Brezhnev killed by French, 1961 (plane shot down)

What if Leonid Brezhnev is killed when the airplane carrying him to an official visit to Guinea is shot down by the French off the Algerian coast in 1961 (in OTL, though there were some warning shots, the plane landed safely in Morocco)?

"In return, according to unconfirmed sources, during the whole war the French fighters should have intercepted 38 and shot down nine aircraft while guarding the Morice Line, most of these in 1961. Many of these are known to have been transports of different origin: the oil exploitation in Sahara begun in the late 1950s, and a number of companies were active in Algeria and Libya, some of which operated aircraft on own behalf. Some of their pilots got disoriented over the featurless terrain, and ended over Algeria where they would be intercepted by AdA fighters. As already mentioned, the Morice Line was patrolled day and night by French aircraft of all possible types. Given that an increasing number of Soviet and other transport aircraft begun smuggling weapons into Algeria by the time, the French were especially sensitive to such incursions. A Soviet Il-14 was already intercepted by Mistral fighters over Algeria on 23 September 1960, and forced to land or shot down. Barely two months later, on 20 December, a Lebanon-registered DC-4 was intercepted at night by AdA Vautour interceptor from Normandie-Niemen Group, near Oran, and forced to land. The French found five tons of weapons on board, including bazookas and ammunition.

"On 9 February 1961, another Soviet Il-14--with Leonid Brezhnev, the future Soviet leader, on board--was intercepted off the Algerian coast, by French Mistral fighters. The aircraft was hit by gunfire but successfully evaded and later landed safely." http://www.acig.org/artman/publish/article_354.shtml

"February 9, 1961 (Thursday) An IL-18 plane carrying future Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev. At the time Brezhnev was the ceremonial President of the Soviet Union, to the Guinea Republic for a state visit, was attacked by three French Vautour fighter jets. One of the Vautours fired bursts of tracer bullets as a warning across. [10] The French Foreign Ministry apologized, but said that Brezhnev's plane, which landed safely in Morocco, had strayed into French Algerian airspace." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_1961#February_9.2C_1961_.28Thursday.29

On February 10, "Moscow protested against what it called 'a bandit attack' by a French jet fighter on an airliner carrying the Soviet chief of state, Leonid I. Brezhnev, to a state visit in Guinea. The strongly worded protest said the jet made three dangerously close passes and fired twice across the airliner's path."
http://www.jfklibrary.org/Research/.../New-York-Times-Chronology-February-1961.aspx

So suppose the plane carrying Brezhnev (who, as Chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet, was the closest thing the USSR had to a "president" or nominal head of state) had indeed been shot down and Brezhnev killed? No, I don't see the Soviets starting World War III over it, and indeed they will probably realize that they still have to support de Gaulle's policy of independence from the United States, but they do have to react in *some* way to the killing of a Politburo member who was also their nominal head of state. (And the Soviets were not given to accepting that sometimes things happen by accident--indeed, "it is not accidental" was a favorite formula in their political discourse.) Of course, even if there is no real crisis--just some very angry words, cancellation of some Franco-Soviet trade deals and cultural exchanges, etc.--there is the question of the long term effects of Brezhnev's death on Soviet politics...
 
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What if Leonid Brezhnev is killed when the airplane carrying him to an official visit to Guinea is shot down by the French off the Algerian coast in 1961 (in OTL, though there were some warning shots, the plane landed safely in Morocco)?

What a PoD! Wow!

Massive hooraw, of course. The Soviets may refuse to believe it was an accident. They may retaliate by funneling arms into Algeria, or (if they blame De Gaulle personally) by providing assistance to the OAS's assassination plots against De Gaulle.

That of course could have explosive consequences should Kennedy be assassinated as OTL.

In any case, such retaliation might abort De Gaulle's schism with NATO and the U.S.
 
What a PoD! Wow!

Massive hooraw, of course. The Soviets may refuse to believe it was an accident. They may retaliate by funneling arms into Algeria, or (if they blame De Gaulle personally) by providing assistance to the OAS's assassination plots against De Gaulle.

That of course could have explosive consequences should Kennedy be assassinated as OTL.

In any case, such retaliation might abort De Gaulle's schism with NATO and the U.S.

I have a hard time seeing the Soviets align themselves with the violently anti-Communist OAS.
 
I have a hard time seeing the Soviets align themselves with the violently anti-Communist OAS.

The Enemy of my Enemy is my ally…

back to political Impact
The French Foreign Ministry apologized, but said that Brezhnev's plane had strayed into French Algerian airspace.

while Soviet not belief that Chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet, just died because of this.
With rising tension between France - Soviet union will have impact in France politic
the french Socialist and Communist will oppose President De Gaulle government

But what would politbureau do ?
breaking up the good relation between french with Soviet union and risking that France become Pro American ?
try to retaliation ?
that's dangerous political game, bring the down fall De Gaulle government and open the way that french Socialist and Communist form a new government
but if work, they Win France as pro Soviet state in Europe that has the NATO HQ in Paris...
 
I forgot

while the French Socalist and Communist scream murder and mayhem
prime minister Michel Debré and minister defense Pierre Guillaumat resign from office.

worst to come there is french Parliament election in 1962
I wonder will face De Gaulle a Socialist Prime minster ?
with pro soviet, socialist government in France, they could have closer relation with USSR as OTL.
 
Can the French realistically cover it up and convince the world the plane was lost to mechanical failure or other accidental cause rather than their interceptors?

I'm sure it would cross the mind of the French once they realised what had happened and who had been on board.
 
I have a hard time seeing the Soviets align themselves with the violently anti-Communist OAS.

The USSR armed Nasserite Egypt, Ba'ath Syria, and Ba'ath Iraq, all of which were anti-Communist.

Oh, and there was collaboration between the USSR and Fascist Italy (the USSR bought warships in Italy), between the USSR and the violently anti-Communist KMT in China, and of course between the USSR and Nazi Germany.

Besides which it wouldn't be overt, it would be secret. And it would be useful for the Soviets to have "right-wing fingerprints" on the action. Plausible deniability.
 
I have a hard time seeing the Soviets align themselves with the violently anti-Communist OAS.

If they're in it for the longhaul, then simple; create a hard Left front group to ally with the OAS. There must have been some dissident socialist colons who were up for a bit of mischief (Camus types gone bad!:D).

The reverse happened in another Francophone situation twenty years later. That's how US and British munitions made it to the Khmer Rouge's guerilla war against the Hun Sen regime.
 
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