British lose Operation Crusader

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Crusader#cite_ref-69
The Afrika Korps was down to 40 tanks ready to be committed and Rommel ordered the relief of the frontier garrisons.[51] On 24 November the Afrika Korps and Ariete division headed for Sidi Omar, causing chaos and scattering the mainly rear echelon support units in their path, splitting XXX Corps and almost cutting off XIII Corps. Rommel hoped to relieve the siege of Bardia and pose a large enough threat to the British rear echelon to complete the defeat of Operation Crusader.[note 17] On 25 November, 15th Panzer set off north-east for Sidi Azeiz and found the area empty and were constantly attacked by the Desert Air Force. South of the border the 5th Panzer Regiment of the 21st Panzer attacked the 7th Indian Brigade at Sidi Omar and were repulsed by the 1st Field Regt RA, firing over open sights at a range of 500 metres (547 yd); a second attack left the 5th Panzer Regiment with few operational tanks.[53] The rest of 21st Panzer had headed north east, south of the border, to Halfaya.

17) His decision was based on the fact that the 7th Armoured Division had been defeated, but he ignored intelligence reports of British supply dumps lying on his path on the border and this was to cost him the battle. As Oberstleutnant Fritz Bayerlein, the chief of staff of the Afrika Korps said after the war, "If we had known about those dumps we could have won the battle."[52]
Having read this and other accounts by Brits of Crusader it would seem that there were two enormous supply dumps moved up on the 18th of November to support the British offensive and had Rommel heeded reports and seized them they could have cut the British off of supply and pretty much won the operation in one fell swoop.

So what if that happened and Operation Crusader was crushed by having lost its supply dumps and much of the forces used were captured, while Toburk remained besieged? IOTL Crusader badly wore down the Axis forces and pushed them back eventually to El Agheila southwest of Benghazi. Here Rommel would be maintained on the Egyptian border into 1942 having gained massive supplies from the British and retained the battlefield, thus having gained all the damaged/wrecked AFVs for both sides and kept Tobruk from being relieved. This would be huge, as the British lost over 800 AFVs, but were able to repair all but 276 due to keeping the battlefield. Meanwhile the 340 Axis AFV losses were writeoffs due to being left behind, leaving Rommel with only 40 'runners' by December. The Axis also lost some 300 aircraft left behind in various states of repair. Also some 12,000 men were lost in border garrisons on the Libyan-Egyptian border that had to be left behind when Rommel retreated and Rommel's losses in manpower would probably be lower due to an early victory in late November/early December.

What are the political ramifications of that? Would the British drop Auchinleck as they did Wavell after the failure of Battleaxe, or would Cunningham go instead? Militarily what would it mean for the British come 1942? Would Toburk be successfully stormed and then Rommel having a chance to successfully invade Egypt in early 1942 rather than having to fight the Battle of Gazala as per OTL? The captured British supplies and the early 1942 suppression of Malta would make Spring 1942 a much more well supplied chance to invade Egypt and having mauled the 8th army in November/December they'd be quite vulnerable to attack. Thoughts?
 
Normally I would say that it puts the Axis Army that bit closer to Egypt, but people like MattII would say that the logistical situation in Libya means they could not take advantage of it.

So therefore Auchinlek is transferred back to India earlier and Cunningham sacked outright. They are replaced by Alexander and Montgomery respectively earlier.

Due to many of the expected reinforcements being redirected to the Far East they persuade Churchill to allow them to evacuate Tobruk by sea and build up a defensive position at El Alamein which they hold until launching an offensive in October 1942. Malta still holds out despite the supply route via Alexandria being closed for the first half of 1942.

A decisive Axis defeat of Operation Crusader doesn't make Hitler pour more resources into Libya, instead he thinks Rommel can hold it with what he already has. Therefore Luftflotte 2 and Fligerkorps II remain on the Eastern Front and the supplies that went into rebuilding the Afrika Korps IOTL are used to strengthen the panzer divisions allocated to the Caucasus Offensive.
 

Deleted member 1487

Normally I would say that it puts the Axis Army that bit closer to Egypt, but people like MattII would say that the logistical situation in Libya means they could not take advantage of it.

So therefore Auchinlek is transferred back to India earlier and Cunningham sacked outright. They are replaced by Alexander and Montgomery respectively earlier.

Due to many of the expected reinforcements being redirected to the Far East they persuade Churchill to allow them to evacuate Tobruk by sea and build up a defensive position at El Alamein which they hold until launching an offensive in October 1942. Malta still holds out despite the supply route via Alexandria being closed for the first half of 1942.

