Britain Keeps Florida

Several years ago I looked at what might have happened if the British had been able to hold on to the American deep south at the end of the Revolutionary War. Let’s try something a little more modest.
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What actually happened: A very competent and aggressive Spanish commander managed to grab a strong enough position in Florida that it was awarded to Spain at the end of the war.

What might have happened: The British defeats in Florida were not preordained.. They were largely a matter of timing and who deployed their forces most effective. Let’s say that the British end the war in control of Florida. This was a fight between Britain and Spain and Florida goes to Britain instead of Spain at the end of the war.

So what does Britain do with the colony? Among other things, most of the 3,500 black loyalists (African-Americans who fought on the British side in the American Revolution) who historically ended up in Nova Scotia would probably end up there, along with a few others who historically were already in Florida.

A large free black population in Florida would make the area a magnet for slaves in adjoining areas of the US south. That would be an ongoing source of friction with the US, as would British efforts to maintain influence with the major Indian tribes in the Southeast.

Some of the tens of thousands of non-African American loyalists who historically went to various parts of Canada would undoubtedly settle in Florida too. Actually several thousand loyalist refugees fled to Florida during the American Revolution and then went to Nova Scotia or back to England when the British gave it up.

Florida would be a focus of US/British conflict in the War of 1812, of course. I doubt that the US would take it back unless the British decided that it wasn’t worth the effort. I doubt that they would do that at the end of the war because they would see it as being too useful in containing the US and maintaining British influence on the major Indian tribes of the Southeast. Florida would also be a convenient dumping ground for African American populations that were accumulating in Britain itself for various reasons.​
 
One aspect of the British control of Florida: The British colony of Florida was actually two colonies. East Florida was basically the current state. West Florida extended west along the Gulf Coast almost to New Orleans, taking in the bottom third to a half of what are now Mississippi and Alabama. British control of that area would change the structure of US expansion in the deep south and the ability of the early US to maintain the balance between slave states and free states.

It would also change the nature of Indian wars in the area. The Choctaws would be partially in the British sphere, as would the Creeks. The Creeks would be caught in the middle during the War of 1812, with the both sides trying to get the tribe to side with them and with Creek country probably getting fought over several times during the war. That would probably abort or reshape the Red Stick war.

The large free black population in East Florida would undoubtedly be a continued irritant between the British administration in the two Florida provinces and the United States. Florida would become a refuge for runaway slaves, and the British would probably recruit slaves as porters and even soldiers in their inevitable attempts to invade Georgia and maybe South Carolina during the War of 1812. Assuming that the boundaries stayed about the same at the end of the war, the British would end up with more slaves who had been promised freedom on their hands, presumably swelling the African-American population still further.

I’m not sure what the white loyalist population would think of all of this. Presumably at least some of them would be slave-holders or ex-slave holders. There would undoubtedly be considerable friction between the two groups, and probably quite a few runaways from local slave-owners.

After the War of 1812, there would probably be a period of a kind of cold war, with the southern states and the British Florida provinces eyeing each other warily for at least the next fifty or sixty years, and to some extent longer, but with the main governments not willing to fight round three.

As noted, British control of this territory would shift the balance between Slave and Free states early on. There might still be a Mississippi and Alabama even though they would be much smaller than the historic versions. There wouldn’t be a state of Florida though. Historically, Florida became a state in 1845, just a few months before Texas.​
 
BTW: If you can believe Wikipedia, West Florida shares another distinction with Texas: it was briefly an independent country. In this case the independence lasted about 90 days in 1810. There’s a challenge for another day: End up with an independent Republic of West Florida surviving as long as possible.

Ahem. Back to our current scenario. Speaking of Texas, there was talk of Britain taking over the Republic of Texas before the US annexed it. Already having a southern tier of Provinces might make that more attractive to the British. On the other hand, frostier and more threatening relations between the US and Britain might make a British Texas seem more like a threat to the US, and might make the US more anxious to annex Texas. That in turn could lead to an earlier Mexican-American war. Not sure what the consequences of that would be.

Speaking of the Mexican-American war, assuming that it happened approximately the same way as it did historically, the impact of the British owning most of the ports on the Gulf Coast would be interesting. The US would have far less capacity to generate military power in the Gulf of Mexico, and the British would have far more.​
What kind of an economy would British Florida develop? I’m guessing that West Florida would develop a cotton plantation-based economy, much as the area did historically. That would cause issues if the British abolished slavery in most of the empire on schedule in 1833. They did exempt certain parts of the empire from abolition, so it’s possible they might exempt West Florida. If not, they would probably have a five or ten year “apprenticeship” for slaves, that was essentially a temporary extension of slavery for slaves more than six years old.

