However, what I wonder is if Hitler - maniac he was - after a victory in the west would actually be able to wait until spring/summer 1941, his 'reputation' (not at least in his self-perception) as GRÖFAZ (Greatest Commander of all times) even more boosted ITTL.
Let me put some flesh
to this bone ...
With the armistice of midth June with France as well as Britain and the expectation of a peace-treaty putting Britain on his side - as Hitler would most likely perceive it - the plans and preparations for Sealion until then become moot.
Instead, as Hitler mentioned IOTL towards Runstedt on 2nd June 1940, now Hitler has his "hands free" for his "great and true task/mission : to fight the Bolshevism." he orders - lets say around 20th June, a month earlier than IOTL (
21st July after the british 'cold shoulder' became more n' more apparent) - a plan to invade the SU still this year ...
There WILL be quite some screaming, howling, pants-pissing-panicking. A major campaing still this years ?? ... when the summer has already almost endet ?? .. against and into bottomless, abysmal Russia ??
In a way he takes - once again - the militaries by surprize ... not only in having no plan at hands (
as in 1939) but also regarding building up a possible reisitance political, as 1938 and lesser 1939 (Oster-group), as well as professional, as IOTL on several occasions. They will be pleading for a delay.
As it actually is rather late into the 'war-season' and the armed forces despite their flashing victory need some replentishing and recreation (
not at least the industry as the army plan of 18th June to deminish the 'Heer' from 165 to 120 division was designed for) Hitler might be talked into kinda 'compromise' :
A two-stage-campaign with 'lesser' operations still this year but the 'finishing' move on full scale german operational strength in 1941 for the full campaign season of this year.
First :
A 'short' wintercampaign on hard, frozen soil that facilitates tank-operations (
compared to rather unfavorable 'rasputiza'-conditions the germans knew of) from beginning of freezy weather end of November, beginning December.
(
Don't forget : IOTL Brauchitsch claimed in front of Hitler, that it would take 80-100 division to defeat the Red Army in 4 - 6 weeks ...)
Second :
After reaching a line from the Gulf of Finnland Leningrad (
besieged at least)-Smolensk-west of Kiew-Dnjepr-knee to the Sea of Azov (
something like Gulf of Finnland-Narwa-Lake Peipus-Beresina-Kiew-Nikolajew-Black Sea might be more ... 'realistic', maybe also envisaged so by the generals but ... you know ... Hitler ... and his 'overconfidence' have to be 'served'...) there would be some digging-in for the time of the spring-rasputitza to be followed by an all-out attack on the maybe still existing remnants of the Red Army and SU after a thorough bombing campaign ... If the russians wouldn't have folded already due to the latter.
And on this preliminaries planning into more details might start 1st to 2nd week of July, parallel to the treaty-negotiations with the wallies.
Industry will be 'informed', winter clothing and long(er) range planes will be ordered (Russia is ... deeep), as for the "First strike" not the whole of the army as IOTL is needed it might actually stay on the 135 or even less divisional strenght ordered by Hitler on 13th July IOTL. Industry might also start to 'florish' in a way by access to the world markets on raw materials ... and trade with the US.
Hitler will ofc also do kinda 'Grand Tour' (Franco, Petain, Mussolini) as IOTL to gather support. Most likely also with the rest of the lot also, at least on diplomatic channels, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgary, probably also Yugoslavia and Greece, which ITTL will be part of the 'German Sphere' as negotiated with the Brits. Maybe there will also be some advances towards Turkey about some 'caucasian questions' they might have with the SU ... ofc only in the backrooms. Maybe less might be some advances in the Near East ... as IOTL also but ITTL more ... intense.
With and after the 2nd Vienna Award late August relations ... deteriorate further. Due to some 'favorable' deals on the world market the germans get reluctant and uncomfortable - for the SU - about its prolongation after February 1941 during their negotiations in Oktober.Maybe then also some ... 'tensions' in the polish territories also beginn ... finally culminating in some 'border problems', polish insurgents comming from the SU etc. and actually first week of December after the first 4-6 days of temperatures below freezing point (as IOTL, check weather charts available on the web) the german attack due to 'ongoing border violations supported by the SU begins.
Now : what would/could the SU aka Stalin have done with propably getting an idea at beginning August (at best) himself ? ... less than 4 month for whatever preparation ?