British land at Tripoli in January/February '41

[Magnum]

OTL, plans were in place to send the 50th Division from Britain to the Mediterranean. However, Wavell argued that "while he would be grateful for their arrival", he more urgently needed replenishments for existing formations, particularly more technical-oriented sub-units such as signals troops, mechanics etc., and Churchill relented. The 50th, after more delays, finally arrived in theater only as late as June '41.

ITTL though, Churchill decides to scrap both options, and go for a bolder third one - send the 50th, escorted by a powerful Royal Navy surface fleet, which would rendezvous with the bulk of the Mediterranean fleet near Malta, and land it at Tripoli, effectively cutting off essentially the only remaining Italian supply hub. Without Tripoli, the Italian merchant marine would be unable to supply the 5th (and soon to be destroyed 10th) armies; without fuel, there'd be no way to bring in water to the troops; without water, people usually die of thirst within a few days.

So, they set sail sometime in late December/January, defeat the paltry Italian attempt to block the fleet (who was pretty timid during this period, so soon after the disaster that befell upon them at Taranto), land at Tripoli and take the port, ALL BEFORE THE FIRST ELEMENTS OF THE AFRIKA KORPS ARRIVE.

Without a port to supply the troops from, Hitler likely cancels the deployment of the "Sperrverband" (blocking detachment), leaving the Italians to fend for themselves.

Is this essentially game over for Mussolini in Libya?

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

Churchill may think this is a brilliant idea, but I doubt if anyone else in Britain will. The Briitish have no real amphibious capacity at this time. An improvised amphibious landing, even against weak opposition, would be very risky.That's what Gallipoli was, and that was Churchill's idea too.

Having said that: if Churchill could get the military and naval commanders to do it, and if it succeeded, then the North Africa campaign is over right then.

 

[GauchoBadger]

This could prevent the fall of Crete to the Axis, i believe. Would put Italy into a very tough pickle.

 

[Magnum]

Churchill may think this is a brilliant idea, but I doubt if anyone else in Britain will. The Briitish have no real amphibious capacity at this time. An improvised amphibious landing, even against weak opposition, would be very risky.That's what Gallipoli was, and that was Churchill's idea too.

Having said that: if Churchill could get the military and naval commanders to do it, and if it succeeded, then the North Africa campaign is over right then.

What would be the main factor that could lead to failure in your view? The local garrison?

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

An opposed landing followed by urban fighting with an improvised amphibious force would be an incredibly risky proposition. If the Italian's had any indication it was going to happen and even minimal time to prepare then it's got disaster written all over it. If it is successful then you've got an isolated position hundreds of miles behind enemy lines. If the remaining Italian forces facing the Western Desert Force don't collapse then sooner or later the Tripoli force would have to surrender. Also it's very likely that Vichy forces in Tunisia will be forced to allow Axis forces to land there, if only to prevent French North Africa joining the Free French.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Churchill may think this is a brilliant idea, but I doubt if anyone else in Britain will. The Briitish have no real amphibious capacity at this time. An improvised amphibious landing, even against weak opposition, would be very risky.That's what Gallipoli was, and that was Churchill's idea too.

Having said that: if Churchill could get the military and naval commanders to do it, and if it succeeded, then the North Africa campaign is over right then.

What would be the main factor that could lead to failure in your view? The local garrison?

The main factor that could lead to failure in my view is X. Fliegerkorps. The time of the proposed landing at Tripoli is also the time that the Luftwaffe gave the Mediterranean Fleet a bloody nose of Malta.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

By the time of the Battle of Crete the Mediterranean Fleet had enough amphibious shipping to land a brigade. I don't know if they were there at the time of the OP or could have been sent there if the decision to attack Tripoli was made early enough.

These were the 3 Glenn class cargo-passenger liners that had been converted into infantry landing ships (LSI). They were there for either a proposed landing in the Dodecanese Islands or the Italian islands in the central Mediterranean. I cant remember which.

 

[Killer in]

So in theory it's possible but it would require the bulk of Force H and the Med fleet plus every available aircraft to cover the landing ?

 

[Magnum]

So in theory it's possible but it would require the bulk of Force H and the Med fleet plus every available aircraft to cover the landing ?

I don't think it would require EVERY AVAILABLE AIRCRAFT. If this operation takes places instead of the OTL Op. Excess, we can take a look at that for a reasonable comparison.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Excess

The Germans managed to effectively destroy 1 cruiser and 1 destroyer, and damaged 1 carrier and another cruiser, all the while failing to actually stop the British convoys from reaching their destination (and, to top it off, had one of the two remaining Italian battleships damaged by British bombers, forcing the other one to retreat!). If the plan is to land at Tripoli, then that probably means an even bigger British surface fleet, and more AA.

Another couple of reasons why I say they wouldn't be that effective are that:

1. Once the British fleet reaches Tripoli, they would be well outside Stuka range.

On 12 January 1941, it had 80 Ju 88A-4 bombers of LG 1 and 12 Ju 88D-5 reconnaissance planes at Catania, 80 Ju 87R-1 ("Stuka") dive-bombers of StG 1 and StG 2 at Trapani, 27 He 111H-6 torpedo bombers of KG 26 at Comiso and 34 Bf 110C-4 fighters of ZG 26 at Palermo.[References 2]

(to this, add the Italian Stuka's and Macchi's)

Effectively, the Axis bomber forces are cut in half, with their most effective aircraft out of action

2. The Axis had effectively shot its load with the air attacks on January 10th. Fliegerkorps X had only recently arrived in Sicilly, and apparently they hadn't had time to build up their munition stock:

What Maltese called the Illustrious Blitz began when bomb stocks depleted during the attacks of 10 and 11 January were replenished and the Axis made a maximum effort to destroy Illustrious before she could be repaired. Illustrious and Essex were hit during an air raid on 16 January.

