British forces in axis Cold War

[Gillan1220]

Ooh, thanks for that! I'll have to check it out.

By the 1990s/2000s (my rough prediction for when things come to a head) the Allied powers that Nazi Germany would be facing off against when they decide it's time for the Endsieg would certainly be as prepared as one can be for that eventuality. Nearly all of them would likely be more militarized than OTL, in both conventional weapons and WMDs, and with a large and heavily militarized presence in space (no bilateral arms agreements or Outer Space Treaty in this world; Germany had shown with its behaviour that it can't be trusted to uphold anything). They've likely gone all-in on the SDI idea. Britain and Ireland, being right on the frontline, probably have extensive systems of fallout shelters and an Iron Dome-like antimissile system (looking like a combination of Israel and Switzerland).

But even so, there's only so much you can do to prepare for an all-out war with WMDs, and none of it can guarantee survival or is immune to being countered. Nazi Germany certainly can't win a war they start at this time (even if they can easily make themselves believe they can), but both sides can certainly lose.

All these expensive projects are going to be their economic downfall. Keep in mind in OTL, Germany's obsession with wonder weapons took incredible resources that could have been better used in the Eastern Front. Wonder weapons too are not enough to stem the tide of the war.

In this Axis Cold War, the Reich would have been a big pariah anyway (just like a bigger North Korea, even the USSR wasn't a pariah despite its authoritarian faults) with the whole Free World against them. Once this Axis Cold War turns hot, it would probably resemble a 1960s nuclear exchange where one side is hurt but the world isn't a wasteland like in most 1980s scenarios. A nuclear program would cost Germany precious resources in which it has limited access to, while the U.S. and the UK would have both the resources and the minds to create functional devices before Germany could catch up.

 

[Kaiser of Brazil]

All these expensive projects are going to be their economic downfall. Keep in mind in OTL, Germany's obsession with wonder weapons took incredible resources that could have been better used in the Eastern Front. Wonder weapons too are not enough to stem the tide of the war.

In this Axis Cold War, the Reich would have been a big pariah anyway (just like a bigger North Korea, even the USSR wasn't a pariah despite its authoritarian faults) with the whole Free World against them. Once this Axis Cold War turns hot, it would probably resemble a 1960s nuclear exchange where one side is hurt but the world isn't a wasteland like in most 1980s scenarios. A nuclear program would cost Germany precious resources in which it has limited access to, while the U.S. and the UK would have both the resources and the minds to create functional devices before Germany could catch up.

That is a fairly optimistic view, truth is that if the Wunderwaffen programs were truly so expensive, Albert Speer would have been the first one to voice concern and instead he supported it as a relatively cheap propaganda weapon. It also did net actual benefits in the rocketry camp, not only on the jet planes and the V2 program, but there was even an anti-air ballistic system in development with radio guidance named Wasserfall. Now, at least half of their projects was a waste of resources, but let's not pretend that the 40s and 50s were not filled with unpractical projects that turned out to be sinkholes by most powers and that never caused their collapse. More likely that economic woes would come due to the Autarky policies isolating Continental Europe from much of the world. You can't have the economy grow much in a closed system, especially not one where tens of millions of potential consumers and workers are killed every year.

Depending on what goes on in Hitler's mind, it's possible they can make close cooperation with the Arab world, remember that he did collaborate with several movements such as Al-Husseini and the Golden Square, with suspicions of the Pahlavis also being involved with the Nazis. South Africa, if they go for their historical route, is also a prime target for German influence with substantial reserves of mineral resources including Uranium. There are also other factors such as how the peace happened and how much of Africa is still under Paris and Rome.

 

[thaddeus]

my view it is more plausible to have a group of fascist (or authoritarian) regimes aligned with the Nazi regime to varying degrees around the Med (Italy, Vichy France, Spain, Portugal, and even Greece) resulting in a Cold War scenario than to have the Axis driven from North Africa.

 

[BurkeanLibCon]

Depending on what goes on in Hitler's mind, it's possible they can make close cooperation with the Arab world, remember that he did collaborate with several movements such as Al-Husseini and the Golden Square, with suspicions of the Pahlavis also being involved with the Nazis. South Africa, if they go for their historical route, is also a prime target for German influence with substantial reserves of mineral resources including Uranium. There are also other factors such as how the peace happened and how much of Africa is still under Paris and Rome.

If South Africa goes pro-Nazi, the British will turn Simon's Town Naval Base into Britain's Guantanamo.

In the original post, I specified that the Axis loses all of Africa. Though, I'm also interested in what would happen if the Axis maintained at least some of Africa.

