Breaching a completed Molotov Line

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The string of CoS's that followed him were the result of no one being able to properly fill his shoes. No one could work with Goering and/or Milch so were kicked out. The post-Jeschonnek (who survived for 4 years in that role) CoS's in the Luftwaffe all gained experience and prominence during the war, so weren't an option during the pre-war. Both Milch and Goering liked Wever, had a good working relationship with him (and the go between sometimes), and he had Hitler's ear. I cannot speak for what wartime would bring, but given that Jeschonnek survived in this role until 1943, I don't see why he would be kicked out any sooner, especially given that Jeschonnek had far worse people skills and had many more enemies than Wever. In fact I cannot name any powerful enemies that Wever had at the time of his death.

You are ready history backwards too, thinking that the same issues would creep up ITTL as IOTL that resulting in powerful people being removed. The LW was a different beast than the army, especially as Hitler didn't have the same direct, sustained contact he had with army officers. Wever was also a pretty outspoken Nazi and wasn't out of step with Hitler's foreign policy the same way Blomberg was. Perhaps something would happen to him as the result of a reaction at the Hossbach conference like it did with Blomberg, but Blomberg's fall was the result of specific circumstances that wouldn't apply to Wever. During wartime perhaps he can have a shouting match with Hitler as Guderian did, but that would be very out of line with his OTL behavior.

As to Milch sticking around, so long as the war is on Milch is safe in his position. He quickly proved himself capable in his job, so it would be politically dangerous to touch him before 1945. So Wever has no reason to be removed pre-war, baring something bizarre, which keeps Milch around until the war, during which he cannot be removed unless something equally bizarre happens, like IOTL when Milch tried to get Goering fired in 1944 and was instead toppled.


I was talking about COS throughout the entire wehrmacht, not just in the LW... when reverses happened or they criticized just too much, they got tossed. Wever in the long term (especially under war pressure) would have a hard time tolerating Milch's empire building and Goering's not taking the conflict seriously. Wever was a devout Nazi, but he wasn't a yes man, and non yes men got tossed once the shooting started (Guderian is the relevant example... and Wever would go before him because the LW experienced reverses earlier than the Heer)

Assuming Wever didn't build up enemies in the remaining prewar period (Milch is the obvious one as Wever wouldn't stand for all of his empire building and would get really pissed at him eventually), wartime would bring them as conflicts with combat commanders would grow frustrated with the LW's beauracracy and or think themselves better fit's for COS than Wever; Wever's counter responses to them with quotes from Mein Kempf are not going to improve things and he will eventually have to go, assuming the LW's first failures or high losses in the battle of britain (which are inevitable) don't lead to him getting housecleaned anyway

BTW as discussed, his support for the bomber A project was ultimately a really dumb idea and if played out with his living, would have been a dumb idea in practice

giving contracts to Heinkel for anything was among Germany's dumbest arms decisions
 

Deleted member 1487

I was talking about COS throughout the entire wehrmacht, not just in the LW... when reverses happened or they criticized just too much, they got tossed.
Not really in the LW. Jeschonnek presided over very serious failures and stayed around to shoot himself in 1943. As I said the LW was treated very different than the Heer in this regard.

Wever in the long term (especially under war pressure) would have a hard time tolerating Milch's empire building and Goering's not taking the conflict seriously.
I don't think so, Milch had his empire in 1936 already and they got along just fine. As it was Milch and Wever had divided up responsibilities prior because of this very issue and both worked just fine at it. Milch respected Wever unlike his replacements, so constantly encroached on their territory, partly because Milch thought Goering was a fool and the guy pulling the strings with Wever's replacements. He was also clawing back his authority that Udet had snatched away in 1936. Without Udet and Goering's direct interference in production via Udet, then Milch had every reason to keep the peace, especially as Milch could always appeal to Goering to push back, something Milch feared. In that regard Wever was no fool and could defend his turf very easily without getting bitter, which is why Milch respected him and generally left him alone. So long as Wever was alive production was Milch's business, while Wever and his crew handled military matters and they both collaborated on technology development quite well. Once the Pax-Wever was over, then Nazi political maneuvering injected itself in the RLM, so Milch started fighting to build an empire, because he had to to survive politically, especially after the Udet disaster left him fighting for his political life.

