Halifax and Butler lead the British delegation to Brussels where Hitler and Ribbentrop are waiting and on August 2nd 1940, the Treaty of Brussels ends the 11-Month War as it becomes generally known. Britain is forced to acquiesce to German economic and military supremacy on the Continent.

Initial public reaction is cautious but is soon swayed by the rapid repatriation of British POWs and the withdrawal of German troops from the Channel Islands.

Churchill resigns as Prime Minister saying the National Government is no longer necessary and Halifax wins the subsequent General Election albeit with a tiny majority.

Deep within the Treaty of Brussels and known only to a very few are the secret clauses. One is a British commitment to strict neutrality in any future conflict between Germany and the USSR while the other (counter-signed by Japan) states that in exhange for a Japanese commitment not to attack any British possessions in Asia and the Pacific, Britain must remain neutral in any future conflict between Japan and the USA.
Top