Breakaway states if Apartheid dies hard

Say Apartheid dies hard with South Africa collapsing into civil war in the early 1990s

What areas would try to breakaway as independent nations

How successfully would they be
 
I think a joint Zulu Indian state, in natal.
Perhaps a serious Afrikaner republic in Oraina, or James mitchners idea of an English Afrikaner, colored alliance in the cape.
 
You'll probably get an independent Cape state, an independent Zulu kingdom, and if things go really tits up, you'll get attempts to revive the Boer republics. There might even be irredentist movements to see the Sotho and Tswana areas of SA become part of Lesotho and Botswana, respectively.
 
Could the Ndebele also try to promote mugabes retirement earlier?
I know there were efforts to help Nkomo, and muzorewa in an anti zanu coalition.
The large Indian community couldn’t stand the land expropriation, willing buyer willing seller is different.
 
The surrounding(pun intended) states of Lesotho and Swaziland will be under pressure by whatever government is left in Pretoria to move ahead with plans to take over some South African territory and Black population. However, the international community is probably going to be pushing them not to accept that. I don't really know enough about the governments of those countries at the time to say whether they'd take the risk and accept the new land and people, but if they did that's some area covered, and one source of tension relived. A similar situation could take place with Botswana.

The Zulu areas are sort of an obvious one, although depending on the precise nature of the fall of the Apartheid government, they might ally more with the Whites in an effort to get land at the expense of their neighbors. A new Oranje Free State is definitely possible, but only if the AWB or a similar faction is a lot stronger and pushes for independence. That state, plus whatever White government, if any, exists in the Transvaal area, is going to try hard to secure sea access, either through a friendly/neutral Cape State, or the military acquisition of a place like East London.

Whatever states do arise are going to be fluid in the beginning. The SADF are going to be pulled in a lot of different directions, and organizations like the AWB will undoubtedly grow in number and begin acting as militias, in addition to analogous African groups.
 
That state, plus whatever White government, if any, exists in the Transvaal area, is going to try hard to secure sea access, either through a friendly/neutral Cape State, or the military acquisition of a place like East London.
Would they try through Durban or would they not in the hopes of an alliance with the Zulu factions ?
 
Would they try through Durban or would they not in the hopes of an alliance with the Zulu factions ?
I really don't know what'd happen with Durban. That's always the big tossup in these scenarios. If that's not an option for whatever reason then they'd have to look somewhere else.
 
I also think there would be a brutal conflict between the successor states over the mineral rich Highveld.

Nah, by the '80s the Highveld is done. More likely to be squabbling over platinum in what is today North-West, Limpopo, and northern Mpumalanga.
 
The surrounding(pun intended) states of Lesotho and Swaziland will be under pressure by whatever government is left in Pretoria to move ahead with plans to take over some South African territory and Black population. However, the international community is probably going to be pushing them not to accept that. I don't really know enough about the governments of those countries at the time to say whether they'd take the risk and accept the new land and people, but if they did that's some area covered, and one source of tension relived. A similar situation could take place with Botswana.

The Zulu areas are sort of an obvious one, although depending on the precise nature of the fall of the Apartheid government, they might ally more with the Whites in an effort to get land at the expense of their neighbors. A new Oranje Free State is definitely possible, but only if the AWB or a similar faction is a lot stronger and pushes for independence. That state, plus whatever White government, if any, exists in the Transvaal area, is going to try hard to secure sea access, either through a friendly/neutral Cape State, or the military acquisition of a place like East London.

Whatever states do arise are going to be fluid in the beginning. The SADF are going to be pulled in a lot of different directions, and organizations like the AWB will undoubtedly grow in number and begin acting as militias, in addition to analogous African groups.

I think the influence of the AWB is overstated. Even during apartheid they were pretty much considered a bunch of brandy-soaked rednecks (even by most other Afrikaners).

You mighr see Afrikaner militias arise, but they'll probably work more in concert with what is left of the SADF, rather than with the AWB.
 
You'll probably get an independent Cape state, an independent Zulu kingdom, and if things go really tits up, you'll get attempts to revive the Boer republics. There might even be irredentist movements to see the Sotho and Tswana areas of SA become part of Lesotho and Botswana, respectively.

How viable is an independent Cape state? From what I know, which isn't really a great deal, it seems like the economic heartland of South Africa already. It has a leg-up on industrialization and development, well over even any white-dominated breakaway states run as old-style "Boer republics." I could see an independent Western Cape being an overall successful state. It'd be interesting politically to see a nation mostly dominated by Cape Coloureds and black Africans in concert as well.
 
brandy-soaked rednecks (even by most other Afrikaners).

Not just that, but their religious fundamentalism is going to turn people off. To give you an idea, their stand in for the swastika is supposed to represent three sevens, which is supposed to be in opposition to the Number of the Beast (666).

A total break down of the South African state will be among racial and political lines. Religion is going to play a minimal part in the chaos. I see the AWB trying to set up a white ethnostate in predominantly Afrikaan areas, but like you just said, not many Afrikaans will follow them. A AWB-run ethnostate would be somewhat of a theocracy, with religion playing a part in the 'government'.
 
How viable is an independent Cape state? From what I know, which isn't really a great deal, it seems like the economic heartland of South Africa already. It has a leg-up on industrialization and development, well over even any white-dominated breakaway states run as old-style "Boer republics." I could see an independent Western Cape being an overall successful state. It'd be interesting politically to see a nation mostly dominated by Cape Coloureds and black Africans in concert as well.

It depends.

Are we just talking OTL Western Cape, or the whole old Cape province?

South Africa's economic heartland is actually around Johannesburg (Gauteng, the province which Jo'burg is in accounts for a third of total SA economic output). But the Western Cape is second (it accounts for about a fifth or a quarter of SA's economic output).

If we restrict it to the western half of the old Cape province (OTL Western Cape and Northern Cape) it could be feasible. The major ptoblem would be water and arable land.

The demographics would be interesting, coloureds would form a slight majority, or at least a plurality, with whites probably being the second largest ethnic group, with blacks making up a large minority.

There is actually a fringe political party advocating for Cape secession, will be interesting to see how they do in May's elections.
 
Not just that, but their religious fundamentalism is going to turn people off. To give you an idea, their stand in for the swastika is supposed to represent three sevens, which is supposed to be in opposition to the Number of the Beast (666).

A total break down of the South African state will be among racial and political lines. Religion is going to play a minimal part in the chaos. I see the AWB trying to set up a white ethnostate in predominantly Afrikaan areas, but like you just said, not many Afrikaans will follow them. A AWB-run ethnostate would be somewhat of a theocracy, with religion playing a part in the 'government'.

I don't know if Eugene Terre'blanche was a true believer.

I thin k a lot of his bible thumping was for show.

Any state run by the AWB is likely to be a heavily corrupt police state, I don't actually think it would be a theocracy (or no more than apartheid SA was).
 
Any state run by the AWB is likely to be a heavily corrupt police state, I don't actually think it would be a theocracy (or no more than apartheid SA was).

True, but I think to satisfy some of the AWB's most diehard followers, some aspect of religious authority will be implemented, if only to be paid lip service.
 
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