Wever was a devout Nazi, but he wasn't a yes man, and non yes men got tossed once the shooting started (Guderian is the relevant example... and Wever would go before him because the LW experienced reverses earlier than the Heer)
Sure, but then why did Jeschonnek survive so long? It could be argued he was a yes man, but given the immense failures of his tenure, he should have been tossed much earlier. I'm not saying that from 1940 that Wever wouldn't get in trouble and might get himself kicked, but it wasn't going to happen pre-war or at least until October 1940 with the Battle of Britain, if its analogue even happens here. Even then he's built up a ton of credit for the successes in Poland, Weserübung, and France, so it won't be all that easy to kick him over just one failure, especially with Barbarossa coming up. Barbarossa would be the place that could spell doom for him though, as I see the Moscow campaign as a major place he could get himself into trouble; we don't really know how he would have reacted, militarily or politically, perhaps he had enough political sense to keep his mouth shut and survive.

Assuming Wever didn't build up enemies in the remaining prewar period (Milch is the obvious one as Wever wouldn't stand for all of his empire building and would get really pissed at him eventually)
Milch and Wever were pretty chummy, much more so than Milch with anyone else. Milch in fact needed allies and couldn't topple Wever on his own; in fact Milch had painted himself into a corner by 1936, with Goering, though helping him with his Mischling status, still fearful the political threat Milch represented. So Milch needed to keep Wever happy to keep Goering at bay. But beyond that Milch already had his empire by 1936, so won't be forced for fight for another one as per OTL without Udet taking his away. Its kind of funny reading about how people say that Milch was very happy with Wever before he died, which Milch confirmed in the Irving biography (yes, I realize its flaws, but he had no reason to lie about his relationship with Wever).

, wartime would bring them as conflicts with combat commanders would grow frustrated with the LW's beauracracy and or think themselves better fit's for COS than Wever;
Who though had the gravitas that Wever did in the LW? No one that I can think of. Sure, there might be guys that covet his job, but he was so well respected that its hard to imagine anyone from below sabotaging him, like what happened in the Heer. The only threat really was from above. Goering would need Hitler's support to get rid of Wever and Hitler would need to be really furious to sack Wever, especially when he didn't with Jeschonnek; ultimately it was Jeschonnek's own shame and Goering's berating that had him shoot himself. Goering didn't even remove him after the Hamburg disaster.

Wever's counter responses to them with quotes from Mein Kempf
Where is that coming from? Yeah, he read it, but its not like he quoted it to people as gospel. There is an apocryphal story that the Ural Bomber project came from his readying of Mein Kampf, but Hooton and Homze have both debunked that story.

are not going to improve things and he will eventually have to go, assuming the LW's first failures or high losses in the battle of britain (which are inevitable) don't lead to him getting housecleaned anyway
Again, that didn't lead to Jeschonnek getting sacked, probably because of the credit he built up in Poland, Norway, and France. Also the BoB might not happen ITTL or be a failure as it was IOTL. Wever would have much more control over things, while the TOE would likely be somewhat different and more extensive than IOTL.

BTW as discussed, his support for the bomber A project was ultimately a really dumb idea and if played out with his living, would have been a dumb idea in practice
Bomber A or Ural Bomber? The He177 wouldn't have been a failure as a design without the divebombing requirement for one. It would have been very helpful, as the HE177B demonstrated when it actually flew. Without Udet the OTL 'B' version with 4 propellors and separate engines would have been entered testing in late 1938 and not have been ready for production until mid-1941 at the earliest. So given Milch and Wever's behavior regarding the failure of the Ural Bomber project, I think it wouldn't even enter production if it wasn't technically sufficient. In which case then Germany has huge capacity to turn to other aircraft. Hell, even if they kept it and it worked, it would be helpful in the east. Just avoiding the issues with the Ju88 in 1939 and sidestepping the Me210 disaster would have greatly helped production and operational aircraft numbers.

giving contracts to Heinkel for anything was among Germany's dumbest arms decisions
The HE111 worked out pretty well. I'm not sure the He177 was a bad project, but was very poorly run by Udet and by the time it was worked out in 1944 by Milch it was far too late.
 
