Brazilian WI: Brizola recreates PTB in 1980?

[Vinization]

Following the amnesty law of August 1979, Leonel Brizola returned from exile the following month with the intention of recreating the Brazilian Labour Party (PTB) as it existed before the 1964 coup d'état. However, he got into a judicial dispute with Ivete Vargas (Getúlio Vargas' great-niece) and the party's name was given to her instead, turning what could've been a powerful left-wing force into an insignificant, conservative one (and literally driving him to tears).

What if Brizola and his allies were a little bit luckier (the source I'm using says Ivete submitted her wish to register PTB a week before Brizola did, so let's swap that) and he brings PTB back to its original roots while also adding a bit of socialism and social democracy to it. How does this affect the redemocratization process? He had a lot of prestige thanks to his deeds before the dictatorship was formed, so with PTB under his control I assume his stature would be even greater ITTL.

Could the butterflies that result from this give Alceu Collares a chance be elected governor of Rio Grande do Sul in 1982? He got a respectable third place (22% of the vote) IOTL. Also, IOTL the dictorship only retained control of the Chamber of Deputies after 1982 thanks to an agreement with Ivete and her followers in the PTB she created, so could they lose control of the lower house of Congress, which would probably be presided by Ulysses Guimarães ITTL? Could that give Dante de Oliveira's amendment a chance to pass, allowing the Brazilian people to elect their president in 1985 instead of having to wait until 1989?

@Gukpard @Guilherme Loureiro

 

[KingSweden24]

This is a really neat idea; I’ve been trying to find a hook for getting a Brizola comeback in my 1980s TL and this works well.

i imagine there’s a LOT more juice behind Diretas Ja in this case, then? Maybe Guimarães is the face of the 1985 campaign and a new era rather than the ailing Neves

 

[Vinization]

This is a really neat idea; I’ve been trying to find a hook for getting a Brizola comeback in my 1980s TL and this works well.

i imagine there’s a LOT more juice behind Diretas Ja in this case, then? Maybe Guimarães is the face of the 1985 campaign and a new era rather than the ailing Neves

I think that would depend on how much the results of the 1982 elections are affected. The opposition came close to winning four governorships they lost IOTL (Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso, Pernambuco and Santa Catarina), which means they would also get four extra seats in the Senate thanks to the bound vote. They also had a respectable showing in Alagoas (they got 44% of the vote there), so perhaps a sympathy boost from having Teotônio Vilela's cancer kill him earlier could carry the PMDB candidate there over the line.

 

[KingSweden24]

I think that would depend on how much the results of the 1982 elections are affected. The opposition came close to winning four governorships they lost IOTL (Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso, Pernambuco and Santa Catarina), which means they would also get four extra seats in the Senate thanks to the bound vote. They also had a respectable showing in Alagoas (they got 44% of the vote there), so perhaps a sympathy boost from having Teotônio Vilela's cancer kill him earlier could carry the PMDB candidate there over the line.

Interesting. That definitely opens a whole can of worms; wonder if ARENA just sees the writing on the wall at that point and Diretas Ja gets butterflied entirely?

 

[Vinization]

Interesting. That definitely opens a whole can of worms; wonder if ARENA just sees the writing on the wall at that point and Diretas Ja gets butterflied entirely?

I don't think it's possible for some kind of popular mobilization to not happen as soon as Dante de Oliveira or someone else submits the amendment, but I can definitely see Figueiredo giving up and letting it happen instead of not-so-subtly threatening the legislature by having the army parade in the surroundings of the Congress Palace.

 

[KingSweden24]

So many

I don't think it's possible for some kind of popular mobilization to not happen as soon as Dante de Oliveira or someone else submits the amendment, but I can definitely see Figueiredo giving up and letting it happen instead of not-so-subtly threatening the legislature by having the army parade in the surroundings of the Congress Palace.

things happen in history simply by the writing being seen on the wall

 

[tomiasdesd]

definitly the varguist form of leftism stays strong in Brazil
on the 82 elections, the real issue is that the opposition was divided between Simon and Collares, whilst the pro dictatorship wing was pretty much united in Jair Soares. What this means is that it would probably take more votes from Simon, but not from Soares, giving him an even bigger difference imo (this is just based on a wikipedia reading so not so trustworthy). I could see Pernambuco ans Santa Catarina going MDB however, with no OTL PTB and the support of Brizola's PTB. Im also not so sure on Mato Grosso, Júlio Campos won a literal majority.
Similarly to the case in RS, could this rather screw over the opposition by dividing their votes in some other places?
Tbh im not so sure Ivete Vargas would just accept this, would she maybe create her own party?

 

[Dan1988]

Hmm, just wondering - if the PTB gets resurrected (either through swapping the registration dates and/or Brizola and Ivete Vargas making up, somehow), what becomes of the MDB? After all, the movement that made both the PTB and PDT possible IOTL was as a way by the dictatorship to weaken support for the MDB and channel it to ARENA (> PDS) instead, and much of the MDB's core originally came from the PTB (and the PSD). That strategy obviously failed with the formation of the PMDB, obviously, but if the PTB emerges as a viable force (particularly as a result of the 1982 elections), could it be possible to redirect the (P)MDB's energies towards eventually engineering a split where much of it merges with the PTB?

(In turn, what eventually became the PSDB IOTL could be split between the PTB and both a recreated Christian Democratic Party in the Latin American (and specifically Southern Cone) tradition, such as Chile's and Uruguay's own PDCs, and a recreated PSB to cover any left-wing dissent to the (P)MDB's merger with the PTB. Consequently, the PDC here could be the main successor to the pre-1964 PSD, hence therefore avoiding the merger with ARENA/PDS, but if Direitas Ja is still happening, the avoidance of the OTL PDC's merger with the PDS is definitely not going to impact the split in the PDS between pro-Direitas Ja and anti-Direitas Ja factions, unless if the split is so profound the PDS effectively dissolves itself.)