Brazilian Uruguay/Cisplatina and Misiones, Surviving Entre Rios

The Republic of Entre Rios was a brief Republic in Argentina's Entre Rios and Corrientes provinces from 1820 to 1821 led by General Francisco Ramirez. Ultimately he was assassinated and the republic was reabsorbed into Argentina.

What if, with Brazilian support, the Republic survived and (due to the buffer) Brazil managed to hold on to Cisplatina (Uruguay) and grab the provinces of Misiones (giving Brazil two solid river ports)?
 
About the only major butterflies I can envision would be altering the Paraguayan war, or stirring up a war between Argentina and Brazil. The POD doesn't really change the power structure of the region, or progression of events in any of the countries (except, obviously, one tiny country created and one tiny country extinguished). Losing Entre Rios/Corrientes/Missiones doesn't have any significant consequences for Argentina in the same vein as losing Silesia did for Austria, and gaining/keeping Uruguay doesn't have any for Brazil same way gaining/keeping Silesia did for Prussia. People (such as Urquiza) and hence events will change and this may possibly have huge consequences, but nothing obviously predictable.
 
Would having the ports of Montevideo and Posadas not be a gamechanger for Brazil? I'd think it'd allow earlier economic exploitation of the interior of the country and greater access to global trade.
 
my understanding is that the interior was hindered more by restriction from Paraguay than by lack of a port at Montevideo. Ocean going vessels could make it to the Brazil/Paraguay border and beyond IF they were allowed transit.

the bandeirantes were great at exploration, but Brazilian population didn't really migrate around much, so the remote interior was slow to populate/develop. I doubt Montevideo makes much of a difference. Just holding Uruguay doesn't generate all the changes necessary to foster a massive change in development. Posadas is a non factor.
 
Ramirez wanted to support the Banda Oriental against Brazil...but assuming that Brazil does somehow establish a puppet regime in Entre Rios, you'd soon see an Argentine attempt to liberate the province just as they later supported Uruguay against Brazil. Whether Brazil could win this conflict (when they didn't historically) is another question.

That said, if we assume that Brazil does form a lasting satellite state in the Argentine litoral, then their annexation of Uruguay would be easier to maintain and Paraguay would be less able to block Brazil from the Parana river. Access to this and the Uruguay River would allow Brazil better and earlier access to its own interior.

Game changer though? Certainly a gamechanger for Argentina, where without the opposition of the litoral provinces Buenos Aires likely dominates the nation with little difficulty. This could end their civil wars probably decades before they achieved unity historically. For Brazil, they don't really need those ports. They had their own upriver, but for several reasons were slow to exploit their interior. Cisplatinia could be a future stronghold of republicanism, however, which could lead to an earlier end to the Empire of Brazil.
 
Brazil failed in dominating their own caudillos, so even if they could conquer the whole confederation and Europe didn't care (which they certainly would), it would be practically impossible for them to stop the first great landowner with the opportunity to rally the spanish-speaking folks against Brazil and regain Independence.
 
Remember that Francisco Ramírez fought against Brazil in the Platine War, and was actively fighting for freeing the Banda Oriental from Brazil. He would not accede to become a client state or any kind of support from Brazil.

The Republic of Entre Rios was not really an independentist state, but rather a rebellion against centralization of power in Buenos Aires. It even attempted to make Paraguay rejoin the Argentine Confederation and help him defeat the Brazilians in the Banda Oriental; when he was refused he actually tried to invade Paraguay. If Entre Rios was invaded, I think there would be an effort by Buenos Aires and the rest of the provinces to repel the Brazilians, much like the Platine war. It all depends on who's on charge, and I'm a little rusty on my civil wars history at the moment. After Ramírez and the end of the Republic, Entre Ríos still acted, like most of Argentina's provinces at the time, as an independent state loosely bound by interprovincial treaties.

Any change at this time could result in a completely different Argentine Civil War(s). The unification of the nation might happen sooner having Brazil as a common enemy. I doubt Brazilians could advance beyond the Paraná, and I think Paraguay would have been involved, seeing as, while they were plotting an independent course, Brazil would be an inmediate threat to both Argentina and Paraguay.

Would having the ports of Montevideo and Posadas not be a gamechanger for Brazil? I'd think it'd allow earlier economic exploitation of the interior of the country and greater access to global trade.

Posadas was an undeveloped town, and to reach it from the river is nearly impossible because of the Iguazú falls. Montevideo is a good port and has much potential, but Brazil isn't lacking on Altantic ports. In fact the city might have less development due to hostile relations with its traditional parterns in the Rio de La Plata. It could become a major regional capital though.

About the only major butterflies I can envision would be altering the Paraguayan war, or stirring up a war between Argentina and Brazil. The POD doesn't really change the power structure of the region, or progression of events in any of the countries (except, obviously, one tiny country created and one tiny country extinguished). Losing Entre Rios/Corrientes/Missiones doesn't have any significant consequences for Argentina in the same vein as losing Silesia did for Austria, and gaining/keeping Uruguay doesn't have any for Brazil same way gaining/keeping Silesia did for Prussia. People (such as Urquiza) and hence events will change and this may possibly have huge consequences, but nothing obviously predictable.

Nothing Ever Happens In South America, amirite? Because those European countries actually have events that matter, unlike in South America where they just don't because of reasons.
 
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Well i read your point of divergence different, if Entrerios maitain his independence, until 1825, it prossible that when la Banda oriental declare his independene Entrerios will support la banda oriental as a way to escape of the Brasilean "tutelage", so Argentine, Entrerrios and Uruguay enter in a war against Brasil wich will ended in a continuity of countries as buffer estates between argentina and brasil, that probable mantain a strong series of mutual defence alliance and strong diplomatic ties.
In this situation i could see a more succesfull farraouphila rebelion, with entrerrios and uruguay support, so know we have 3 countries that could federate or at least strong support each other independence, countries that are ideak for european colonization, and this way you get buttefkay away, la Guerra Grande and La guerra de la triple Alianza, with end result of a more rich and prosperous Paraguay and a poorer Brasil( rio grande do sul and santa catarina are the one of the richest brasilean regions)
 
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