(January 11th was only a raid by 12 Stukas, probably carrying the last remaining bombs)

That's almost a whole week of activity the British would enjoy in front of Tripoli without fear of air attacks.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Effectively the Tripoli operation would replace the Malta convoys as if Tripoli is taken the need for Malta as a base is reduced. As Magnum suggests the effectiveness of the Luftwaffe would be much reduced against a North African operation.

It would (if successful) probably trigger a complete violation of Vichy French neutrality as the Afrika Korps would try and land in Tunisia. That may butterfly the need for Torch (or Torch may be against very dispersed German and Italian opposition, robbing the Afrika Korps of it offensive striking power and reducing it to a counter attack force.)

 

[Magnum]

It would (if successful) probably trigger a complete violation of Vichy French neutrality as the Afrika Korps would try and land in Tunisia. That may butterfly the need for Torch (or Torch may be against very dispersed German and Italian opposition, robbing the Afrika Korps of it offensive striking power and reducing it to a counter attack force.)

The Axis landing in Tunisia succeeded because the local French commander pulled back and let them land in peace.

However, assuming it does succeed, there are a number of drawbacks for the Axis:

1. it's probably too late to salvage the situation in Libya
2. the rationale of blocking an Allied offensive into the area is lacking; Vichy still appeared more than able to defend its holdings at this point
3. the rationale for rescuing a retreating German force is lacking; there is no Panzerarmee Afrika desperately retreating west ITTL
4. an invasion of Tunisia would prompt all Vichy colonies to switch to the British, something Hitler definitely did not want

 

[Scott Washburn]

The landing would not be the big problem. Reinforcing and supplying the landing force would be the big problem. The Germans and Italians would concentrate their air and sea power to isolate the British troops in Tripoli and they might well succeed. The British had enough trouble just keeping Malta supplied. This would be much more difficult.

 

[Zheng He]

The landing would not be the big problem. Reinforcing and supplying the landing force would be the big problem. The Germans and Italians would concentrate their air and sea power to isolate the British troops in Tripoli and they might well succeed. The British had enough trouble just keeping Malta supplied. This would be much more difficult.

Is keeping Tripoli supplied more difficult? It's further from Axis bases in Sicily on and on the Italian mainland. Their fighters won't have the range to fly escorted missions so bombing raids and it is well beyond Stuka range as others have pointed out.

 

[Zheng He]

Interestingly enough this could provoke something of a panic reaction on Hitler's part. Landing British forces near Tripoli in January 1941 takes place while OPERATION COMPASS is well underway and the British are busy smacking the Italians around in Cyrenaica, the raid on Taranto just happened two months ago, and the Italian invasion of Greece is by now clearly a miserable failure.

If the British can capture Tripoli in January 1941, the remaining Italian forces in Libya are hosed. They have been run out of Cyrenaica and their main rear area base just fell. All the guys in Tripoli now have to do is dig in and sit tight and wait for Wavell's forces to come to them (this of course means the British need to really make that effort) while you will probably have some % of the remaining Italian forces in Libya surrendering because they figure that staying in a British POW camp beats dying of thirst in the desert.

I do not see Hitler simply wringing his hands and telling Mussolini that he has made his bed and now he has to sleep in it. I very much see Hitler trying to get forces (probably larger than what was originally sent to Libya OTL) into Tunisia to try and at least contain a situation that is unravelling. I could also see Hitler demanding faster action in Greece leading to pressure on Yugoslavia to join the Axis (OTL happened late March) maybe leading to the coup taking place earlier.

An awful lot of butterflies here if the British can manage to pull it off.

 

[Scott Washburn]

I wonder if with Tripoli gone, the Germans would try to send forces to Africa via Tunis and Tunisia as they did after the Torch landings? The French probably wouldn't oppose them any more than they did in 1942.

 

[Zheng He]

I wonder if with Tripoli gone, the Germans would try to send forces to Africa via Tunis and Tunisia as they did after the Torch landings? The French probably wouldn't oppose them any more than they did in 1942.

Initially although at some point maybe further west as well, from what I understand Tunis was a pretty bare bones port at the time. I don't see the French liking it but I don't see them opposing it too much either. This is only six months after CATAPULT and four months after MENACE so I imagine anti-British sentiment in the French North African colonies was still pretty high. Granted even Tunis is a long way from Tripoli over some pretty rough terrain so I can't see an Axis force in French North Africa being able to dislodge the British if they can establish themselves in Libya (unless they do something stupid) but it can prevent the British from "owning" the North African coast.

 

[Zheng He]

What forces did Italy have in and around Tripoli at this time?

 

[King Augeas]

How far from Tripoli are the local Axis airbases? The British can't afford to leave those in Axis hands.

 

[Zheng He]

How far from Tripoli are the local Axis airbases? The British can't afford to leave those in Axis hands.

Or depending on how close to the coast those are, do you make those the main target of the initial landing - you know secure the airbases type of thing.

 

[LegionoftheUnitedStates]

High risk, high reward. If they pull it off it is a huge win. Capture a large Italian Army, end the threat to the Suez Canal, possibly have enough troops to help the Greeks or at least hold Crete and the other islands.

But the devil is in the details about when and where they can land. Blow it and you lose a division and defending the canal becomes harder.

I wish I had a North Africa game that went that far West, so I could test it out. My copy of The Gamer's Afrika doesn't go that far.