Brazilian WI: Fernando Henrique Cardoso became mayor of São Paulo in 1985?

Vinization · Jul 4, 2021

Nine years before he ran for (and won) the presidency of Brasil, Fernando Henrique Cardoso (or just FHC) ran for mayor of São Paulo. However, although he led the polls from day one right up until election day, he was narrowly defeated by former president Jânio Quadros in a huge upset.

What if he won and became mayor of the largest city in South America? Would he do a better job than Quadros did (I assume the answer is yes), and how would his political career be affected? Would he still help found PSDB, along with guys like Mário Covas and José Serra?

@ByzantineCaesar @Gukpard @Miguel Lanius @Guilherme Loureiro

Gukpard · Jul 4, 2021

Vinization said:
What if he won and became mayor of the largest city in South America?

So he's elected in 1985? By 1990 São Paulo will look like this

Now, jokes apart - a joke built with a bit of truth in the background -, There would be earlier privatizations on the capital and the city will be used as a model for when privatizations start on national scale when Collor is elected

Life gonna get harsher earlier with the massive layoffs and privatizations on the capital, but the overral city GDP will go up

This might trigger people like Ciro Gomes to leave the PSDB earlier than OTL

Vinization · Jul 4, 2021

Gukpard said:
So he's elected in 1985? By 1990 São Paulo will look like this

Now, jokes apart - a joke built with a bit of truth in the background -, There would be earlier privatizations on the capital and the city will be used as a model for when privatizations start on national scale when Collor is elected

Life gonna get harsher earlier with the massive layoffs and privatizations on the capital, but the overral city GDP will go up

This might trigger people like Ciro Gomes to leave the PSDB earlier than OTL

You sure? FHC wasn't the same man he would become in 1994, and PMDB was still a genuine big tent party with multiple wings instead of, well, what it is today.

If it goes like you say it would, I could see Luisa Erundina getting a majority in the city council if she's still elected in 1988. That alone would make her mayoralty a lot more popular - since she'd be able to enact more of her proposals - and give Maluf a harder time against Eduardo Suplicy in 1992.

Gukpard · Jul 4, 2021

Vinization said:
You sure? FHC wasn't the same man he would become in 1994

Time to call for professional help, then!

I summon you, oh great @Guilherme Loureiro

Guilherme Loureiro · Jul 5, 2021

Easiest way of having FHC win is by that journalist not asking him a question about religion(or was it God? I don't remember right now) just before the election. São Paulo's electors weren't happy to find out the leading candidate for mayor was an avowed atheist(although, to be frank, given FHC ideological record, what did they expect?).

As for what would FHC be as mayor, I suspect he would be either Erundina-lite or Erundina-avant-la-lettre; back then he wouldn't be... too favorable to compromising with more centrist or rightist policies(you can bet that losing that election taught him to do so). And that would mean a Maluf victory in the following election; São Paulo City has a history of wanting change and electing leftist candidates, only to have buyer's remorse and go back to electing rightists(or centrists) in the next election. Such was what happened to Erundina, to Marta Suplicy and to Haddad.

It's also interesting to remember that of those three only Haddad was able to run for president later, and that was because of rather atypical circumstances(to say the least). I don't think FHC would have the political capital to become Finance Minister in 1993(I'm not sure whether he would become Foreign Minister in 1992 or not, though). President Mário Covas, maybe?

Vinization · Jul 5, 2021

Guilherme Loureiro said:
As for what would FHC be as mayor, I suspect he would be either Erundina-lite or Erundina-avant-la-lettre; back then he wouldn't be... too favorable to compromising with more centrist or rightist policies(you can bet that losing that election taught him to do so). And that would mean a Maluf victory in the following election; São Paulo City has a history of wanting change and electing leftist candidates, only to have buyer's remorse and go back to electing rightists(or centrists) in the next election. Such was what happened to Erundina, to Marta Suplicy and to Haddad.

I'm not be so sure Maluf would win in 1988, since mayor FHC would probably enjoy the backing of the City Council and the state governorship, something the three petista mayors did not have AFAIK.

Guilherme Loureiro said:
It's also interesting to remember that of those three only Haddad was able to run for president later, and that was because of rather atypical circumstances(to say the least). I don't think FHC would have the political capital to become Finance Minister in 1993(I'm not sure whether he would become Foreign Minister in 1992 or not, though). President Mário Covas, maybe?

Maybe FHC becomes governor of São Paulo in 1990? I don't see him becoming president with just that post though, since neither Serra nor Alckmin made that leap (there were other factors too, of course). Assuming Covas becomes president in 1994, would he push the amendment allowing executive reelection, assuming his cancer doesn't flare up earlier?

Guilherme Loureiro · Jul 5, 2021

Vinization said:
I'm not be so sure Maluf would win in 1988, since mayor FHC would probably enjoy the backing of the City Council and the state governorship, something the three petista mayors did not have AFAIK.

Maybe FHC becomes governor of São Paulo in 1990? I don't see him becoming president with just that post though, since neither Serra nor Alckmin made that leap (there were other factors too, of course). Assuming Covas becomes president in 1994, would he push the amendment allowing executive reelection, assuming his cancer doesn't flare up earlier?

Not having the aldermen support them was certainly a problem, but I don't think it was the greatest problem for the three of them(like it was for Saturnino Braga in Rio, at about the same time); it was having their proposed measures being portrayed as being out of touch with what the population wanted - this was particularly so for Haddad, but also went for Erundina and Suplicy. The more I think about it, the more I think that the comparison with Haddad would be more apt; it would have been fairly easy for his enemies to paint FHC as an ivory tower academic whose 'bright ideas' do more harm than good to São Paulo's population.

As for FHC, if he doesn't do well as mayor, he won't have a chance of being State Governor. Regarding Covas, I'm not sure he would push a reelection amendment(and in retrospect, if he doesn't, it would have been better); that depends on when he knew about his cancer(according to Wikipedia, hos first surgery to try to remove it was on December 1998).