Britain stays out of World War I

So what happens? Easy German victory, or not? Long-term effects better or worse?

Sorry for the short post, am at work, so should actually be concentrating on that.
 
I don't think it would necessarily be an 'easy' German victory but I would expect that to be the end result.

Part of the question is going to have to be on the exact circumstances of Britain staying out - i.e. did Churchill make the pledge to France to keep the Channel clear of German warships (which he made before Britain joined the war) and even if it is made, would Britain keep it, seeing that their staying out may well result in a change of government sooner rather than later ?

Assuming, for the sake of argument, that the High Seas Fleet isn't about to steam up the Channel and bombard the French flank, then the major change is on land. France is going to be spread thinner, and whether this results in a breakthrough for the Germans is a matter of much debate, IIRC - French commentators tend to downplay British forces' saving effect in August 1914, British commentators play it up...

Would there still be a 'Miracle of the Marne' ? If not, is that because the French have halted the Germans earlier (how ?) or because Paris falls ? If Paris falls, does France call it a day rather than run the risk of having 1870-71 all over again ?

As a note, with Britain formally declaring neutrality Italy might be bribed to enter the war on the German side...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
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