Brest-Litovsk Alternatives

1 Lenin gets his way, and the oringinal treaty is signed, ceding only Poland and Lithuania. Do Finland and the Ukraine achieve independence, and who has the most influence over them: the Soviets, the Western Allies, or Germany?

2. Trotsky as Stalin. The Soviets fight on after the ultimatum of February 23.. That seems highly unlikely given the speed of the German advance, but perhaps they realis they have over-extended themselves, and still hope for the expected revolutions and perhaps Allied support. Which of the Civil War factions might side with them and which with the Germans, answer which will sit it out? Can they hold out long enough to prevent the Spring Offensive and bring about an early surrender on the Western Front?
 

CaliGuy

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1 Lenin gets his way, and the oringinal treaty is signed, ceding only Poland and Lithuania. Do Finland and the Ukraine achieve independence, and who has the most influence over them: the Soviets, the Western Allies, or Germany?

Finland, probably (due to the apparent pro-independence majority in the Finnish Parliament during this time). Ukraine, not sure; I suppose it depends on how much the Germans are willing to break their peace treaty with Russia to help Ukraine.

2. Trotsky as Stalin. The Soviets fight on after the ultimatum of February 23.. That seems highly unlikely given the speed of the German advance, but perhaps they realis they have over-extended themselves, and still hope for the expected revolutions and perhaps Allied support. Which of the Civil War factions might side with them and which with the Germans, answer which will sit it out?

That I am honestly unsure about; indeed, what did the Whites want more--an overthrow of the Bolsheviks or the expulsion of the Germans from Russia?

Can they hold out long enough to prevent the Spring Offensive and bring about an early surrender on the Western Front?

Probably not; after all, even if Russia doesn't surrender, it will almost certainly be sufficiently weak for Germany to be able to send massive amounts of its troops to the Western Front in the spring of 1918.
 
1 Lenin gets his way, and the oringinal treaty is signed, ceding only Poland and Lithuania. Do Finland and the Ukraine achieve independence, and who has the most influence over them: the Soviets, the Western Allies, or Germany?

The question about Finland is easy: Lenin et al gave their official consent to Finnish independence and recognized it in writing to a Finnish delegation in Petrograd already on December 31st 1917 (a confirmation was received from the All-Russian Central Executive Committee on January 4th 1918). The issue had then already been settled even as the Soviet-German negotiations were only just beginning.

The idea that formal Finnish independence was in the event directly tied to the Brest-Litovsk deal (when it in reality was an issue between Petrograd and Helsinki) is a common misconception I have had to correct many times on the forum...:)

It is another thing what happens to Finnish independence due and after the Finnish Civil War, then. But if (Soviet) Russian and German policies on Finland do not change significantly ITTL, it is likely that the Whites still win and Finland stays an independent non-Socialist state after 1918. Who will have most influence on Finland in the future will be dependent on how the events progress in 1918 and later. At first, like IOTL, there will be a struggle between Soviet and Russian influence during the civil war, with the Germans supporting the Whites and the Soviets the Reds. If the Whites win, Finland will be dominated by German influence until (and if) Germany loses the war. In case of an Allied win in the war, like IOTL, the Western powers will be more relevant. If the Reds win, Soviet power will be ascendant and it is very likely Finland is incorporated into Soviet Russia at some point in the next few years.
 
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