What if Leonid Brezhnev is killed when the airplane carrying him to an official visit to Guinea is shot down by the French off the Algerian coast in 1961 (in OTL, though there were some warning shots, the plane landed safely in Morocco)?
"In return, according to unconfirmed sources, during the whole war the French fighters should have intercepted 38 and shot down nine aircraft while guarding the Morice Line, most of these in 1961. Many of these are known to have been transports of different origin: the oil exploitation in Sahara begun in the late 1950s, and a number of companies were active in Algeria and Libya, some of which operated aircraft on own behalf. Some of their pilots got disoriented over the featurless terrain, and ended over Algeria where they would be intercepted by AdA fighters. As already mentioned, the Morice Line was patrolled day and night by French aircraft of all possible types. Given that an increasing number of Soviet and other transport aircraft begun smuggling weapons into Algeria by the time, the French were especially sensitive to such incursions. A Soviet Il-14 was already intercepted by Mistral fighters over Algeria on 23 September 1960, and forced to land or shot down. Barely two months later, on 20 December, a Lebanon-registered DC-4 was intercepted at night by AdA Vautour interceptor from Normandie-Niemen Group, near Oran, and forced to land. The French found five tons of weapons on board, including bazookas and ammunition.
"On 9 February 1961, another Soviet Il-14--with Leonid Brezhnev, the future Soviet leader, on board--was intercepted off the Algerian coast, by French Mistral fighters. The aircraft was hit by gunfire but successfully evaded and later landed safely." http://www.acig.org/artman/publish/article_354.shtml
"February 9, 1961 (Thursday) An IL-18 plane carrying future Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev. At the time Brezhnev was the ceremonial President of the Soviet Union, to the Guinea Republic for a state visit, was attacked by three French Vautour fighter jets. One of the Vautours fired bursts of tracer bullets as a warning across. [10] The French Foreign Ministry apologized, but said that Brezhnev's plane, which landed safely in Morocco, had strayed into French Algerian airspace." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_1961#February_9.2C_1961_.28Thursday.29
On February 10, "Moscow protested against what it called 'a bandit attack' by a French jet fighter on an airliner carrying the Soviet chief of state, Leonid I. Brezhnev, to a state visit in Guinea. The strongly worded protest said the jet made three dangerously close passes and fired twice across the airliner's path."
http://www.jfklibrary.org/Research/.../New-York-Times-Chronology-February-1961.aspx
So suppose the plane carrying Brezhnev (who, as Chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet, was the closest thing the USSR had to a "president" or nominal head of state) had indeed been shot down and Brezhnev killed? No, I don't see the Soviets starting World War III over it, and indeed they will probably realize that they still have to support de Gaulle's policy of independence from the United States, but they do have to react in *some* way to the killing of a Politburo member who was also their nominal head of state. (And the Soviets were not given to accepting that sometimes things happen by accident--indeed, "it is not accidental" was a favorite formula in their political discourse.) Of course, even if there is no real crisis--just some very angry words, cancellation of some Franco-Soviet trade deals and cultural exchanges, etc.--there is the question of the long term effects of Brezhnev's death on Soviet politics...
"In return, according to unconfirmed sources, during the whole war the French fighters should have intercepted 38 and shot down nine aircraft while guarding the Morice Line, most of these in 1961. Many of these are known to have been transports of different origin: the oil exploitation in Sahara begun in the late 1950s, and a number of companies were active in Algeria and Libya, some of which operated aircraft on own behalf. Some of their pilots got disoriented over the featurless terrain, and ended over Algeria where they would be intercepted by AdA fighters. As already mentioned, the Morice Line was patrolled day and night by French aircraft of all possible types. Given that an increasing number of Soviet and other transport aircraft begun smuggling weapons into Algeria by the time, the French were especially sensitive to such incursions. A Soviet Il-14 was already intercepted by Mistral fighters over Algeria on 23 September 1960, and forced to land or shot down. Barely two months later, on 20 December, a Lebanon-registered DC-4 was intercepted at night by AdA Vautour interceptor from Normandie-Niemen Group, near Oran, and forced to land. The French found five tons of weapons on board, including bazookas and ammunition.
"On 9 February 1961, another Soviet Il-14--with Leonid Brezhnev, the future Soviet leader, on board--was intercepted off the Algerian coast, by French Mistral fighters. The aircraft was hit by gunfire but successfully evaded and later landed safely." http://www.acig.org/artman/publish/article_354.shtml
"February 9, 1961 (Thursday) An IL-18 plane carrying future Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev. At the time Brezhnev was the ceremonial President of the Soviet Union, to the Guinea Republic for a state visit, was attacked by three French Vautour fighter jets. One of the Vautours fired bursts of tracer bullets as a warning across. [10] The French Foreign Ministry apologized, but said that Brezhnev's plane, which landed safely in Morocco, had strayed into French Algerian airspace." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_1961#February_9.2C_1961_.28Thursday.29
On February 10, "Moscow protested against what it called 'a bandit attack' by a French jet fighter on an airliner carrying the Soviet chief of state, Leonid I. Brezhnev, to a state visit in Guinea. The strongly worded protest said the jet made three dangerously close passes and fired twice across the airliner's path."
http://www.jfklibrary.org/Research/.../New-York-Times-Chronology-February-1961.aspx
So suppose the plane carrying Brezhnev (who, as Chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet, was the closest thing the USSR had to a "president" or nominal head of state) had indeed been shot down and Brezhnev killed? No, I don't see the Soviets starting World War III over it, and indeed they will probably realize that they still have to support de Gaulle's policy of independence from the United States, but they do have to react in *some* way to the killing of a Politburo member who was also their nominal head of state. (And the Soviets were not given to accepting that sometimes things happen by accident--indeed, "it is not accidental" was a favorite formula in their political discourse.) Of course, even if there is no real crisis--just some very angry words, cancellation of some Franco-Soviet trade deals and cultural exchanges, etc.--there is the question of the long term effects of Brezhnev's death on Soviet politics...
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