A decisive Axis defeat of Operation Crusader doesn't make Hitler pour more resources into Libya, instead he thinks Rommel can hold it with what he already has. Therefore Luftflotte 2 and Fligerkorps II remain on the Eastern Front and the supplies that went into rebuilding the Afrika Korps IOTL are used to strengthen the panzer divisions allocated to the Caucasus Offensive.

Ritchie and Gott came before Monty. At this point Monty is perhaps too junior for the role and not in place like Gott or Ritchie were. Gott would be a disaster going forward too, assuming he survives to take command and Ritchie wasn't a great option either. Normally I'd agree on the logistics issue, but the dumps that would be captured had enormous resources that from the Libyan border would be enough to carry the Afrika Korps to Alexandria at least even if Tobruk remained besieged. Assuming that the attacking British corps are wiped out in the offensive and Rommel has a couple months to recover, he'd be able to go on the offensive if he were willing to leave Torbruk besieged and move into Egypt to render it strategically irrelevant, while banking on capturing Alexandria and British supplies on the way. If the defeat is total during Crusader, that's over 100k British troops gone and with it the 8th army. Tobruk might well be doomed if its not evacuated then.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berna..._of_Alamein#Retreat_to_Dunkirk_and_evacuation
Monty was pretty junior for an army command by early 1942. IOTL it took until Gott was killed in August 1942 (Ritchie was junior and dropped after the failure in the face of Rommel in early 1942) for Monty to be promoted up to army command rank, in fact he had just assumed command of the 1st Army when he was transferred.

Evacuating Tobruk actually gives Rommel a huge boost in his invasion of Egypt, as it frees up forces besieging it and opens up a port to him eventually when it can be repaired. But then the forces evacuated wouldn't be combat operational for a bit after rebasing. In the meantime though with the defeat of Crusader and the capture of a lot of equipment and supplies before it can evacuate Torbruk might well be stormed by the Axis and taken, eliminating that force from the British OOB. With it would come more captured supplies and a less damaged port compared to the British evacuating and sabotaging it on the way out.

Luftflotte 2 remaining in the East in November would actually be a huge boon for AG-Center and would probably blunt at lot of the Soviet advance, as their departure left AG-Center with 3 operational aircraft on December 8th and it wasn't until Fliegerkorps VIII could do repairs over the month that it was able to get enough operational aircraft in January to blunt the Soviet offensive.

Clearly there are a few different ways this could go, but I think its potentially likely that Hitler could be persuaded to invest replacements to get Rommel ready to invade Egypt and Mussolini to provide reinforcements to make that an option. Perhaps instead of sending some mobile divisions to Russia under the Italian 8th army those motorized divisions end up with Rommel to invade Egypt in early 1942 along with more Italian aircraft?

Politically what are the ramifications of the 8th army being lost by the end of 1941? Same with Tobruk?
 
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IOTL the start of the Pacific War led Churchill to divert reinforcements that were in transit to the Middle East to Singapore and Burma. This included a whole infantry division that arrived in Singapore just in time to be captured when Percival surrendered.

OTOH if Crusader had been a crushing defeat for the 8th Army, Churchill might have put everything he had into the defence of Egypt leaving Singapore and Burma to their fates.
 

Deleted member 1487

IOTL the start of the Pacific War led Churchill to divert reinforcements that were in transit to the Middle East to Singapore and Burma. This included a whole infantry division that arrived in Singapore just in time to be captured when Percival surrendered.

OTOH if Crusader had been a crushing defeat for the 8th Army, Churchill might have put everything he had into the defence of Egypt leaving Singapore and Burma to their fates.

That makes sense. But would Churchill survive having lost the 8th army, Tobruk, Singapore, and Burma, while then having Egypt effectively standing by to be lost? Having only 1-2 divisions at El Alamein isn't going to stop the Axis forces and may well just prompt the already unhappy Egyptians to revolt:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdeen_Palace_Incident_of_1942
 
Politically what are the ramifications of the 8th army being lost by the end of 1941? Same with Tobruk?

I don't know much about internal British politics during the war. But loosing the 8th Army, Tobruk and Singapore in quick succession probably means a censure motion against Churchill in March 1942 and probably his downfall. I don't know enough to speculate on who might replace him.

Do the Axis experts have any ideas on how Hitler and Mussolini would react to Churchill being replaced in March 1942? Would they regard it as good or bad for them? Would it alter what passed for their strategies?
 

