Britain's fate part I: The French and Russians win

[Aphrodite]

This is the first in a series of threads where we consider what happens to the British if they make different choices in August 1914 if different outcomes happen (I thought we'd do Italy and Romania next)


Our scenario: The British declare neutrality and Europe goes to war. Miracles happen and everything goes the French and Russian way The Germans are defeated in East Prussia, Conrad can't escape in Galicia and France goes through the gap and separates the German first army and destroys it. The ensuing German retreat turns into a panic and the German army collapses. The French reach the Rhine by Oct 1 1914 and the war ends

France and Russia are free to dictate any terms they desire

Our questions: What terms do the Franco-Russians dictate?

What is the future of the British Empire?

Yes I know that this is borderline ASB with a POD of 1914 though easily done with a POD of 1911 or so. If anyone wants to argue about the plausibility, we can start another thread. The important points are the British didn't know the outcome when they chose to intervene and many observers thought this likely

 

[Alanith]

This is the first in a series of threads where we consider what happens to the British if they make different choices in August 1914 if different outcomes happen (I thought we'd do Italy and Romania next)


Our scenario: The British declare neutrality and Europe goes to war. Miracles happen and everything goes the French and Russian way The Germans are defeated in East Prussia, Conrad can't escape in Galicia and France goes through the gap and separates the German first army and destroys it. The ensuing German retreat turns into a panic and the German army collapses. The French reach the Rhine by Oct 1 1914 and the war ends

France and Russia are free to dictate any terms they desire

Our questions: What terms do the Franco-Russians dictate?

What is the future of the British Empire?

Yes I know that this is borderline ASB with a POD of 1914 though easily done with a POD of 1911 or so. If anyone wants to argue about the plausibility, we can start another thread. The important points are the British didn't know the outcome when they chose to intervene and many observers thought this likely

Britain leans on France and Russia and forces them to moderate their peace terms if they're pushing Germany and AH too hard.

 

[Mackus]

Hmm. UK and Germany are both in trouble.

Germany probably suffer territorial losses similar to ITL, only that eastern provinces go to Russia not Poland, and all her African colonies to France rather that be shared with UK.
Germany also lost her main ally, Austro-Hungary. Russians partition it, probably set up puppet kingdom in Czechoslovakia. Italy might still get a small slice just to keep her on Franco-Russian's good side.

UK is, depending on her next move, either totally doomed or totally fine.
If she largely gives up on war of expnsion on being #1 global power, she'll do okay, keep her territories and maintain her strong economy. She's too strong to be conquered, but to weak to expand, and has sea separating her from continental powers of Europe.
If she decides to restart Great Game with Russia, or mess up with French colonial Empire, she pretty much doomed herself by picking up fight with Europe's hegemons.

Britain leans on France and Russia and forces them to moderate their peace terms if they're pushing Germany and AH too hard.

She's in no position to do so. If war ends in 1914, French and Russians are super-confident, and didn't even had to go off the gold standard, since they didn't accumulate huge wardebt.

 

[Aphrodite]

Britain leans on France and Russia and forces them to moderate their peace terms if they're pushing Germany and AH too hard.

How?

 

[Aphrodite]

Hmm. UK and Germany are both in trouble.

Germany probably suffer territorial losses similar to ITL, only that eastern provinces go to Russia not Poland, and all her African colonies to France rather that be shared with UK.
Germany also lost her main ally, Austro-Hungary. Russians partition it, probably set up puppet kingdom in Czechoslovakia. Italy might still get a small slice just to keep her on Franco-Russian's good side.

UK is, depending on her next move, either totally doomed or totally fine.
If she largely gives up on war of expnsion on being #1 global power, she'll do okay, keep her territories and maintain her strong economy. She's too strong to be conquered, but to weak to expand, and has sea separating her from continental powers of Europe.
If she decides to restart Great Game with Russia, or mess up with French colonial Empire, she pretty much doomed herself by picking up fight with Europe's hegemons.


She's in no position to do so. If war ends in 1914, French and Russians are super-confident, and didn't even had to go off the gold standard, since they didn't accumulate huge wardebt.

Would France and Russia, having defeated the Germans and feeling betrayed by Britain, turn on the British Empire? The old two power standard had been against Russia + France. With that combination again unfriendly, can Britain still compete? What's Italy's game? Britain can't keep the French out of Rome

 

[Mackus]

How?

Good question!
They have nothing to lean on Franco-Russian Entente.

