For the past month or two, I've been sort of re-evaluating the recent iteration of my British Southern Cone theory. In other words, I'm still very much thinking about Uruguay and at least pockets of Patagonia and the far south that get colonized by the British before other parts of the Southern Cone, and about Buenos Aires that becomes an independent British client state within a pretty short time after a British victory there in 1807.
What is changing as we speak, though, based mainly on feedback I've heard from some others to my recent questions on the subject, is that I'm allowing for the possibility that the British ultimately do take over most if not all of the eastern and southern Southern Cone. In other words, I'm now entertaining the possibility that in the long term, the British directly take over not just Uruguay (continuously from 1807) and Patagonia and the far south (first in pockets from 1807-08 and eventually throughout the entire area some decades later), but also - on a gradual basis over the ensuing decades - other areas of the Pampas and somewhat beyond. This would be made possible especially if the British let the various republics/provinces of Argentina proper (e.g. Buenos Aires,* Entre Rios, Santa Fe, Cordoba, Mendoza/Cuyo, Santiago del Estero, Salta) each be independent (and relatively weak) ca. the 1810s and that their caudillos are co-opted by the British, as the result of British efforts to prevent civil war in Argentina proper the way there was in real life. (An alternative outcome of British efforts to prevent civil war in Argentina proper is for the caudillos to be gotten rid of as leaders; if that's so, then I think it's probably more likely that Argentina proper becomes just one republic ruled from Buenos Aires. I don't see that as being as likely as the caudillos being co-opted.)
*Except the southwestern sector that includes Bahia Blanca and whose eastern limit is probably the Quequen River; that part becomes part of British Patagonia.
Gradually, one by one, at least many of those republics of Argentina proper get taken over by the British - Entre Rios ca. the 1820s; Buenos Aires and Santa Fe by the 1840s-1850s; Corrientes, Cordoba, and the others later on yet. All this (and especially the Buenos Aires piece) is consistent with British ideals to want to take over Buenos Aires given that it's between Uruguay and Patagonia and that it's a major centre. It seems to me that Lord Carnarvon (the colonial secretary), assuming he's successful in 1874 in a way that he wasn't in South Africa with attempted federation of the British colonies and Boer republics there, federates the then-existing British colonies (Uruguay, Patagonia etc., Entre Rios, Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, and maybe 1-2 more) into a Dominion of Argentina. Perhaps it's then that Britain takes over, for the first time, republics like Cordoba and integrates those into the federation. The republics that remain republics (mainly in the northwest, including Salta and Tucuman, and perhaps Mendoza and other Cuyo republics) are sort of like the Princely States in India (which remain distinct in many ways from official British India) in that it might take longer for them, if at all, to join Argentina. I think such an approach lends itself to a Canada-like situation (bilingual and white, with land borders with one or more rather important neighbours, and gradual buildup of the federation/union) which might prevail with the British in the Southern Cone.
Please tell me what any of you think of this new possibility. Moreover, do you think that Lord Carnarvon would have enjoyed success in South America more than in South Africa?
What is changing as we speak, though, based mainly on feedback I've heard from some others to my recent questions on the subject, is that I'm allowing for the possibility that the British ultimately do take over most if not all of the eastern and southern Southern Cone. In other words, I'm now entertaining the possibility that in the long term, the British directly take over not just Uruguay (continuously from 1807) and Patagonia and the far south (first in pockets from 1807-08 and eventually throughout the entire area some decades later), but also - on a gradual basis over the ensuing decades - other areas of the Pampas and somewhat beyond. This would be made possible especially if the British let the various republics/provinces of Argentina proper (e.g. Buenos Aires,* Entre Rios, Santa Fe, Cordoba, Mendoza/Cuyo, Santiago del Estero, Salta) each be independent (and relatively weak) ca. the 1810s and that their caudillos are co-opted by the British, as the result of British efforts to prevent civil war in Argentina proper the way there was in real life. (An alternative outcome of British efforts to prevent civil war in Argentina proper is for the caudillos to be gotten rid of as leaders; if that's so, then I think it's probably more likely that Argentina proper becomes just one republic ruled from Buenos Aires. I don't see that as being as likely as the caudillos being co-opted.)
*Except the southwestern sector that includes Bahia Blanca and whose eastern limit is probably the Quequen River; that part becomes part of British Patagonia.
Gradually, one by one, at least many of those republics of Argentina proper get taken over by the British - Entre Rios ca. the 1820s; Buenos Aires and Santa Fe by the 1840s-1850s; Corrientes, Cordoba, and the others later on yet. All this (and especially the Buenos Aires piece) is consistent with British ideals to want to take over Buenos Aires given that it's between Uruguay and Patagonia and that it's a major centre. It seems to me that Lord Carnarvon (the colonial secretary), assuming he's successful in 1874 in a way that he wasn't in South Africa with attempted federation of the British colonies and Boer republics there, federates the then-existing British colonies (Uruguay, Patagonia etc., Entre Rios, Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, and maybe 1-2 more) into a Dominion of Argentina. Perhaps it's then that Britain takes over, for the first time, republics like Cordoba and integrates those into the federation. The republics that remain republics (mainly in the northwest, including Salta and Tucuman, and perhaps Mendoza and other Cuyo republics) are sort of like the Princely States in India (which remain distinct in many ways from official British India) in that it might take longer for them, if at all, to join Argentina. I think such an approach lends itself to a Canada-like situation (bilingual and white, with land borders with one or more rather important neighbours, and gradual buildup of the federation/union) which might prevail with the British in the Southern Cone.
Please tell me what any of you think of this new possibility. Moreover, do you think that Lord Carnarvon would have enjoyed success in South America more than in South Africa?