Deleted member 1487

I don't know much about internal British politics during the war. But loosing the 8th Army, Tobruk and Singapore in quick succession probably means a censure motion against Churchill in March 1942 and probably his downfall. I don't know enough to speculate on who might replace him.

Do the Axis experts have any ideas on how Hitler and Mussolini would react to Churchill being replaced in March 1942? Would they regard it as good or bad for them? Would it alter what passed for their strategies?

IOTL he had a vote of no confidence against him after the battle of Gazala and the loss of Tobruk in 1942, which he survived, but perhaps ITTL it would be a 'perfect storm' of failure to get him out. IIRC Anthony Eden would be next in line with the Tories:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Eden#World_War_II

He had been Secretary of War and later head of the Foreign Ministry and 2nd most powerful man after Churchill in the Tory Party.

The Axis would love to have Churchill gone, Hitler thought he was the entire reason for the British continuing on. If he were gone by March 1942 the British would stay in the war due to US entry, but be pretty badly maimed in terms of their ability to conduct operations. Without the 8th army, not sure whether it was that plausible that the entire army would be lost without their supplies, Egypt would pretty much fall in early 1942 as at that point an Axis drive into Egypt would only face a couple divisions and probably be aided by an Egyptian military uprising against the British when Alexandria fell. That definitely means Malta falls and perhaps even Cyprus. I doubt it would mean a Middle East campaign due to the practical limits of Axis logistics, but it would force the Allies to invest heavy resources to defend the Middle East against the Axis and an Arab uprising and keep Turkey out of the war.

The thing then is that it frees up large resources for the Eastern Front in 1942 and probably forces Turkey to allow Axis shipping to use the Straits. I'm not sure then if Operation Torch would even be viable come October due to Middle East commitments and the need to put forces into East Africa just in case. I wonder if the Afrika Korps might even be disbanded and used elsewhere, but I kind of doubt it given Hitler's hope for a Middle Eastern campaign. With Malta out of the way and the British effectively swept from the Mediterranean then Axis shipping is effectively free to do as it wishes there and German airpower is freed up from Malta and Greek/Crete duty for use in the East. That would effectively be hundreds of aircraft as that was Luftflotte 2 plus other units; later that would end up saving some 2400 Axis aircraft from being lost in Tunisia assuming Torch doesn't happen, plus then no Operation Anton and dispersion of Axis forces in France, while also saving 5th Panzer army for use in Russia if needed in Winter 1942.
 
IOTL he had a vote of no confidence against him after the battle of Gazala and the loss of Tobruk in 1942, which he survived, but perhaps ITTL it would be a 'perfect storm' of failure to get him out. IIRC Anthony Eden would be next in line with the Tories:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Eden#World_War_II

He had been Secretary of War and later head of the Foreign Ministry and 2nd most powerful man after Churchill in the Tory Party.

The Axis would love to have Churchill gone, Hitler thought he was the entire reason for the British continuing on. If he were gone by March 1942 the British would stay in the war due to US entry, but be pretty badly maimed in terms of their ability to conduct operations. Without the 8th army, not sure whether it was that plausible that the entire army would be lost without their supplies, Egypt would pretty much fall in early 1942 as at that point an Axis drive into Egypt would only face a couple divisions and probably be aided by an Egyptian military uprising against the British when Alexandria fell. That definitely means Malta falls and perhaps even Cyprus. I doubt it would mean a Middle East campaign due to the practical limits of Axis logistics, but it would force the Allies to invest heavy resources to defend the Middle East against the Axis and an Arab uprising and keep Turkey out of the war.

The thing then is that it frees up large resources for the Eastern Front in 1942 and probably forces Turkey to allow Axis shipping to use the Straits. I'm not sure then if Operation Torch would even be viable come October due to Middle East commitments and the need to put forces into East Africa just in case. I wonder if the Afrika Korps might even be disbanded and used elsewhere, but I kind of doubt it given Hitler's hope for a Middle Eastern campaign. With Malta out of the way and the British effectively swept from the Mediterranean then Axis shipping is effectively free to do as it wishes there and German airpower is freed up from Malta and Greek/Crete duty for use in the East. That would effectively be hundreds of aircraft as that was Luftflotte 2 plus other units; later that would end up saving some 2400 Axis aircraft from being lost in Tunisia assuming Torch doesn't happen, plus then no Operation Anton and dispersion of Axis forces in France, while also saving 5th Panzer army for use in Russia if needed in Winter 1942.

If the uprising in Egypt had happened this might have a domino effect in the Arab world and Iran. I don't know much about the internal situation in India, but it might even spread there.