Would France and Russia, having defeated the Germans and feeling betrayed by Britain, turn on the British Empire? The old two power standard had been against Russia + France. With that combination again unfriendly, can Britain still compete? What's Italy's game? Britain can't keep the French out of Rome

'Turn on'
Well, its hard question.
They might, but they just fought a war, and need to digest their conquests.
If UK doesn't try to pick a fight with them, they might just leave them alone.
Same with Italy. France doesn't have any claims on Italy.
But WWII might start over something silly in Afghanistan or Africa.

 

[Thomas1195]

Based on French demographic trends, France is not a big problem at all. This is not the case for Russia.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Would France and Russia, having defeated the Germans and feeling betrayed by Britain, turn on the British Empire?

You really don’t like the British Empire, do you?

The old two power standard had been against Russia + France. With that combination again unfriendly, can Britain still compete?

Still compete? There was no competition in the Naval sphere, Britain had won that game a long time ago. Anyway, if Britain has stayed out, financially she’s in a much better place. Spending on the navy will be relatively simple for her. Remember “we want eight and we won’t wait” wasn’t that long ago.

What's Italy's game? Britain can't keep the French out of Rome

Why are the French going to be in Rome? Where’s this French desire to conquer Italy come from?

 

[King Augeas]

Britain had put a lot of effort into reducing tensions and solving problems with the French and Russian before the war wrt their colonial empires. Here, I doubt they were properly neutral, but instead strongly supported the Entente and kept the HSF bottled up. The French might feel a little aggrieved that Britain didn't join in, but the war was won so easily that they didn't need British help!

It could all go wrong later, but the initial post-war set-up is quite favourable - friendly powers with whom Britain has a history of effective diplomatic engagement and who are more concerned with digesting their gains.

 

[jeandebueil]

Just to give some informations here. In 1914, the war aims of France and Russia were:
-France: at the very least Alsace-Moselle for its iron and the Sarre for its coal. Belgium must be restored with financial AND territorial reparations (either Eupen-Malmédy or Eupen-Malmédy with Aachen at the very most if France is angry against Germany). Luxembourg must either leave the German sphere of influence (the nice option), be annexed by France (but the left and the moderates weren't very enthusiast about the idea), be annexed by by Belgium (again only favoured by a minority of Belgian nationalists).
Denmark must receive something.
-Russia: wants to unify all the polish lands under her control, meaning Poznan, Upper Silesia, Mazuria and Galicia. A land corridor separating East Prussia and Pomerania wasn't really proposed. Serbia must at least control the ethnically Serbian parts of the A-H empire (basically territories North of Belgrade and around Sarajevo. Montenegro receives Kotor and portions of Albania. Serbia can also have some. In 1914, Russia didn't want to destroy A-H but would surely favour an autonomy of slavic minorities (particularly Czechs and slovaks) within the Empire in order to introduce a delicate balance of powers within the A-H Empire which would neutralize it as a result.
Italy could get Trentino (but not Bozen), Gorizia and Triest if Russia and France decide to be nice but that's not a given.

All of these would be considered relatively lenient terms by France and Russia and they wouldn't accept less. Britain would be glad of these since the destruction of Germany and A-H would not be invoked.

 

[DracoLazarus]

Just to give some informations here. In 1914, the war aims of France and Russia were:
-France: at the very least Alsace-Moselle for its iron and the Sarre for its coal. Belgium must be restored with financial AND territorial reparations (either Eupen-Malmédy or Eupen-Malmédy with Aachen at the very most if France is angry against Germany). Luxembourg must either leave the German sphere of influence (the nice option), be annexed by France (but the left and the moderates weren't very enthusiast about the idea), be annexed by by Belgium (again only favoured by a minority of Belgian nationalists).
Denmark must receive something.
-Russia: wants to unify all the polish lands under her control, meaning Poznan, Upper Silesia, Mazuria and Galicia. A land corridor separating East Prussia and Pomerania wasn't really proposed. Serbia must at least control the ethnically Serbian parts of the A-H empire (basically territories North of Belgrade and around Sarajevo. Montenegro receives Kotor and portions of Albania. Serbia can also have some. In 1914, Russia didn't want to destroy A-H but would surely favour an autonomy of slavic minorities (particularly Czechs and slovaks) within the Empire in order to introduce a delicate balance of powers within the A-H Empire which would neutralize it as a result.
Italy could get Trentino (but not Bozen), Gorizia and Triest if Russia and France decide to be nice but that's not a given.

All of these would be considered relatively lenient terms by France and Russia and they wouldn't accept less. Britain would be glad of these since the destruction of Germany and A-H would not be invoked.

Didn't France already have so much iron ore in Briey-Longwy that Germany imported from them ?

