Brazillian Civil War - 1889?

Hey Guys,

I'm not well-versed in Brazilian history however I do know that in 1889 Emperor Pedro II of Brazil was subject to a coup by 'Positivists', which he succumbed to without protest and when people attempted to convince him to fight back he merely dismissed the ideas and commented on how it was merely his "retirement".

However what if he decided (for some reason) to continue as Emperor and refuse to back down to military pressure? Would we see Brazil descend into civil war? If so would we see such clear factions as shown in both the American Civil War and Taiping Rebellion? Such as a north-south geographical divide?

If it did descend into Civil War how would it go for either side? it seems that while Pedro II had civilian support the oppositions seemed to have a lot of military support, so who would win? Etc.
 
I'll take a shot at it

From Wikipedia:
"Despite the fact the last four decades of Pedro II's reign were marked by continuous internal peace and economic prosperity, he personally had no desire to see the monarchy survive beyond his lifetime. As the Emperor grew older, he made no effort to maintain support for the institution. Since he lacked viable heirs (the next in line was his daughter Isabel, and both Pedro II and the ruling classes considered a female monarch unacceptable) the Empire's political leaders believed that there was no reason to defend the monarchy. Despite the lack of enthusiasm among most Brazilians for adopting a republican form of government, on 15 November 1889, after a 58-year reign, the Emperor was overthrown in a sudden coup d'etat that had almost no support outside a clique of military leaders whose goal was the formation of a republic headed by a dictator."

What if you start by:
1) having a Son who is very interested in becoming Emperor instead of a Daughter who is not to worried about it. This is key, if the Royal Family had shown any enthusiasim for staying a Royal Family, they probably would have won.
2) The National Gaurd Revitalization startes much earlier, say 1880 instead of 1889 (they'll be one side of the war, with the Army on the other side)

Now we just need to figure out the territories. I'm thinking a reactionary Northern group of Republicans against a group of loyalist Southern Monarchists.
 
From Wikipedia:
"Despite the fact the last four decades of Pedro II's reign were marked by continuous internal peace and economic prosperity, he personally had no desire to see the monarchy survive beyond his lifetime. As the Emperor grew older, he made no effort to maintain support for the institution. Since he lacked viable heirs (the next in line was his daughter Isabel, and both Pedro II and the ruling classes considered a female monarch unacceptable) the Empire's political leaders believed that there was no reason to defend the monarchy. Despite the lack of enthusiasm among most Brazilians for adopting a republican form of government, on 15 November 1889, after a 58-year reign, the Emperor was overthrown in a sudden coup d'etat that had almost no support outside a clique of military leaders whose goal was the formation of a republic headed by a dictator."

What if you start by:
1) having a Son who is very interested in becoming Emperor instead of a Daughter who is not to worried about it. This is key, if the Royal Family had shown any enthusiasim for staying a Royal Family, they probably would have won.
2) The National Gaurd Revitalization startes much earlier, say 1880 instead of 1889 (they'll be one side of the war, with the Army on the other side)

Now we just need to figure out the territories. I'm thinking a reactionary Northern group of Republicans against a group of loyalist Southern Monarchists.
Ah interesting, so if his OTL 2 year old son Afonso survived we could see a set division within the nation?

Also the irony of the South being loyalist is that in the 1830's (I believe) there was a Republican rebellion in the south against the economic stance the North took :rolleyes::p
 
Ok, just some facts:
1) having a Son who is very interested in becoming Emperor instead of a Daughter who is not to worried about it.
Isabel was worried about it. She was probably more interested in politics than the Emperor himself. Her main problem was that she managed to piss both the Liberals (by being an Ultramontan biggoted Catholic) and the Conservatives (by defending the end of slavery). Also, the fact that her French husband was hated by the Army and most of the intelectuals didn't help too.
This is key, if the Royal Family had shown any enthusiasim for staying a Royal Family, they probably would have won.

I'm not so sure. Yes, people respected the Imperial family. But would they be willing to die for them? I mean, most of the officers in the Army felt they had duties more towards their own fellow in arms than to the goverment or the Imperial family. I really can't see how much successful would civilians (and the only ones who would care about defending the Empire by then would be mostly poor blacks) fare against the Army.

2) The National Gaurd Revitalization startes much earlier, say 1880 instead of 1889 (they'll be one side of the war, with the Army on the other side)
Maybe, but it could only mean that the Army becomes more suspicious of the monarchy earlier.

Now we just need to figure out the territories. I'm thinking a reactionary Northern group of Republicans against a group of loyalist Southern Monarchists.
Why do you think that? Republicanism was quite widespread by then in all provinces, and in the South it was probably stronger. After all, the goddamn Júlio de Castilhos was from Rio Grande do Sul.
 
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Ok, just some facts:

Isabel was worried about it. She was probably more interested in politics than the Emperor himself. Her main problem was that she managed to piss both the Liberals (by being an Ultramontan biggoted Catholic) and the Conservatives (by defending the end of slavery). Also, the fact that her French husband was hated by the Army and most of the intelectuals didn't help too.

Well, perhaps she could not adhere to one or the other position. That is a common path to take in ATLs, after all. Perhaps she could marry better, convince her father that she would be a suitable Empress (pointing to strong female rulers, like Victoria or Elizabeth--well, Portugal has been allied to Britain--and perhaps ones from Portuguese history or mythology), or take other steps to make her an acceptable successor.

Why do you think that? Republicanism was quite widespread by then in all provinces, and in the South it was probably stronger. After all, the goddamn Júlio de Castilhos was from Rio Grande do Sul.

This need not be the case in an ATL, though. Why did Republicanism develop? Who supported it? What actions could have been taken to placate or suppress those feelings?

TheNordicBrit has already suggested the survival of Afonso, which would surely have a large impact (especially considering that there were 40 years where Dom Pedro II ruled after that--surely just having someone else who could influence him a little would have a massive impact!)
 
Actually, i think that if Pedro II stood up against the coup, by rallying a few officers- how about Deodoro da Fonseca, a staunch monarchist which turned overnight into the first President of Brazil? We can say his ideology was Opportunism:p- the monarchy would actually survive without need for a very bloody civil war, and in fact for a civil war at all, since the monarchy was popular among the populace and especially the recently freed slaves.
What would happen after Pedro's death(in OTL he succumbed to depression after having to leave his beloved Brazil, and died in 1891; without the exile he would probably live until 1895 at the very least) is an entirely different matter.
 
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