Britain's reaction to a decisive defeat at Trafalgar?

How will the British react if the Battle of Trafalgar went decisively in favor of the Franco-Spanish fleet? Is it enough for them to consider making peace with Napoleon? Or will they be out for blood and push further to take France down?
 
Well, if Collingwood does not commit suicide, he gets tried and hung.

And I don't think this is going to change the course of the war.

The Royal Navy still has as many ships as France and Spain together.
 
Even a catostrophic defeat at Trafalgar wouldn't material affect the balance of power at sea.

The French and Spanish navies were in terrible shape at this time, France due to the purges during the revolution and the navy getting 3rd rate manpower, and Spain had been rotting since the death of Charles III.

A significant victory was unlikely under these circumstances. Note most Naval battles ended with just a few ships lost and both fleets break off for repairs.

More likely is that Britain's fleet gets caught in a hurricane or something and lost.

That would hurt but Britain's superiority was so overwhelming it would not leave lasting mark.

There may be some short term affects:

1. Napolean would hold onto his idea of invading Britain and/or Ireland, always a favorite POD for me.

2. Napolean may attempt to utilize local superiority in the Mediterranean to intervene further in Egypt, the Levant, the Ottoman (on side of the Russians), Greece, etc, etc.

3. Maybe France may attempt to aid Joseph I of Spain in trying to keep down Spain's colonial rebellions against Bonapartist rule. Unlikely as Spain itself was rebelling.

In the long run, no likely affects. An attempted invasion of Ireland might be the most likely scenario.
 
I disagree that it wouldn't have any significant effect.

N's army is waiting for news of Trafalgar at Bologne. If the French Navy, beat up though it may be, is victorious, N has time to cross the Channel. That butterflies the entire rest of the conflict, even if he only gets a portion of his army across. That's all he needs to march on London and decide the war, imo.
 
I disagree that it wouldn't have any significant effect.

N's army is waiting for news of Trafalgar at Bologne. If the French Navy, beat up though it may be, is victorious, N has time to cross the Channel. That butterflies the entire rest of the conflict, even if he only gets a portion of his army across. That's all he needs to march on London and decide the war, imo.

If one is prepared to ignore the 50 ships of the line in UK waters (and 355 vessels of frigate size or smaller) that never went anywhere near Trafalgar then yes, that might be possible. As one really shouldn't, then no. Sorry. These were the vessels whose specific and sole purpose was the maritime defence of the United Kingdom and which alone not only outnumbered any other individual navy but any realistic combination of navies at that time.
 
Even if France could surprise the British long enough to land troops, the entire 200K man army designated for the task would not be able to make it over. A small French force, led by Napoleon or not, would simply be lost and captured.
 
I don't think a victory of Trafalgar would allow the French to invade Britain successfully - I wonder if Napoleon would be foolhardy enough to try even so.

A French victory could change things significantly though. OTL the French and the Spanish were dogged by a lack of experienced manpower, the British kept sinking ships and bottling them up in port meaning that men died just as they were starting to get a decent level of experience or men never got the opportunity to sail a ship on the open sea in the first place. With a victory at Trafalgar, the British lose more skilled manpower and need to take some time to gather another fleet sufficient to face the French again. In the meantime, the French and Spanish fleets can operate more widely, get more experience and the next battle the British face, the footing will be more even.

Also worth noting, the French ships were in fact more technologically advanced. If the French get a decent string of victories at sea, then the British will face a real problem.

And this is ignoring where the French were actually going when the British intercepted them at Trafalgar - their aim was the West Indies. The Franco-Spanish fleet tearing around the Caribbean would not be good for Britain - the sugar plantations were her main source of income.

fasquardon
 
Napoleon's army

Also, another thing to think about is that the majority of Napoleon's army is playing in central Europe at this time. Having defeated General Mack and getting ready to try and close down the Austrians and Russians.
 
I disagree that it wouldn't have any significant effect.

N's army is waiting for news of Trafalgar at Bologne. If the French Navy, beat up though it may be, is victorious, N has time to cross the Channel. That butterflies the entire rest of the conflict, even if he only gets a portion of his army across. That's all he needs to march on London and decide the war, imo.

Trafalgar was on October 21.

The day before that, "N's army" was receiving the capitulation of the unfortunate General Mack in central Germany.
 
Right.

Whatever the result of the battle, Trafalgar was too late for any french Channel crossing attempt.
 
Trafalgar was on October 21.

The day before that, "N's army" was receiving the capitulation of the unfortunate General Mack in central Germany.

Right.

Whatever the result of the battle, Trafalgar was too late for any french Channel crossing attempt.

Indeed the weather alone by that time of year would have precluded invasion even if Napoleon had been willing to keep his Grand Army sitting idle and ignoring his other problems.
 
Well British knew if Trafalgar Battle were losed they would be destroyed.Nelson,the best Admiral from World (in that era) decided that if they would retreat Napoleon would have a certain victory and a supremacy over Atlantic Ocean.If France would won, the Spanish fleet would advanced on Ireland for a massive attack and france on British isles from 2 directions.West and South.If Britan failed and were conquered France would advanced on Norway having a free way to attack Russia on 3 different ways.North Center and South.....
 
Well British knew if Trafalgar Battle were losed they would be destroyed.Nelson,the best Admiral from World (in that era) decided that if they would retreat Napoleon would have a certain victory and a supremacy over Atlantic Ocean.If France would won, the Spanish fleet would advanced on Ireland for a massive attack and france on British isles from 2 directions.West and South.If Britan failed and were conquered France would advanced on Norway having a free way to attack Russia on 3 different ways.North Center and South.....

Not a chance in hell. As other people have pointed out, if Britain lost every ship at Trafalgar, the British navy still significantly outnumbers France and Spain combined. Britain has more than 400 ships in British waters to prevent just that scenario. Even with a setback at Trafalgar Britain is already the master of the seas and the idea of Napoleon bringing the fight to the British is about as plausible as Sealion. Morale-wise a defeat is a blow to England, materially it's not a problem.
 
materially it's not a problem.

I wouldn't go that far. There were 33 ships in Nelson's fleet. That is a significant part of the RN's manpower on those boats and it isn't like they could make good such large losses anytime soon - the RN was busy impressing Americans they were so hungry for manpower, remember.

Losing the battle would be a major blow. But at the same time, it doesn't put the British anywhere close to defeat and certainly doesn't leave them in more danger of being invaded.

fasquardon
 

Cryostorm

Monthly Donor
The Battle of Trafalgar is Britain's version of D-Day for the Allies and Midway for the US. A nice victory and helped speed up their triumph but ultimately unimportant because a loss would not have changed the overall course of the war.
 
No. The battle of Trafalgar just secured that Britain would not be invaded for the next 15 years. By no way did guarantee final victory in the war.
 
Nelson's death probably has more impact than the battle itself. It might cause Napoleon to become overconfident and attempt an invasion anyway.
 
I don't think it leads to a British invasion, but a major defeat would have effects. More commerce raiding, less respect for Britain in Europe, etc. Napoleon may make another go for Egypt after Tilsit.
 
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