Jeschonek was a yes man toadie (I don't see how Kesselring found him to be a genius), and yes men were shielded by their masters; Goering sacking him earlier would have involved looking in the mirror, a process he never really bothered with throughout the war


Milch and Wever's relationship was ok so long as Wever continued to be willing to patronize him (I honestly don't know how long one could continue to do that whilst simultaneously putting up with fat man's bullshit). You are right about transferring OTL events to an altered time line... it's hard for me to think of Milch NOT threatening to court marshal or send LW COS to concentration camps

I suppose it would depend on how abrasive (especially to the combat commanders) that Wever would be as the failures would pile up in terms of him making it past 1940. 7 years is a long LONG time to be COS in a service; retirement or transfer by that point might even be something he wants

the germans doing materially better in the BOB requires a fairly decent level of forsight and or Hitler/Fat Man not involving themselves in the campaign which is almost impossible... even if Wever pushed all the buttons correctly he wouldn't have an airforce capable of destroying the RAF and it's ground control interception system without prohibitive losses, and with the string of success in Poland and France, over confidence is inevitable

the ural bomber project was fine and the DO-19 should have been selected so the project could start as soon as possible (with corrections in design in between the prototype and squadron service stage done as well/quickly as possible) so the thing goes into service during the sitzkrieg, not after barbarossa starts. The investment for bomber A is going to be very difficult to justify or even accomplish once the shooting starts in earnest, as opposed to sticking with the DO-19 that gets a large part of the air base construction and crew training done before more important matters rise up

heinkles submissions to a number of contracts were crap over promise underdeliver... they were the lockheed of the LW
 

Deleted member 1487

Jeschonek was a yes man toadie (I don't see how Kesselring found him to be a genius), and yes men were shielded by their masters; Goering sacking him earlier would have involved looking in the mirror, a process he never really bothered with throughout the war
Jeschonnek would have been an excellent field commander or CoS of field unit; in fact if he had operated as a Richthofen, a field commander with CAS units, he would have been a genius; the problem is that he lacked interest in non-combat operations tasks, which made him a terrible CoS of the whole Luftwaffe. He was an excellent chief of operations as part of the general staff.
Goering did keep Jeschonnek around because he cow-towed to him, but that shouldn't have saved him when Hitler was brutally critiquing Goering in 1940-43. Goering hounded Jeschonnek for years, but couldn't bring himself to replace him with someone else, despite lots of yes-men being out there. So I don't think its was simply because he was a toadie, which he wasn't completely; I just think Goering was too lazy to find someone else until he was forced to. Prior the only way CoS's of the LW lost their job was by quitting, Goering did not fire a single one.

Milch and Wever's relationship was ok so long as Wever continued to be willing to patronize him (I honestly don't know how long one could continue to do that whilst simultaneously putting up with fat man's bullshit). You are right about transferring OTL events to an altered time line... it's hard for me to think of Milch NOT threatening to court marshal or send LW COS to concentration camps
Goering mostly stayed out of things until the war started. Milch could be handled, especially once the Jewish issue came up and Milch needed Wever more than Wever needed him. Once the LW general staff was made official in August 1936, which Goering did to limit Milch's power, Wever has the delineated powers in his realm, which he can easily defend thanks to Goering's proclamations. Milch was willing to help Wever IOTL when Wever helped him maintain control over his own realm (production).
Milch's OTL threats to Jeschonnek were over the increase in training deaths due to faulty equipment and training methods that Jeschonnek refused to investigate, because it would mean going against Udet, Goering's proxy.
Here that issue wouldn't come up as it did IOTL, because Wever was not as careless or tolerant of training losses as Jeschonnek was.

I suppose it would depend on how abrasive (especially to the combat commanders) that Wever would be as the failures would pile up in terms of him making it past 1940. 7 years is a long LONG time to be COS in a service; retirement or transfer by that point might even be something he wants
Or not.

the germans doing materially better in the BOB requires a fairly decent level of forsight and or Hitler/Fat Man not involving themselves in the campaign which is almost impossible... even if Wever pushed all the buttons correctly he wouldn't have an airforce capable of destroying the RAF and it's ground control interception system without prohibitive losses, and with the string of success in Poland and France, over confidence is inevitable
Not really; it requires better production, better management of development projects, and more pilots. All of that would have happened without Wever's death and Udet managing production and development.
Also you are assuming that Wever would have fought the BoB at all. Goering and Hitler went with that strategy because Jeschonnek didn't put anything forward; instead he waited for direction, rather than pushing a strategy, despite realizing the risks of such a strategy, especially as his own intelligence staff AND the commander tasked with devising a strategy to fight Britain suggested something different.

