Brazilian Empire without the Paraguayan War

yofie

Banned
Would the Empire of Brazil have lasted sometime beyond 1889 if the Paraguayan War (aka War of the Triple Alliance) had not taken place - or had lasted a much shorter time than in real life?

I know that without such a war, Brazil would have much less debt than OTL and the army would not have become so strong so soon (and of course they would have been helped greatly by British soldiers if there was a war like that at all). But Pedro II would still have been ailing in the 1880s, his sons (the natural heirs) would have still been long dead, and he would still not have wanted his daughter to rule after him (and his son-in-law would, I think, still have abdicated as the heir). Therefore, I'm not sure if a monarchy in Brazil would really have continued anyway like that. What do you think?
 

yofie

Banned
Coming to think of it, it seems to me that slavery gets abolished in Brazil according to the same schedule as OTL just about, while the army might take longer than OTL to get stronger (it becomes Positivist in any event) and thus stage a coup against the royal family (say, 5-10 years later than OTL). After all, Pedro II was just 63 (soon to be 64) when he was exiled in 1889 and just 66 when he died, and he got deathly ill with pneumonia well after his exile to France; give him a few more years of ruling and of being reasonably healthy, and he'll get exiled and get the pneumonia then.
 
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