alternatehistory.com

It's an interesting fact that most Canada-wanks tend to have a POD involving the War of 1812. Very rarely does the ARW get brought into it, and this surprises me. Suppose for a moment that Britain does better in the ARW (I'm thinking of a vague scenario where no foreign power comes to the aid of the fledgling USA). As a result, while the USA still successfully secedes from British rule, Britain holds on to land that was gained by the USA in OTL, but as of the ARW's end, wasn't actually occupied by the USA at all. I'm thinking of all of Ohio Country, the regions occupied by the Iroqois, and the northern regions of Maine.

On the map below, everything marked in orange remains British. Of the yellow areas (the Indian reserve), the areas north of the Ohio (roughly corresponding to Iroqois territory) also remain British, while the much larger region south of the Ohio goes to the USA as per OTL. Additionally, the northern regions of Maine (disputed for some time after the ARW in OTL) remain in British hands. So do West and East Florida (returned to Spain in OTL; that doesn't happen here).

Situation in 1775 North America Portland State University.jpg

...doesn't this provide a basis for an instant Canada-wank? It surprises me that everyone is always trying to get an Indian buffer state created in the War of 1812, covering part of the Ohio Country/North-West Territory... when a POD in the ARW can simply prevent the USA from getting any of the Ogio Country in the first place. Similarly, people are concerning themselves with ways to give Canada a strip of land belonging to New York in OTL, to facilitate the creation of a St. Lawrence canal... but again, a POD in the ARW can ensure that this land never falls into the hands of the USA to begin with.

Am I crazy, or is an ARW-related POD the superior starting point for an ambitious Canada-wank? Presuming that Britain is dedicated to actually keeping US settlers out of the relevant areas (or at least dedicated to ensuring that any such settlers cannot secede the areas from Britain and join the USA), the whole of British North America is now in a much better starting position:

-- It's got far more useful land (the Ohio Country).

-- It's got the ability to contruct a St. Lawrence Canal.

-- It actually controls land that the USA would need to construct an Erie Canal (so assume that there will be no Erie Canal).

-- It has Northern Maine, where it will later be able to build a very useful railroad from the coast to Montréal.

In short, British North America gets a huge boost, while the USA is rather screwed (though hardly hopelessly so) compared to OTL. This doesn't even go into the fact that without French involvement in the ARW (the presumed POD?), the French revolution may just be prevented, or turned into a much milder affair (resulting in constitutional monarchy). That, in turn, means that Spain keeps Louisiana Country (no Napoleon to grab it off them). Not having Florida (which stays British), Spain will have just a few more settlers for Louisiana. They may not be interested in selling it to the USA, especially not if Britain is opposed to such a transaction. This, too, limits the ability of the USA to ever pose a threat to British North America.

At the same time, without the Napoleonic Wars, Britain will have more time and energy available to invest in North America. Keeping in mind that British colonisation of Australia was at least partially instigated by the loss of North America as a huge dumping ground for convicts and other undesirables, this ATL (which is based on Britain retaining more of North America) may well be one wherein British is much less interested in Australia, and keeps sending convict ships west to ensure that the Ohio Country gets well-populated before the USA can start moving in on it...

Truly, I see the makings of a very ambitious Canada-wank here.
Top