the ural bomber project was fine and the DO-19 should have been selected so the project could start as soon as possible (with corrections in design in between the prototype and squadron service stage done as well/quickly as possible) so the thing goes into service during the sitzkrieg, not after barbarossa starts. The investment for bomber A is going to be very difficult to justify or even accomplish once the shooting starts in earnest, as opposed to sticking with the DO-19 that gets a large part of the air base construction and crew training done before more important matters rise up
The more I read about the Ural Bomber aircraft they were not fine and would have required way too much development to be ready in 1940. The Do-19 was worse than nothing and required even more development than the Ju-89. It doesn't matter because Wever wanted to cancel the project and focus on the Bomber A. So no POD that I can think of would get the Ural Bomber in production. I agree with the Bomber A issue, though it would be very useful in 1942 on, as would having more Ju88s and Do217s.

So let's say that Wever survives in his job long enough to say no to the Bomber A and instead focuses on increasing other aircraft production. Germany benefits far more than IOTL saving the 1200 He177s of OTL.
They should have instead built more Do-26s as long range maritime recon for Uboats, of which they could have had over 100 in June 1940. They needed far less fuel and production resources/materials to operate. They could have operated out of Brest harbor instead of requiring Bordeaux landing strips, because all of the more northernly ones were occupied.

Without the dive requirement, they also could have had the Ju88 in production and service sooner too, which would have phased out the less useful Do17 by 1939 and increased overall numbers of Ju88s that were faster and cheaper/easier to make. More pilots would survive and could be rotated out of front line duty more regularly, preventing many of the accidents that cost lives and equipment in 1940-45. Frankly this aircraft should have been in production from March 1939 without the technical issues that kept it from being mass produced until 1940 (IIRC the OTL entire production for 1939 was 68). That matters far more than having a Do19 or Ju89. Having hundreds of Ju88s produced in 1939 and then over 1000 more than IOTL 1940 would make a serious difference in 1940-41. This would be before any decision needed to be made about the He177. It it were cancelled then Ju88 production could jump all the more in 1940-45 (alot more).


heinkles submissions to a number of contracts were crap over promise underdeliver... they were the lockheed of the LW
I'm not saying they were all winners or that there weren't issues with their designs, but to say that everything was useless is a gross oversimplifcation.
 
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The 1st armored left its armor in France when they evacuated except for a handful of tanks.

Although with the German advance now slowed by having too contain and defeat the BEF, they now might be able to get out with those tanks.

The psychological blow of losing some 200,000 combat troops all at once would be very hard on the British psyche.
But not to degree of seeking peace, especially once they see what kind of peace France gets.

The real issue at this point is politics and appearance, because if the British public lost the will to fight, then negotiations breakout and the war is going to end soon thereafter, provided the Germans don't ask for British territory or reparations.
What happens if it is the Italians who insist on taking British territory and Hitler insists on backing them?

No one said there wouldn't be a shot fired, but morale is a major factor in combat. Surrounded troops tend to surrender.
Or attempt a breakout... which the BEF could do: fight their way too the nearest port. Especially since the formations between them and the channel would be the most worn down of the lot.

Remember too its not just the British that are surrounded, but also the French; they didn't have supplies to last for more than a week with over 1 million troops in the pocket,
Your number is too high. Try 400,000.

I don't know what plentiful supplies mean to you, but what they had in the pocket would be unlikely to last more than a week.
More time then needed for the BEF to launch a break-out attempt too the channel.

Yes I am; Churchill did get the benefit of the doubt for the defeat in France because of that AND because he extracted the BEF.
The entire British war cabinet had already written off the BEF prior too Dunkirk. If it indeed were destroyed, it would be a shock but not that much of a shock.

Fear of averting an invasion
Which would have passed by the time negotiations even began.

and buying time to build up for a fight later when they were better prepared.
Which they have anyways, peace or no peace. They would be aware that confining Germany's power to Continental Europe benefits them as the United States becomes more and more involved.

Britain had nothing to lose by agreeing to a treaty they had no intention of abiding in the long term; they had plenty of history with that.
Well, except the prestige and trust in British power which was among the primary reasons they were considered a major European power.

