Brazilian WI: Juarez Távora defeats Juscelino Kubitschek in 1955?

[Vinization]

The 1955 Brazilian presidential election was pretty close: Juscelino Kubitschek, one of Getúlio Vargas' many political heirs and candidate of PSD and PTB, defeated UDN's Juarez Távora by a margin of just 5%, or roughly 400.000 out of 9 million votes. Távora's campaign was hampered by two main issues: first, it took a relatively long time for him to throw his hat into the ring, since he initially gave up on running for the top spot before finally deciding otherwise. Secondly, Plínio Salgado (of Integralist fame) was a presidential candidate too, and he received several hundred thousand votes that would otherwise have gone to Távora (8% in total, bigger than the gap separating Távora and Kubitschek's numbers).

So what if Távora was committed to running for the presidency from the get go and Salgado stayed out of the race for whatever reason, ensuring that an UDN candidate enters the halls of Catete Palace for the first time since the party's creation in 1945? How different would Távora's administration be from Kubitschek's? I assume Brasília's construction will at least be delayed ITTL, can it be put off for good? What will the economy look like by 1960, and, lastly, would Távora have a majority in Congress?

@Gukpard @Guilherme Loureiro @ByzantineCaesar @Paraiba @John I of Brazil @Kaiser of Brazil

 

[Gukpard]

The 1955 Brazilian presidential election was pretty close: Juscelino Kubitschek, one of Getúlio Vargas' many political heirs and candidate of PSD and PTB, defeated UDN's Juarez Távora by a margin of just 5%, or roughly 400.000 out of 9 million votes. Távora's campaign was hampered by two main issues: first, it took a relatively long time for him to throw his hat into the ring, since he initially gave up on running for the top spot before finally deciding otherwise. Secondly, Plínio Salgado (of Integralist fame) was a presidential candidate too, and he received several hundred thousand votes that would otherwise have gone to Távora (8% in total, bigger than the gap separating Távora and Kubitschek's numbers).

So what if Távora was committed to running for the presidency from the get go and Salgado stayed out of the race for whatever reason, ensuring that an UDN candidate enters the halls of Catete Palace for the first time since the party's creation in 1945? How different would Távora's administration be from Kubitschek's? I assume Brasília's construction will at least be delayed ITTL, can it be put off for good? What will the economy look like by 1960, and, lastly, would Távora have a majority in Congress?

@Gukpard @Guilherme Loureiro @ByzantineCaesar @Paraiba @John I of Brazil @Kaiser of Brazil

Here some of his promises

He promises legalism, austerity against inflation and fight against corruption

According to the Memorial da Democracia he was expected to lose and it was a surprise that he did so well, as he had little contact with the public. From what I can presume with the little I know is that he would try to roll back worker's rights, cut funding for the industry to cool the economy and be remembered as a "second Dutra" as a boring, unpopular but not hated president.

 

[dentista campora]

He promises legalism, austerity against inflation and fight against corruption

*i get crushed by the weight of history before i can make any comments*

 

[Vinization]

Here some of his promises

He promises legalism, austerity against inflation and fight against corruption

According to the Memorial da Democracia he was expected to lose and it was a surprise that he did so well, as he had little contact with the public. From what I can presume with the little I know is that he would try to roll back worker's rights, cut funding for the industry to cool the economy and be remembered as a "second Dutra" as a boring, unpopular but not hated president.

Do you think there's a risk Petrobras could be dismantled or privatized during a Távora administration?

 

[Gukpard]

Do you think Petrobras would be in trouble during a Távora administration?

The nationalization of strategical resources come from a army doctrine created by General Góes Monteiro and it was a consensus of the army, so it won't be privatized, but surely it is going to be ignored. The brazilian oil sucks as it is the kind of oil you use to make tar streets or "óleo de máquina", so it has to go through an expensive process to be converted into gas and a pro austerity government like Távora one wouldn't have the stomach for spending the money in it.

 

[tonycat77]

Probably no inflation or debt that helped destabilize the economy in the early 60s, no legacy of spending billions of $ in pharonic but useless projects.

No Brasília would be a big hit on international prestige and the economic developed of the Midwest, but the money could had been spent elsewhere.

No focus on highway construction, so we would still have continued to have passenger trains and railroad construction wouldn't be sidelined until the early 2000s.

 

[Vinization]

No focus on highway construction, so we would still have continued to have passenger trains and railroad construction wouldn't be sidelined until the early 2000s.

I'm not so sure of that, since Brazil had (and still has) something like five different railway gauges.