What are some possible effects if it fails?
How bout NA?No British expedition to Greece and maybe they write off Malta as well. Just spit balling but those are two that come to mind.
I can see Greece being written off but not Malta, but it depends on how badly the Mediterranean Fleet is hurt in the attempt.No British expedition to Greece and maybe they write off Malta as well. Just spit balling but those are two that come to mind.
I can see Greece being written off but not Malta, but it depends on how badly the Mediterranean Fleet is hurt in the attempt.
AIUI, if Western Desert Force had better logistics, and hadn't been gutted for Greece, they could've pushed on to Tripoli IOTL
I had this ready before I saw that @Catspoke had ninja'd me.What forces did Italy have in and around Tripoli at this time?
General Rommel reached Tripoli on 12th February, two days ahead of the first flight of his combat troops. He found in Tripolitania the Italian Ariete Division, nominally an armoured division but very incomplete, and four infantry divisions mostly without any artillery. The Commander-in-Chief, General Gariboldi, successor to Marshal Graziani, had ordered a stand to be made at Sirte, and the Ariete, Pavia, and Bologna Divisions were moving there from Tripoli, to be followed by the Brescia and Savona Divisions as soon as transport could be made available. It was hoped that the British would not continue their advance before these moves were completed, and that the French in Tunisia would remain quiet.
Except the logistic reach from Alexandria is limited. Starting another front from a port closer to the action would be needed to reach Tripoli anyway.Yeah, I don't know about this.
If you want a better outcome in NA in this timeframe, then just stay out of Greece, continue Operation Compass to the logical conclusion, and all of a sudden you control North Africa 2 years early.
Ok, but did 50 Division have sufficient forced entry/amphibious capability?
I understand that Wavell may not have been able to immediately occupy all of NA, but without ripping away much of his combat power he could certainly have largely destroyed the 5th and 10th Armies.
We have their OTL performance VS Op. Excess to compare against, as I outlined before. While they could and did bloody the British fleet, they had neither the numbers, nor the amount of bombs required, to be anything more than a glorified nuisance(has any sea invasion been pulled off in the face of superior air??)