Britain and France Intervene in Syria in 2013 without the USA

Super_Cool

Cameron and Hollande were more interested in intervening in Syria than the Obama administration was.

Would it have been possible for the two European powers to implement a no-fly zone without the United States at the time, or would it have been an impossibility?
 

ian1246

Super_Cool said:
Cameron and Hollande were more interested in intervening in Syria than the Obama administration was.

Would it have been possible for the two European powers to implement a no-fly zone without the United States at the time, or would it have been an impossibility?
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Yes it would have been easily doable.

Syria sits right next door to Cyprus - the UK's most important oversea's base, and one of its largest. RAF Akrotiri has the capability and facilities to, in relatively short-order, accommodate massive amounts of air power & logistical capabilities - including air to air refuelling (Which the UK & France are pretty decent in - and could potentially have got other logistical support from other EU/NATO nations)

Its from Cyprus the UK smashed Egypt up in 1956 - and its Cyprus which formed a core-component of the UK & USA's own efforts in invading Iraq 2003.

If the will was there, the UK & France had the planes, facilities & logistics to impose a no-fly zone over Syria.

This isn't even considering the Charles De Gaulle, or other RN/French Naval assets which could have also been used imposing a no-fly zone/taking out key targets (I.e. cruise-missiles from SSN's).

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HOWEVER: You forget - it wasn't the USA which bailed on using military force against Syria: It was the UK - specifically Parliament telling Cameron "NO!" when he wanted authorisation to start bombing Syria - without UK support, the USA then decided to not use military-force.

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Russia does complicate matters slightly - but they are vastly overrated. They have global projection capabilities potentially even weaker than Italy's or Spains - while having a economy smaller than Italys.

Against anything the UK or France could individually put into the Mediterranean - let alone together - any Russian force would have been hilariously outmatched and thus absolutely pitiful in order to try and intimidate the UK/France into backing off - and economically, Russia is less than 84% the size of the UK's own economy (& even less than that for France) - and this is with Russia having a population of 143.5million compared to the UK's 63.23million & France's 65.447million - so a vastly poorer population & nation per person.

Basically, then: sanctions/economic-warfare wise would have been a loosing proposition for Russia (& this is before we factor in EU retaliation). Militarily would be even worse (Since if France/UK ignore Russia and call Russia's bluff... it gets exposed for the powerless hoax it really is, or otherwise gets the Russian Navy massacred by the RN/French Navy & gets into a hilariously one-sided war with NATO in the process I.e. actual military force = never going to happen).
 

flasheart

The Royal Navy's Response Force Task Group was at the time taking part in wargames in Albania as part of it annual Cougar deployment.
These assets would have been quickly redeployed to the vicinity of Cyprus.
In OTL the RAF deployed a force of 6 typhoons to RAF Akrotiri. These would have reinforced by further typhoon sqn's and probably sqn's of Tornado GR4's backed up by sentinels and E3's.
The French contribution would have most likely have been consisted of a battlegroup based around the carrier Charles de gualle, one or more SSN's and Rafael's or Mirage 2000's again forward depolyed to Cyprus where they could support maritime assets.

The only assets of the Syrian navy that could even hope to challenge the UK/French forces at sea would be the 20+ missile boats it possess. However with regards to possible action in the straits of Hormuz all NATO navies have invested considerable time and resources into countering such a threat.
The Syrian Arab Air Force possess a large number of fighter and ground attack aircraft.
The fighter force is based around MIG 29's, MIG 25's and MIG 23's with a total of roughly 140 aircraft.
The attack force is made up of 70+ aircraft.

The Syrian government aware of what happened to the Libyan air force during the 2011 military intervention may well have decided to launch a first strike. This would most likely have been an air strike against the RN's RFTG as it transited from Albania.
However such action would be unlikely as it would probably involve the loss of a considerable part of the attacking force and could well result in the USA entering the conflict in support of their British allies.

The British and French would probably open their campaign with an assault on Syrian airbases and air defence assets. Aircraft operating from bases in Cyprus and from the Charles de gualle would have attempted to destroy Srian air force infrastructure probably supported by TLAM's fired from SSN's.
The Syrian airforce would almost certainly have flown to meet this threat.
You could expect to see Typhoon/Rafaels and MIG 29's engaging each other.

The superior hardwear/training/ISTAR/command and control of the British and French forces would mean that the most likely outcome would see the Syrian air force slowly ground down and within a few days no longer be in a position to offer more than a token resistance.
The Syrian navy's only chance of survival would be to remain either in port or very near the Syrian coastline and hope that UK/FR forces have higher priority targets.

The big question at this point would be will the UK and France confine themselves to keeping the remains of the Syrian air force on the ground or would they start hitting Syrian ground forces?
Either way for commanders on the ground the situation would look very grim.
Since the start of the Civil war desertion had become a very serious problem. The combination of the loss of air support and the prospect of real or imagined impending death at the hands of the RAF/Armee de l'air could easily crush morale and cause a tidal wave of desertion resulting in many units no longer being able to function due lack of manpower.

With the threat of air attack removed the Syrian opposition forces would be able to start behaving much more aggressively and in some areas start to roll back an already much weakened Syrian army.


thanks for reading more to follow regarding long term course of the civil war and reaction of other nations.
 

ian1246

MerryPrankster said:
If Parliament prevented Cameron from participating, could France go it alone?
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Not sure about French bases in the area. The Charles De Gaulle & taskforce on its own is a formidable force - but it would probably be reducing the intervention force by too much to risk it. So I'd say probably no - not without UK support or a Base to operate the rest of the airforce from.
 
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