Brazilian WI: Getúlio Vargas wins the 1930 election?

[Vinization]

As with all elections during the Old Republic, the 1930 presidential race was less a matter of campaigning and more of making alliances with the powerful oligarchic groups that controlled their respective states, thanks to rampant fraud.

Júlio Prestes won this dispute easily, thanks in no small part to the support of incumbent president Washington Luís. He never took office, of course, since Getúlio Vargas and his allies launched the Revolution of 1930 and put an end to the Old Republic, kicking off the 15 year long Vargas Era.

My question is, was there any way Getúlio could've gotten the support of more states (especially juicy ones like Pernambuco and Bahia), had circumstances been different somehow? Assuming he manages to become president without a revolution, would he be able to put his reformist agenda in motion?

@Gukpard

 

[Gukpard]

As with all elections during the Old Republic, the 1930 presidential race was less a matter of campaigning and more of making alliances with the powerful oligarchic groups that controlled their respective states, thanks to rampant fraud.

Júlio Prestes won this dispute easily, thanks in no small part to the support of incumbent president Washington Luís. He never took office, of course, since Getúlio Vargas and his allies launched the Revolution of 1930 and put an end to the Old Republic, kicking off the 15 year long Vargas Era.

My question is, was there any way Getúlio could've gotten the support of more states (especially juicy ones like Pernambuco and Bahia), had circumstances been different somehow? Assuming he manages to become president without a revolution, would he be able to put his reformist agenda in motion?

@Gukpard

I don't think the old republic ever would allow Vargas to win. He was not a paulista nor a mineiro.

 

[Vinization]

I don't think the old republic ever would allow Vargas to win. He was not a paulista nor a mineiro.

He was supported by Minas Gerais, plus Hermes da Fonseca was a gaúcho and still won. With Nilo Peçanha and Pinheiro Machado's help, sure, but still.

 

[Vinization]

I do agree, however, that a drastic POD would be required, something like Washington Luís being assassinated by an angry anarchist or whatever.

 

[Belka DNW]

For starters he wouldn't have all the power to enact all the changes he did IOTL, taking this into account I believe he would try to empower anti-oligarch groups to kill the Old Republic, maybe create and feed an edge between the land owners and the small industrialist class.

 

[Belka DNW]

If he succedes in empowering said anti-oligarch groups we might see a 1935 Coup Revolution if he can't be reelected legally.

 

[Vinization]

For starters he wouldn't have all the power to enact all the changes he did IOTL, taking this into account I believe he would try to empower anti-oligarch groups to kill the Old Republic, maybe create and feed an edge between the land owners and the small industrialist class.

I figured that's how he'd act, plus using federal funds to bribe congresspeople into voting for an electoral reform that establishes secret ballots and whatnot.