Not to mention possibly Egypt, Gibraltar, and Malta.
 
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British evacuation: If the German push on into Dunkerque, there is still Ostend which the British would try harder to hold than OTL maybe even landing reinforcments there (the evacuated Calais garrison would be available). Likely the Germans could keep the bulk of the BEF from getting to the coast if they continued to push hard but it would be messy. The power of defence, especially German, backed up by air support and the Germans would probably be able to break up the British attacks which would be somewhat disorganized. I imagine though that the Germans would only have to delay the rest of France by about 3 to 5 days or so to reorganize, repair armor etc..

The British would after this disaster would ask Hitler what kind of terms. The British are going to be looking for some kind of 1914ish boundries that doesn't threaten their security long term, evenif it means German domination of Europe.

Maximum the German can get away with IMO (otherwise British refuse), and since this is early June the French are still in at this point both countries interests are taken into account (and the Italians are not yet in).
1) Germany gets 1914 boundries in the west
2) German gets Briery Basin for 20 years (kind of the Saar but in reverse)
3) French army greatly limited (100,000 men)
4) No French fortifications can be built.
5) No French naval contstruction for 10 years
6) Reparations equal to French 1938 military budget for 10 years
7) In exchange for not asking for her colonies back, the German domiation of Poland and the rest of eastern and central Europe is accepted.
8) Germany and Britain agrees to not complete any ships not already launched in June 1940. Britain accepts German domination of Baltic sea.
9) German can keep any war booty she has already captured including captured merchants.
10) In exchange for evacuation of occupied Norway, Belgium and Norway, Britain will allow resumption of German trade and return any siezed merchant vessels.
11) Germany can keep Liege and Luxembourg.

Hitler would be smart to take such a deal. No way Britain would sign a peace with Germany left controlling Belgium, Norway or Holland coasts.
 

Kongzilla

Banned
Hitler would refuse to evacuate Norway. And he would want more ships built by both the British and him. And it wouldn't matter if the Germans evacuated anyway they would still pretty much own the country. A puppet government would just rule instead until Hitler is ready to annex them. I don't think 1914 borders either since he wanted to bring France down to it's holy roman empire era size. But other than that it sounds pretty reasonable.
 
Hitler would refuse to evacuate Norway. And he would want more ships built by both the British and him. And it wouldn't matter if the Germans evacuated anyway they would still pretty much own the country. A puppet government would just rule instead until Hitler is ready to annex them. I don't think 1914 borders either since he wanted to bring France down to it's holy roman empire era size. But other than that it sounds pretty reasonable.

I agree Hitler would likely refuse to evacuate Norway and since Holy Roman empre boundries include a German occupied Belgium and Holland likely no peace is possible. (I would think the British would insist the previous governments be allowed to return.) Most western politicians viewed Hitler by this point as not somebody who you could deal with but as a modern day Genghis Khan where any peace with him had to have real military security behind it.
 
The power of defence, especially German, backed up by air support and the Germans would probably be able to break up the British attacks which would be somewhat disorganized.

The German's are somehow able to compensate for their shortage of spare parts, fuel, working vehicles, sufficient manpower to seal the pocket, and general lack of preparations for a defense against a concerted break out attempt?

The Germans may be good, but they are not wizards.

I imagine though that the Germans would only have to delay the rest of France by about 3 to 5 days or so to reorganize, repair armor etc..

More like a few weeks, once you factor in the additional losses suffered (trying) to contain a Breakout and crushing the pocket.

The British would after this disaster would ask Hitler what kind of terms.
The War Cabinet rejected the idea of negotiation even when it thought the BEF was doomed. If even only part of the BEF gets out, then that would be more then what the British were expecting.

Maximum the German can get away with IMO (otherwise British refuse), and since this is early June the French are still in at this point both countries interests are taken into account (and the Italians are not yet in).
The Italians entered the war on June 10th, the French did not ask for an armistice and terms until June 16th. The Italians are going to be at the negotiation table and therefore will be throwing a wrench in Germany's planning.

:snip terms:
The terms Hitler offers are not going to be this lenient. From his perspective, he has won... that means he more or less gets to dictate. He will not relinquish the occupation of Belgium or Holland and he certainly will press for an occupation of France, like IOTL. And he will probably back most demands that Italy will make.

This leads too British rejection and continued war.
 
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