I’m not sure where this goes from here. Cotton plantation-type slavery had to either expand or die due to its impact on the soil, and by the time of the Civil War a lot of the eastern slave state plantations were essentially breeding slaves for the newer slave states to the west, though they vehemently denied that.​
There are a lot of ways to go with this. What would the impact of British abolition right across the border be on the south? How would the existence of a large population of free blacks near the border affect relations between plantation owners and slaves in the remaining slave states? How would the reduced exports of cotton to the British empire affect the US balance of payments? Would any of this affect the timing of the invention of the cotton gin?

At this point, the number of branches gets nearly impossible to follow without deciding on which way some of them go, and unfortunately I’m running out of time.
 
When the US acquired Florida via treaty, it renounced all claims on Texas. We might see earlier intervention in Texas by the US.
 
Jackson

You need to think about how this impacts both the War of 1812 and Andrew Jackson. The war is going to be more intense in the south than OTL. With West Florida as a jumping off point I see an earlier attempt to take New Orleans which might possibly succeed. The question is what role does Jackson play in the war? Obviously if he is killed he does not become President but neither if he is perceived as an ultimate failure (even if he has some initial success).

If he somehow does become president and Britain did not lose all of Florida in the war I see another war as highly probable (I'll refrain from declaring it inevitable)

If he does not become president you have a host of deltas.

While East Florida included much of what we call Florida that is a misleading picture. We should really need to distinguish between East Florida and South Florida. East Florida will be centered at St. Augustine and will extend maybe as far south as Daytona. South Florida will be the hinterlands south. The loyalists settling in Florida are going to be heading for West Florida and East Florida but not South Florida, which will be occupied by scattered communities of Native Americans and escaped slaves who will not be sitting around singing God Save the King all day.
 
As mentioned, Florida itself would probably be a very diverse place, with Anglo loyalists, black loyalists, and remnant Indians/runaway slaves in the south. The Creek War would probably not happen, at least not the same way as it did historically, so the equivalent of the Seminoles would probably be more African American than they were historically because there wouldn't be the same influx of refugee Creek Indians. On the other hand, Florida might become a refuge for Indians in general as they felt the pressure of the advancing frontier.
 
What kind of an economy would British Florida develop? I’m guessing that West Florida would develop a cotton plantation-based economy, much as the area did historically. That would cause issues if the British abolished slavery in most of the empire on schedule in 1833. They did exempt certain parts of the empire from abolition, so it’s possible they might exempt West Florida. If not, they would probably have a five or ten year “apprenticeship” for slaves, that was essentially a temporary extension of slavery for slaves more than six years old.​


They didn't exempt areas, they gave them reprieves - the idea was very much "slavery is being abolished, and you will lose your slaves, whether you like it or not. You have 5 years to accept this fact" when they granted reprieves. My immediate thought is that West Florida may actually be small enough that the abolition of slavery would still be well within the government's ability to pay, and thus not enough to make Parliament consider delaying or cancelling their decision. This in contrast to if the UK had kept everything south of the Carolinas, where the size of the slavery business would make government payouts for freed slaves an impossible dream, and thus would certainly cause problems and delays in the final freedom of the slaves.

Also the bit about the apprenticeships - that was how they did it everywhere. Slaves were freed but were tied down to paid contracts where they had to stay on-site for something like 10 years and after that point employee and employer could cancel or renegotiate contracts. That, and the way the government paid every slave owner the price of their slave was their way of preventing uproar.
 

NothingNow

Banned
What kind of an economy would British Florida develop? I’m guessing that West Florida would develop a cotton plantation-based economy, much as the area did historically.​

In all likelihood Indigo, Rice, Tobacco, and Sugar would be the main crops for export, since they were cheaper to produce and were more profitable.
However Pima (Egyptian) Cotton, which was IOTL Introduced to the plantations on the Sea Islands by Francis Levett jr., would be a good production crop as well. Maybe Levett starts to grow ITTL it at his families' Julianton Plantation, on the Saint Johns River.
Later On when shipping issues are dealt with, Cattle, Citrus, and other Food Crops might take over a large portion of Florida's exports, since Florida's climate just so happens to make it perfect for growing off-season crops.
While East Florida included much of what we call Florida that is a misleading picture. We should really need to distinguish between East Florida and South Florida. East Florida will be centered at St. Augustine and will extend maybe as far south as Daytona. South Florida will be the hinterlands south.
Actually we don't need to do that as much as we need to distinguish between inland and coastal Florida. Inland Florida is a much harsher place than Coastal Florida, and generally less suitable for Settlement. IOTL settlement projects generally focused on the areas like New Smyrna and the lower Saint Johns.

The loyalists settling in Florida are going to be heading for West Florida and East Florida but not South Florida, which will be occupied by scattered communities of Native Americans and escaped slaves who will not be sitting around singing God Save the King all day.
The loyalists will settle where they can, with West Florida and the area around the Saint Johns, and in general near the coasts. The Maroons and Seminoles would likely settle in the interior, where it's a bit rougher and the Loyalists wouldn't generally go.
 
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