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How would Australia look if pretty much OTL British convict transportation and associated settlement to Australia occurred over the top of earlier European colonialist efforts?
The PoD would be diffuse, Dutch ships entered Australian waters constantly from 1605 but didn't find anything they valued so never set up trading posts, but they did create this map.
ITTL they do things a little differently; François Thijssen goes a bit further along the SA coast in 1627, various landings along the WA coast find Australian sandalwood, Tasman find the Torres Strait and northeast Queensland coast, glom onto the Makkasar Trepang trade in the NT. The result being that there are several Dutch settlements dotted around Australia populated with a mixture of Dutch colonists and people transplanted from their Asian colonies, but like other Dutch colonies they don't get a big population transfer from Holland itself.
On top of this, as a result of agreements from various wars in Europe in 1788-91 the first, second and third fleets land 4,400 convicts, military and officials at Sydney then then expand as per OTL.