I think the maximum Axis hold on Africa would be French West Africa and Italian Libya (+ Tunisia). Many scenarios have East Africa returned to Italy, I personally think this is unlikely. South Africa may or may not become a German ally.
In this scenario, TTL's NATO-equivalent would include Nigeria, Gambia, Sierra Leone and Ghana as Britain-friendly governments with a hostile French Empire to the North.

my view it is more plausible to have a group of fascist (or authoritarian) regimes aligned with the Nazi regime to varying degrees around the Med (Italy, Vichy France, Spain, Portugal, and even Greece) resulting in a Cold War scenario than to have the Axis driven from North Africa.

Part of me thinks that Franco and Salazar would join with the Allies if Hitler went after the Catholic Church, with the Pyrenees becoming this world's Inner-German border. Or perhaps they go full neutral. Or maybe a new peninsula war? Spain may become Hitler's Vietnam as well as Napoleon's.

What do you guys think?

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

If South Africa goes pro-Nazi, the British will turn Simon's Town Naval Base into Britain's Guantanamo.

Not to mention pouring serious resources into developing surrounding current or former colonies and protectorates to be able to contain the threat.

 

[Grey Wolf]

RAF and Navy, BUT Britain is going to be trying harder to hold onto its overseas possessions for longer, so the army may well become more focused on that, and more designed towards that - desert fighting in Aden, jungle warfare in Borneo, anti insurgency in Malaya and Kenya, etc

 

[BurkeanLibCon]

I can imagine the Britain would want the more essential possessions as friendly allies rather than colonies after a period. If the Vichy French go full-on crackdown on their colonies, it would look better from a political standpoint if British colonies became friendly independent states rather than fighting to keep them under colonial rule

 

[Gillan1220]

In this scenario, TTL's NATO-equivalent would include Nigeria, Gambia, Sierra Leone and Ghana as Britain-friendly governments with a hostile French Empire to the North.

TTL's NATO-equivalent would probably include all former British colonies (especially Egypt) or French colonies that did not recognize Vichy as their legitimate head-of-state.

RAF and Navy, BUT Britain is going to be trying harder to hold onto its overseas possessions for longer, so the army may well become more focused on that, and more designed towards that - desert fighting in Aden, jungle warfare in Borneo, anti insurgency in Malaya and Kenya, etc

I can imagine the Britain would want the more essential possessions as friendly allies rather than colonies after a period. If the Vichy French go full-on crackdown on their colonies, it would look better from a political standpoint if British colonies became friendly independent states rather than fighting to keep them under colonial rule

This got me wondering.

If these colonies like Malaya, Kenya, and Nigeria become independent, would these newly-independent countries seek to align with the Anglo-American bloc? Considering the Reich has some holdings in Africa?

 

[BurkeanLibCon]

If these colonies like Malaya, Kenya, and Nigeria become independent, would these newly-independent countries seek to align with the Anglo-American bloc? Considering the Reich has some holdings in Africa?

If Vichy West Africa exists then Nigeria, Gambia, Sierra Leone and Ghana will join the Anglo-American block. The Royal Navy had a base in Kilindini (Mombasa), Kenya. I suspect that would be retained as a base (likely British or American, but maybe Indian) to shadow Djibouti.

Is there any chance that Britain could still win North Africa even without Torch? By 1943 they had the Italians on the run even before the Algerian landings. It may be possible that the only Axis hold in Africa would be French colonies & South Africa (unless Tunisia goes to Mussolini as a consolation prize).

EDIT: I'm not sure about the Iberian countries. I can see how Portugal may wish for assistance in retaining its empire but both them and Franco's Spain were pro-Catholic and Hitler despised the Catholic Church and planned to destroy it. I believe Salazar also disliked Hitler.

 

[Gillan1220]

If Vichy West Africa exists then Nigeria, Gambia, Sierra Leone and Ghana will join the Anglo-American block. The Royal Navy had a base in Kilindini (Mombasa), Kenya. I suspect that would be retained as a base (likely British or American, but maybe Indian) to shadow Djibouti.

Is there any chance that Britain could still win North Africa even without Torch? By 1943 they had the Italians on the run even before the Algerian landings. It may be possible that the only Axis hold in Africa would be French colonies & South Africa (unless Tunisia goes to Mussolini as a consolation prize).

EDIT: I'm not sure about the Iberian countries. I can see how Portugal may wish for assistance in retaining its empire but both them and Franco's Spain were pro-Catholic and Hitler despised the Catholic Church and planned to destroy it. I believe Salazar also disliked Hitler.