If the Axis is able to rush into Egypt at the end of 1941 in spite of the logistical difficulties I think they could take the Levant too. Holding Syria and Palestine should not be so difficult once they have got the ports operational.

The British did form a GHQ 9th and 10th Armies for the defence of the Levant and Persia-Iraq (IIRC if the Germans were able to invade via Turkey or the Caucasus). However, they didn't have many divisions allocated.

If Crusader was a decisive defeat of the 8th Army the Germans and Italians might be able to get as far as Iraq and Kuwait despite the logistical difficulties because there would be few British Empire troops in their way. This would be aided considerably if the Iraqis, Syrians and Palestinians decided to revolt.
 
If the uprising in Egypt had happened this might have a domino effect in the Arab world and Iran. I don't know much about the internal situation in India, but it might even spread there.

If the Axis is able to rush into Egypt at the end of 1941 in spite of the logistical difficulties I think they could take the Levant too. Holding Syria and Palestine should not be so difficult once they have got the ports operational.

The British did form a GHQ 9th and 10th Armies for the defence of the Levant and Persia-Iraq (IIRC if the Germans were able to invade via Turkey or the Caucasus). However, they didn't have many divisions allocated.

If Crusader was a decisive defeat of the 8th Army the Germans and Italians might be able to get as far as Iraq and Kuwait despite the logistical difficulties because there would be few British Empire troops in their way. This would be aided considerably if the Iraqis, Syrians and Palestinians decided to revolt.

If the revolts were indeed to spread to India , butterflies would probably appear in the Pacific and possibly the Wallies' operations in Europe.
 
IIRC Crusader was the first battle using the Allied way of war, overwhelming numbers of tanks, planes and other war materiel. Personally I doubt that a quick master stroke could defeat an enemy that could hunker down in place with undefeated forces across Axis supply lines.
 

Deleted member 1487

IIRC Crusader was the first battle using the Allied way of war, overwhelming numbers of tanks, planes and other war materiel. Personally I doubt that a quick master stroke could defeat an enemy that could hunker down in place with undefeated forces across Axis supply lines.

They certainly outnumbered the Axis in terms of equipment, but they roughly equal in manpower. The problem is that tanks and aircraft are useless without supplies, so losing their supply dumps would effectively knock them out in a single blow.
 
I'm not sure then if Operation Torch would even be viable come October due to Middle East commitments and the need to put forces into East Africa just in case. I wonder if the Afrika Korps might even be disbanded and used elsewhere, but I kind of doubt it given Hitler's hope for a Middle Eastern campaign. With Malta out of the way and the British effectively swept from the Mediterranean then Axis shipping is effectively free to do as it wishes there and German airpower is freed up from Malta and Greek/Crete duty for use in the East. That would effectively be hundreds of aircraft as that was Luftflotte 2 plus other units; later that would end up saving some 2400 Axis aircraft from being lost in Tunisia assuming Torch doesn't happen, plus then no Operation Anton and dispersion of Axis forces in France, while also saving 5th Panzer army for use in Russia if needed in Winter 1942.

Is that enough to save the sixth army? If so, does this force the Wallies into Overlord 43 to save Russia?
 
I doubt that saving the sixth army alone would be enough make Russia's situation so desperate that the Wallies would feel compelled to launch a 1943 invasion.

You think so? It means the back of the German army has not been broken and the US will have been in the war for 16 months without fighting the Germans on land. A slow fight across North Africa isn't going to make Russia happy. The US can go for Torch, and the British then can apply pressure back onto Egypt, but then it is a slow slog pushing the Axis out of Africa...we are talking about by mid 44.

I don't think Russia wants to wait until 1945 to see a major front open in Europe. In fact, they probably cannot afford to.

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Just so it does not seem I am German wanking, I think if 6th army is saved in 42-43, the result is Hitler way under-estimates the Russians and allows either AGC to get cut off at Rhzev (instead of withdrawing) or all of AGS to get cut off at Rostov. Russian operational ability and reserves by my 43 was world beating and the POD only increases German hubris and short term success to the point where they likely completely underestimate the Russians.

The Germans would need to be smart to press their advantages with these PODs. It can seriously backfire on them.
 
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You think so? It means the back of the German army has been broken and the US will have been in the war for 16 months without fighting the Germans on land. A slow fight across North Africa isn't going to make Russia happy. The US can go for Torch, and the British then can apply pressure back onto Egypt, but then it is a slow slog pushing the Axis out of Africa...we are talking about by mid 44.