 

[Governer-General]

Yes I know that this is borderline ASB with a POD of 1914 though easily done with a POD of 1911 or so.

How?

 

[jeandebueil]

Didn't France already have so much iron ore in Briey-Longwy that Germany imported from them ?

Indeed but with the iron ore from Metz, France can basically double its iron ore production (roughly from 25 millions tons to 45). Such an opportunity would not be missed by the French government.

 

[Aphrodite]

How?

In the sense that it asks for everything to break Russia and France's way, some would argue its ASB. It so common on threads I post I put that in to prevent the discussion getting sidetracked

 

[Aphrodite]

Didn't France already have so much iron ore in Briey-Longwy that Germany imported from them ?

Indeed but with the iron ore from Metz, France can basically double its iron ore production (roughly from 25 millions tons to 45). Such an opportunity would not be missed by the French government.

The Germans imported about 5 million tons from France. They also imported it from Spain and Sweden. Germany produced more than France . Its just that German consumption was extremely high

I think France takes the Rhineland. Its rich in coal as well as Iron. The River gives it a nice defensible boundary. OTL the French took a bridgehead past it for the armistice The Germans living there would be given a chance to move and possibly some autonomy

 

[CaliGuy]

Would France and Russia, having defeated the Germans and feeling betrayed by Britain, turn on the British Empire?

Certainly not immediately. In the long(er)-run, Russia might; however, France might be uninterested in backing Russia up in regards to this.

The old two power standard had been against Russia + France. With that combination again unfriendly, can Britain still compete?

Hell Yeah, Britain can compete; indeed, it's better off without a World War sapping a lot of its money and manpower.

What's Italy's game? Britain can't keep the French out of Rome

Why would France attack Rome in this TL? After all, Italy would be a loyal and reliable French ally after the end of this TL's World War I if France and Russia are nice enough to give Italy at least some of the parts of Austria-Hungary that it wants.

 

[Governer-General]

In the sense that it asks for everything to break Russia and France's way, some would argue its ASB. It so common on threads I post I put that in to prevent the discussion getting sidetracked

I mean how Russo-French forces defeat Germany/A-H with 1911 POD. I actually want to hear that, if this requires another thread, go for it.

 

[BooNZ]

Indeed but with the iron ore from Metz, France can basically double its iron ore production (roughly from 25 millions tons to 45). Such an opportunity would not be missed by the French government.

My understanding was France had an embarrassment of riches in terms of iron ore throughout France, but its main deficiency was in coal.

In the sense that it asks for everything to break Russia and France's way, some would argue its ASB. It so common on threads I post I put that in to prevent the discussion getting sidetracked

So you are saying space bats were not responsible for the unprecedented cluster of miracles you chained together - got it.

I think France takes the Rhineland. Its rich in coal as well as Iron. The River gives it a nice defensible boundary. OTL the French took a bridgehead past it for the armistice The Germans living there would be given a chance to move and possibly some autonomy

There is ordinarily a general consensus that WW1 war goals became more demanding as the war progressed - is there any particular reason why the French go bat-shit crazy inside six months in this scenario?

The French socialists came to power in early 1914 featuring a platform of peace and reconciliation with Germany - I would expect the majority of the French elected representatives would have a moderating influence on any extremist claims. Indirectly the victory likely changes of status of France from Russian mistress to Russian chamber maid, which is a good reason for France to maintain decent relations with Britain - a Britain that would also be preaching moderation.

 

[Karelian]

The raison d'être of a Franco-Russian alliance disappears after Germany is defeated and Russian influence in central Europe grows. French and Russian interests in the Ottoman Empire were virtually opposed, and France never supported Russia against colonial disputes with Britain.

Russia has plenty of internal troubles and newly expanded sphere of influence in central-Eastern Europe to keep her busy from starting further expasion anytime soon.
Despite of British (understandable) fears of isolation, Britain could still retain her traditional role as the power-broker of Europe, balancing the new coalitions against one another.

 

[jeandebueil]

My understanding was France had an embarrassment of riches in terms of iron ore throughout France, but its main deficiency was in coal.
.

France produced 23-25 millions tons of iron each year, including 18-21 millions tons for the Longwy-Briey basin alone. Morrocco and Algeria could produce 1 million tons of iron ore of excellent quality and could have produced more with more tools and qualified workers. I will add that France only use 10 to 12 millions tons of its iron ore to fuel its industry: the rest was exported mainly to Germany, secondary to Belgium.
France was producing 45 millions tons of coal a year, more than enough for its industry and its population.