Definitely the base Momabasa will be used by the RN and the USN for Indian Ocean patrols and to keep German influence in Africa at bay. I could see the Allies also at least seizing Somalia to deny the Germans access to the Indian Ocean, just like how the U.S. seized Greenland to prevent to be used by the Germans.

Yeah, I wonder how North Africa would be like here. Perhaps the Free French in Algeria and the British in Libya and Egypt would be Allied strongholds.

Regarding Iberia, I can see it going the AANW route. At some point, Spain will cut ties with Germany seeing it as a long-term liability and Portugal might be pressured by the Allies to join, especially since the airfields in the Azores would be useful for the USAAF/USAF, RAF, RCAF, or the Free French.

 

[thaddeus]

my view it is more plausible to have a group of fascist (or authoritarian) regimes aligned with the Nazi regime to varying degrees around the Med (Italy, Vichy France, Spain, Portugal, and even Greece) resulting in a Cold War scenario than to have the Axis driven from North Africa.

In the original post, I specified that the Axis loses all of Africa. Though, I'm also interested in what would happen if the Axis maintained at least some of Africa.

I think the maximum Axis hold on Africa would be French West Africa and Italian Libya (+ Tunisia). Many scenarios have East Africa returned to Italy, I personally think this is unlikely. South Africa may or may not become a German ally.
In this scenario, TTL's NATO-equivalent would include Nigeria, Gambia, Sierra Leone and Ghana as Britain-friendly governments with a hostile French Empire to the North.

Part of me thinks that Franco and Salazar would join with the Allies if Hitler went after the Catholic Church, with the Pyrenees becoming this world's Inner-German border. Or perhaps they go full neutral. Or maybe a new peninsula war? Spain may become Hitler's Vietnam as well as Napoleon's.

Is there any chance that Britain could still win North Africa even without Torch? By 1943 they had the Italians on the run even before the Algerian landings. It may be possible that the only Axis hold in Africa would be French colonies & South Africa (unless Tunisia goes to Mussolini as a consolation prize).

if you have a collapse of the Axis position(s) in North Africa you are closely tracking historical events and my question would be how do you achieve a Cold War scenario?

it just seems the simplest path to a Cold War would be a British defeat at Dunkirk (or a less successful evacuation, which was actually expected), followed by the aforementioned countries of Italy, Vichy France, and Spain joining the Axis Pact (those were the countries Hitler was shuttling between in 1940.) just speculation on my part that Portugal and Greece might join to avoid invasion, and they both did have authoritarian governments.

the "original" Italian plan was for an invasion of Yugoslavia, but they were pressured not to attempt that by Germany, maybe they could be tied down there and not launch an invasion of Egypt? (or Greece?)

 

[BurkeanLibCon]

if you have a collapse of the Axis position(s) in North Africa you are closely tracking historical events and my question would be how do you achieve a Cold War scenario?

it just seems the simplest path to a Cold War would be a British defeat at Dunkirk (or a less successful evacuation, which was actually expected), followed by the aforementioned countries of Italy, Vichy France, and Spain joining the Axis Pact (those were the countries Hitler was shuttling between in 1940.) just speculation on my part that Portugal and Greece might join to avoid invasion, and they both did have authoritarian governments.

the "original" Italian plan was for an invasion of Yugoslavia, but they were pressured not to attempt that by Germany, maybe they could be tied down there and not launch an invasion of Egypt? (or Greece?)

By original plan for a Cold War was the defeat of Russia around 1942-43 followed by a ceasefire/armistice in the west by 1946, loosely inspired by CalBear’s AANW and Kaiser K’s Valkyrie Rises over Europe.

For as long as Hitler’s alive, the Anglo-Americans are not ending the state of war. Depending on who his successor is you may have a treaty-less peace like that between OTL Russia and Japan.

My main interest is in the structure of British forces with a hostile continent next door. My original views have changed somewhat (becoming convinced of National Service here) but I still believe the Army would smaller compared to the RAF and Royal Navy, if very well trained and equipped.

it just seems the simplest path to a Cold War would be a British defeat at Dunkirk (or a less successful evacuation, which was actually expected), followed by the aforementioned countries of Italy, Vichy France, and Spain joining the Axis Pact (those were the countries Hitler was shuttling between in 1940.) just speculation on my part that Portugal and Greece might join to avoid invasion, and they both did have authoritarian governments.

I personally doubt that Spain or Vichy France would join the Axis in 1940. Franco still needed American imports to recover from the civil war and also needed to stabilise his regime. Vichy France is somewhat more likely but I doubt Franco would enter unless Britain looked on the verge of peacing out.