I don't think Russia wants to wait until 1945 to see a major front open in Africa. In fact, they probably cannot afford to.

Oh, I see, are you saying that the Wallies might feel compelled ITTL out of a fear of a separate German-Soviet peace? That hadn't occurred to me to be honest.

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Just so it does not seem I am German wanking, I think if 6th army is saved in 42-43, the result is Hitler way under-estimates the Russians and allows either AGC to get cut off at Rhzev (instead of withdrawing) or all of AGS to get cut off at Rostov. Russian operational ability and reserves by my 43 was world beating and the POD only increases German hubris and short term success to the point where they likely completely underestimate the Russians.

The Germans would need to be smart to press their advantages with these PODs. It can seriously backfire on them.

Agreed, Hitler's actions are always a wild card in these scenarios.
 
If Rommel's Army had occupied Egypt and was advancing into Palestine by March 1942 would that influence what the Japanese did in 1942?

Might they decide on a more expansive Indian Ocean raid. IOTL it was to cover the invasion of Burma. However, might they decide finish off the British Eastern Fleet (which ITTL would be reinforced by the ships of the evacuated Mediterranean Fleet).

Once this is accomplished they leave a force of cruisers backed up by the Ryujo in the Indian Ocean instead of the attempt to take Port Moresby that led to the Coral Sea. Its primary purpose was to cut the British supply route to India and Australia. However, if successful the supply routes to the Middle East and Russia via Persia would also have been cut.

Midway would go ahead as planned.
 
Oh, I see, are you saying that the Wallies might feel compelled ITTL out of a fear of a separate German-Soviet peace? That hadn't occurred to me to be honest.

Yes, my typos obscured my contention. I don't live in a Stalin fantasy land where he would have cowed to Hitler, but he obviously used the idea of a separate peace in order to force the Allies' hand in terms of material support and such. If the Wallies are dogging it, his hand might be forced and he will go for a temporary peace and let the Allies wear the Germans until he feels he can get back in.

Agreed, Hitler's actions are always a wild card in these scenarios.

Yes. I can easily forsee Hitler declaring that the USSR is "this close" to completely capitulating, and wanting a quick victory so he can fortify France. He attacks again in the south for oil come May, only to find out the USSR rips through German lines in the rear hitting Rostov, leading to the complete destruction of AGS. Hitler refuses to withdraw from Rhzev in order to show German resolve and two months later, 10 divisions of AGC are surrounded and annhilated.

Then come winter 44, AGN collapses. War over by Autumn 44, Russia at the Rhine.
 
Yes, my typos obscured my contention. I don't live in a Stalin fantasy land where he would have cowed to Hitler, but he obviously used the idea of a separate peace in order to force the Allies' hand in terms of material support and such. If the Wallies are dogging it, his hand might be forced and he will go for a temporary peace and let the Allies wear the Germans until he feels he can get back in.

Hm, in this situation the Wallies might decide to concentrate on Japan and wait for the A-Bomb before moving against Germany in a big way, which of course would effect Soviet calculations given that USSR intelligence was keeping a close watch on the Manhattan Project.

Yes. I can easily forsee Hitler declaring that the USSR is "this close" to completely capitulating, and wanting a quick victory so he can fortify France. He attacks again in the south for oil come May, only to find out the USSR rips through German lines in the rear hitting Rostov, leading to the complete destruction of AGS. Hitler refuses to withdraw from Rhzev in order to show German resolve and two months later, 10 divisions of AGC are surrounded and annhilated.

Then come winter 44, AGN collapses. War over by Autumn 44, Russia at the Rhine.

Kind of like a WW2 version of Germany's 1918 spring offensive.
 
Hm, in this situation the Wallies might decide to concentrate on Japan and wait for the A-Bomb before moving against Germany in a big way, which of course would effect Soviet calculations given that USSR intelligence was keeping a close watch on the Manhattan Project.

I'm not sure about that because in 43 nuclear weapons are not a given.

Kind of like a WW2 version of Germany's 1918 spring offensive.

Except the 1918 offensive was a gambit on some level made sense, while Hitlerian "no retreat, onward to victory" was a matter of a strongman's personality without any bearing in rationality.
 
I'm not sure about that because in 43 nuclear weapons are not a given.

I'm not either, just raising the possibility.

Except the 1918 offensive was a gambit on some level made sense, while Hitlerian "no retreat, onward to victory" was a matter of a strongman's personality without any bearing in rationality.

I agree, what he should be doing is digging in and trying for a negotiated peace ASAP.
 
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